Oct

3

 This spring Las Vegas gave 14-to-1 odds on the San Francisco Giants winning the World Championship. They gave roughly the same odds to the Houston Astros and the Washington Nationals.

Here are the 3 teams records as of the end of the season:

Houston 101 wins, 61 losses, .623, won the American League West by 21 games

Washington 97 wins, 65 losses, .599, won the National League East by 20 games

San Francisco 64 wins, 98 losses, .395, finished in last place in the National League West, 40 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers

The Major League Baseball Giants have won more games than any other team in the history of baseball. They have the most victories of any professional sports team in American history. There are more Giants players enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame than any other franchise in MLB history.

The last time the Giants were this bad was in 1984-1985 when they finished last in their division both years and were a combined 68 games under .500. In 1985 they hit bottom, winning 62 games and losing 100.

Steve Ellison writes: 

Anybody thinking of taking such bets should follow the strategy outlined by Bacon to assess the probabilities implied by the odds and the resulting house edge. For example, if the Giants are at 14-1, the implied probability is 1/15 or about 7%. Now consider the odds on every other team and see what they add up to.

The last time I did this with the odds to win the Stanley Cup at a casino, the total percentages added up to 167%. That works out to about a 40% house edge! That seems an impossible level of vig for finding an overlay.
 


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