Oct

3

People have a propensity and desire for a story to explain the events that occur. These often reflect spurious correlations. An extreme example would be the schizophrenia where a narrative is created from real or imagined facts that to most don't make sense. A similar thing occurs when humans create patterns out of random elements, for example star constellation showing pictures, or trends in random stochastic data. News often falls prey to this when they say stocks up on x or y occurring as if it is a story with causal links.

In large complex systems it is very difficult to accurately discern the causal chain of events, and even more difficult to predict. Simplification and reducing variables can help though.


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

Archives

Resources & Links

Search