Sep

6

 Just finished Superforecasting by Phil Tetlock. I feel that someone else on this site reviewed this book but can't say for certain. As a cross asset class trader and speculator, this book is the right combo of intelligence and irreverence. It is very digestible and one can whip through it pretty quick and really helped me just remember the power of process and accountability. If you liked, Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, or The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki, then you will probably enjoy this as well.

A couple of key points as it applies to investing:

- Total lack of accountability that he cites in the mainstream media as it pertains to forecasting geopolitics is pervasive in the financial media as well.
- Certainty is an illusion and we are playing a game of probabilities
- It's not our persona that is responsible for our profits but our process and our adherence to executing it and constantly looking to improve it.
- Be a fox and not a hedgehog (metaphors for one who is adaptable vis-a-vis one who is stuck in a position)
- understand our neurological makeup insofar as how it determines impulsive investing decisions and juxtapose that to your process to blend the two.
- devastating mistakes can be made over misinterpreting the smallest details.


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