Aug

10

We have seen Korea crises before. Panic abounds. Then markets bloom, again.

Well, one can never know when this phenomenon will fail and panic might be well founded. But based on logical imagination of how the supposedly irrational dictator also knows not to get pulverized on one hand and based on the history of how such panic has been induced from time to time and then dissipated…

Not sure, where to get the precise dates (week of heightened rhetoric N Korea style) and the price action through that week and next. So excusing myself out yet again from trying to count such things out. Perhaps a spec will have ways to extricate such dates and might run numbers.

This note leaves a hypothesis, the Dictator is either the smartest Put Writer in this world or is being deployed by the smartest Put Writers in the world to indulge in collection of wages of selling fear and panic, from time to time.

Peter Ringel replies:

I guess some Wyckoff-style manipulation goes on with North-Korea related news. Once the news is on Bloomberg it's old news. There is intelligence about NK every day - there are talks with NK every day ( someone, somewhere ) - there are new developments every day | yet only sometimes the news reach Bloomberg & co.

One explanation could be, that geopolitical risks are not well understood and managers go into cash once NK news hit Bloomberg.

This should make NK news a great tool if someone wants to shake out equity bulls.

(Sorry, I offer lots of opinion, but few facts)


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