Jun

27

 The scenic Georgian mountain town Kazbegi is less than 10km to the Russian border. One afternoon we decided to bicycles there. After about 3km there was a tunnel of about 2km long. It's dark inside and we could see barely the light at the other end. As we entered, there were some cars with lights so we could see the way. But when the last car of the group passed us nearly 300m inside, it became pitch dark looking forward.

I tried to ride forward but felt something very strange. I had a hard time controlling the bike. For less than 20 seconds, I brake but then felt my hands and one knee on the ground and the bike lying down. I don't know why and how i fell but instinct told me to stand up quickly because vehicles can arrive very soon. So I did that and pulled the bike up and started walking back toward the light. My wife was ok as she stopped very early trying to call me. I was not much hurt except some scratch on the knee. I think i was very lucky.

But anyhow, the point I want to make is that I couldn't control the bike in the dark. It started fishtailing, if that is the right word, or swinging from side to side much like the front tire was flat. Now thinking about it, without sight my mind had to rely on other senses that are much slower than vision, so the control was out of sync.

Perhaps there is a lesson here for trading. The reason market swings up and down is that the market participants trade in the dark. They rely on senses that are much lagged behind. So even when the market fell, traders don't know why and how it fell.

So a better vision is indispensable.


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