May

15

 "A Demographic Theory of War: Population, power, and the 'slightly weird' ideas of Gunnar Heinsohn":

"What about America and Europe?"

"Except for its white population, which is falling, America is in demographic neutrality. Europe, however, is in demographic capitulation. Several European countries have birth rates so low they are committing demographic suicide.

Supposedly, the EU was formed because Europeans were tired of fighting. 'Five hundred years of war is enough,' they said. But there is a great lie here.

Why wasn't four hundred years of war enough? Or three hundred?

The real reason Europeans decided to stop killing each other is that they were no longer having big families. They had no more superfluous sons to burn on the battlefield. I talk about these things in my book. I will talk about them today, as well."

"Your book hasn't been published in English," I said. "A demographic theory of war and terror could be a tough sell to a military audience in London." Heinsohn smiled. "Generals understand. If you don't have children today, you won't have soldiers tomorrow.

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

Heinsohn's economic theories are interesting to me. He is another creditista - i.e. someone who thinks credit is the oxygen for the voluntary systems of exchange that human beings have spontaneously created. But I doubt he would let this amateur into the Otto Steiger club; they join nearly everyone else in the academic world in believing that central banks are somehow essential to commerce.

I don't think anyone can argue successfully with the "youth bulge" theory as it applies to street crime and mob violence; but I wonder if it explains much about how the really bad wars start. There were no "surplus" young males in France, Prussia, Austria or Britain in 1790. There were in Russia, but the Russians were brought into the several Napoleonic Wars by their allies; they were not the ones who started the official killing. There was no demographic bulges in Spain, Germany and Japan in the 1930s or in the United Kingdom, France, Austria and Germany, net of emigration, in the 1910s.

In any case, if demography starts wars, it does not pay for them. For that you need central government taxation and the central banks that can turn government credit into payment, which takes us back to Heinsohn's economics…..


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  1. Ed on May 15, 2017 9:34 pm

    So take that equation and then import hordes of low IQ males and an elite interested in permanent population change. what is the outcome? We will soon find out.

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