Apr

1

The last major change in Federal tax law (excluding 1986, which was not, IMNHO "major") the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. It was also adopted into law in August by a newly-elected President.

There were a few differences. The ERTA had no serious opposition. It was introduced by the Democrats; Dan Rostenkowski, the newly-elected Chairman of Ways and Means, was the initial sponsor. The bill passed the House on July 29, 1981 (323–107), the Senate on July 31, 1981 (by voice vote), was reported by the joint conference committee on August 1, 1981; agreed to by the Senate on August 3, 1981 (67–8) and by the House on August 4, 1981 (282–95) and signed by President Reagan on August 13, 1981.

I have no doubt that the current bill will be introduced by Congressman Brady, the current Chair of Ways and Means, and that it will make it from committee to the House floor. The odds are also better than even that the Republicans will give it a majority vote; but there is absolutely no chance that the bill will pass the Senate on a voice vote.

So, the matter will come down to a guess on the likelihood that the Senate will adopt new rules or a precedent that will effectively nullify the ability of the minority to hold up legislation by talking it to death.

PredictIt makes Gorsuch's confirmation a near certainty.

It is difficult to see how the odds against "tax reform" will be significantly worse.

As to what will be the final compromise that produces the actual bill…. ERTA ended up being named Kemp-Roth, even though neither of its Republican sponsors thought it went nearly far enough towards gutting the absurdity that is U.S. income tax law.


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