Jan

30

While everyone is in a lathered-up blather about executive orders and screeching, we gotta keep our eyes on the ball. I for one can't get sucked up into political noise when there's money to be made.

Nearly everyone I speak to is looking for three things:

1. A pullback in equities.
2. Interest rates have bottomed and will now approach more historically normal levels.
3. Volatility is bound to increase in the coming months and perhaps years.

And the degree of which I am hearing this makes me quite certain none of these are in the cards. Tomorrow may be a great day to sell equities, shorter term, on any strength. The month of February should be, by my reasoning, a gentle, sane chop with an upward bias, in a bigger, grander, continued bull market. As far as rates go–I don't know, but I am surprised at the lopsidedness of sentiment regarding #2, above. But as the late kid from another (classier, as it were!) suburb of Cleveland used to say, "Don't fight the Fed."


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3 Comments so far

  1. Jay Bower on January 30, 2017 5:37 pm

    I follow on #1 & #2. #3 seems very likely to happen, though. What basis other than rudimentary contrarianism makes you think volatility will drop?

  2. Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Recent Market Optimism Justified? | Day Trading Journal on February 5, 2017 7:35 am

    […] Ralph Vince has a warning about Trump Effects: […]

  3. Dash of Insight – Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Market Optimism Justified? on February 5, 2017 10:41 am

    […] Ralph Vince has a warning about Trump Effects: While everyone is in a lathered-up blather about executive orders and screeching, we gotta keep our eyes on the ball. I for one can’t get sucked up into political noise when there’s money to be made. Nearly everyone I speak to is looking for three things: 1. A pullback in equities. 2. Interest rates have bottomed and will now approach more historically normal levels. 3. Volatility is bound to increase in the coming months and perhaps years. And the degree of which I am hearing this makes me quite certain none of these are in the cards. […]

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