Jan

28

10 Reasons, from Duncan Coker

January 28, 2017 |

No one asked, but here is a qualitative list, some have been tested but not all.

10 reasons to be bullish US equities

1) stocks futures term structure is positive carry
2) term structure of bonds positive slope (1 vs 5 vs 10 vs 30)
3) overall CAROR of SP since 2000 of 4.6% is well below average
4) crude and natural gas near decade lows
5) credit is expanding
6) strong dollar good for consumers
7) global trade has doubled since 2000
8) ending of marijuana prohibitions
9) solar and battery technologies
10) prospect of tax reductions

10 reasons to be bearish US equities

1) 20 trillion in US debt to refund next decade
2) 16 years of war since 9/11
3) Inflation cutting into real returns
4) Euro affects on Southern Europe
5) tariffs or VAT hurt consumption
6) possible restrictions on flow of labor
7) poverty rates in US still high at 15%
8) entitlements underfunded
9) single party rule overreach
10) education cost/benefit in decline


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