Jan

17

Since Jan 1st 2000 to Dec 31st 2015

Total $SPY returns for all days 92.71 points

returns on 1dom + fed day (most important days) are 89.02 pts (about 97% returns captured by doing hard work on 322/4025 days (8%))

The year gone by 2016 is a different story.

Total $SPY returns are 23.95 pts and on most important days the returns are a mere 0.71 pts (20 of them out of 252 days)

So where did the returns shift to?

answer -> 11-15th trading day

2016 $SPY returns 23.95 pts

Returns on 11,12,13,14,15th trading days combined are 24.14 pts (60/252 = ~24 % days)

Conclusion, work load increased in 2016 from 8% to 24%, a 200 % rise in work hours. A 2017 wish is reduce in the lower working hours!

Kim Zussman writes: 

I also checked whether the past 16 years were trendy for stocks.

If today's close was above 100D moving average, return from today's close to tomorrow's close. ">100DMA" (mean)

If today's close was below 100D moving average, return from today's close to tomorrow's close. "<100DMA" (mean):

Two-sample T for >100DMA vs <100DMA

                   N     Mean    StDev  SE Mean
>100DMA  2766  0.00025  0.00824  0.00016 T=-0.06
<100DMA  1394   0.0003   0.0179  0.00048

>>almost the same.  However, as expected daily returns were less volatile when the market was going up:
 
Test for Equal Variances: >100DMA, <100DMA

95% Bonferroni confidence intervals for standard deviations

                   N       Lower      StDev      Upper
>100DMA  2766  0.0079943  0.0082355  0.0084912
<100DMA  1394  0.0171828  0.0179134  0.0187065

F-Test (normal distribution)
Test statistic = 0.21, p-value = 0.000

Levene's Test (any continuous distribution)
Test statistic = 540.84, p-value = 0.000


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