Hey Ralph, from anonymous

January 9, 2017 |

VIX opens Monday at new lows; but chart seems VERY BULLISH. What say you?

Ralph Vince responds: 

I'm looking at the yield curve in constant maturity treasuries, the 10 year duration on out, which tells the tale of the market's health — it's currently very bullish shape. When the 20 yr yield > 30 yr yield or a big concave point at about the 20 year duration, I'll get worried.

Volume hasn't given us a short term sell here yet….

Three week plurality of NYSE Most actives has still not gotten oversold………..since way before the election.

Quality spreads in the credit markets starting to give it up, very bullish for equities, and the shape the big indexes on the charts is verrrrrrrrrrry.

Vix may see little spikes here and there, but I think this [stock market]  is a runaway train, and I think it's going to blow everyone apart who gets in it's way for a while. This is the perfect backdrop, everyone trying to call a top, everyone THINKING sentiment is too bullish, people's thinking all occluded from politics and the dyspepsia therefrom.

This is a runaway train.





Speak your mind

2 Comments so far

  1. astro the dog on January 10, 2017 1:45 pm

    If you would please post when you have time, of ‘those that are calling for a ‘Top’ at these levels or slightly higher, or even much higher levels.

    When you get time of course.

  2. Arch Stanton on January 10, 2017 6:48 pm

    “20 yr yield” means the yield of 30 year paper issued 10 years ago?


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