Nov

17

So, in effect, the markets have tightened monetary conditions without the Fed acting. If the Fed raises rates in December, this will place some additional downward pressure on both M and V, and hence on nominal GDP. Thus, the markets have reduced the timeliness and potential success of the coming tax reductions.

Another negative initial condition is that the dollar has risen this year, currently trading close to the 13 year high. The highly relevant Chinese yuan has slumped to a seven year low. These events will force disinflationary, if not deflationary forces into the US economy. Corporate profits, which had already fallen back to 2011 levels will be reduced due to several considerations. Pricing power will be reduced, domestic and international market share will be lost and profits of overseas subs will be reduced by currency conversion.

Similarly, the unveiling of QE1 raised expectations of a runaway inflation. Yet, neither happened. The economics are not different. Under present conditions, it is our judgment that the declining secular trend in Treasury bond yields remains intact.

John Floyd writes: 

The conclusion they draw demands some merit in my view while we await further info. But, apart from recent media coverage the US$ is basically unchanged for the year, see attached chart of the TWI. While the Fed clearly considers the US$ by their own models the impact is not exceedingly large.

On the US I would ask this question. If corporations have not been confident to hire full time employees, expand in R and D, capital spending, etc. over the past several years is something going to change over the next few? Even with a HIA, tax cuts, etc.?

Outside of new info it is likely that the floor of rates has risen across the curve in the US but the secular trend not changed.

I think the more interesting and potentially profitable question is what does Brexit, the US election, upcoming geopolitical events, and macro imbalances outside the US imply for asset prices?


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