In every election since 1984 and in 19 of the 22 elections since the Composite Index was introduced in 1923, the S&P 500 Index has been the most reliable gauge of Presidential election results. If the Index on election day is higher than it was three months earlier, the incumbent party retains the White House. 2181 is the magic number; that was the close on August 8th. Back to life not lived through "the news"….

Andy Aiken writes: 

I am also low-news/high-information. I seek out primary sources, e.g. read the academic paper or CBO study instead of a journalism student's usually flawed interpretation of it. As Nietzsche said, "All things are subject to interpretation. Whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth." The major media in the US have been speaking power to truth for a long time.





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2 Comments so far

  1. Derek Morgan on October 18, 2016 12:32 pm

    The current quotes for the Iowa Futures Market are thoroughly in favor of a certain candidate, not sure how their accuracy compares to the S&P 500.

  2. John on October 19, 2016 5:45 pm

    The most reliable gauge? What other possible gauges did you analyze? Does the 3 month period end when the market closes on election day? If so, did you compare it to the reliability of various forms of exit polling conducted through 4 PM Eastern on election day? How were you able to conclude that the gauge is actually predictive?


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