Sep

6

 "People in Los Angeles are getting rid of their cars"

Uber and Lyft have already devastated investments in taxi medalions. Their ride sharing applications will cause the car manufacturing industry to shrink from the current peak. Replacement parts may increase as the average fleet wears out rather than ages out.

Watch LA traffic to determine if the increase in ride sharing causes congestion to actually decrease. A decrease in congestion may result in a decrease in the demand for transportation infrastructure, and lower profits for specialty construction equipment and contractors. (I tried to convince the local county government not to fund the extension of DC Metrorail and let software apps handle the growth in travel. Obviously, I failed to convince them.)

Be careful with investments in toll roads or toll road bonds (short opportunities?). Income of parking company REIT's may also suffer at some point, but this may be hidden by capital gains if interest rates remain below market clearing levels.


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