Jul

25

Will someone tell Shiller and his followers that p/e's must be considered relative to interested rates. The value of an annuity growing at g is 1 + g /(1 +i) times a factor or two.

Ralph Vince writes: 

Thank you. Anyone who doesn't accept this isn't in the present moment, which is the most inflective moment in finance in my lifetime so far, and few moments in history with more opportunity and peril.

Interest rates are where they are on the planet because there is cash in such ample supply no one is willing to pay a damn thing for it.

Sitting on it, not exposing it to risk, is to expose it certain loss.

Anyone getting their mailboxes stuffed with all kinds of institutions begging them to borrow money?

This money must find propositions of some degree of risk, or it loses with certainty, every equity, every damn wigwam out there, everything is starting to shake and we've never been in a situation where a FACTOR of cash, a FACTOR that is measured in significant digits, is coming downstream.

Alex Castaldo interjects:

Excuse me but… If we receive one dollar a year from now, (1+g) dollars 2 years from now, (1+g)^2 the next year and so forth… and we discount at the rate i, then the present value of this growing annuity is  (1+i)/(i-g)


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  1. anon 2 on July 25, 2016 8:29 pm

    Handy chart from the St. Louis Fed showing the purchasing power of the dollar since the inception of the Federal Reserve,

    http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2016/07/Purchasing-Power-of-the-Buck.png

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