Jun

2

It is interesting to consider whether certain month's employment announcements tend to be consistently bullish or bearish. A former employee,  writes to me that the May employment numbers have been quite bearish for stocks.

Bill Rafter writes:

The NFP report is always murky to me. It always needs "interpretation" which is why it looks different several days after its release. The big interests (from the media, at least) are the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs. Both are the result of rather obtuse calculations. I prefer the growth of payroll tax receipts which require no interpretation. The source is the Daily Treasury Statement, effectively the bank account of the government. Attached is the data from last week; no change in appearance since. It may not agree with the early or late interpretation of the NFP report, but it speaks truth about the actual job situation.

Stef Estebiza writes: 

Employment data are smoke and mirrors, are more a political need to do to accept further cuts/taxes and justify these policies. The new jobs are precarious and at reduced wages.

anonymous writes: 

I suspect that I read about the Chair's views on the unemployment rate in years past, but is it safe to presume that the numerator smoke/mirror terms cancel out the denominator smoke/mirror terms?

Or does the science of people counting treat the employeds different than the idleds at the tabulation level?

I've generally treated the unemployment rate as a good bit more reliable than the overall jobs number.


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2 Comments so far

  1. zatara on June 4, 2016 9:18 am

    Vic, you have changed the way I think about markets and trading, but I have to say you are an awful writer, the above post confirms this, part of it is an obtuse way of putting things, half the time I have no clue what you are on about?!

    Ps I am rereading P.S. and it is a book of utter genius, but written in the most unappealing tedious way possible.

  2. zatara on June 4, 2016 9:19 am

    It might be because you are a maths guy at heart, maths guys cant write well and vice versa, different parts of the brain.

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