Apr

13

A few years ago there was a discussion on the site about an esteemed Dailyspecer's paper:
"Modeling the Active versus Passive Debate
"

That article generated a considerable amount of hate mail from investment "professionals" who felt the piece threatened their buy-and-hold livelihood. I consoled myself with some rather unkind thoughts.

Roger Arnold writes:

This reminds me of the discussion we had here 15 years or so ago when Triumph of the Optimists was published.

When I discussed the subject of the outsized returns of equities versus other asset classes with the principal author, Elroy Dimson, he said that in his opinion the 20th century returns were unique and not likely to be repeated over the next century. I won't go into his reasoning here as we discussed it then and I'm not sure if It's been discussed during my absence from the list.

The gist of the conversation though was that everything that provided the positive drift to publicly traded equities has been exhausted.

The positive drift is what made passive management a plausible money management scenario.


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