There are times when I don't want to be long stocks identifying them in the past is quite easy but in the future it's a different ballgame. What I have decided, right or wrong, is that I want to be fully invested and working the long side of the market.

Unless… we are entering a recession. Stock prices do miserably during a recession everything else I'm willing to hold through. Thus the very little long-term market timing I do is based on that idea; side step recessions. To that end I have done a lot of work on recession indicators none of them are negative at this time. Happy trails to all.

anonymous comments: 

Larry, I agree being flat during most of a recession, not short but flat. Short you are likely to wait too late to recognize the recovery. I would suggest that recessions are the best time to make quick entries in panic and exits on the long side quickly after a nice pop up day.





Speak your mind

3 Comments so far

  1. Anatoly Veltman on April 8, 2016 7:00 pm

    Note the prevailing 1800-2100 range in the S&P, and note the chart pattern of how she sold off from the 2100s highs both in the summer, and precisely the same in the winter of 2015. Do you feel lucky right here again, Larry?

  2. Stephen Moore on April 8, 2016 9:46 pm

    When you say none of the recession indicators are “negative now”, do you mean none of them are predicting recession now

  3. Anonymous on April 9, 2016 8:24 am

    Steve Wynn says its all about scale in business. As market practitioners what is one’s view of his claim. He is right when looking at the very successful business people as its breathtaking to think about the speed at which their wealth accumulates through being right place right time and ambitious. Is he ignoring luck as a factor? I doubt anyone who is not successful is thinking I didnt succeed because i didn’t understand scale.


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