Mar

13

Time to check on wait times between bear markets:

SP500 weekly closes 1955-present to look for instances when this week's close was more than 20% down from the highest close of the prior 250 weeks (~5 years). Then I checked how many weeks had elapsed since the prior first -20% week.

As of last week's close it has been 222 weeks since the last -20% week, which occurred in Dec 2011.

35 bear markets were identified this way, and the great bull market of the 90s ranks longest between bear markets. Our current wait of 222 ranks 4/35, which could help explain the complaints about helicopter Ben and his mom.

Date          weeks btw bears
03/05/01 644
10/12/87    282
06/04/62    234
02/22/82    211
09/26/66    210
02/28/05    191
12/03/73    191
09/12/77    182
01/19/70    173
06/30/08    159
07/25/11    149
03/14/88    22
11/07/11     15
06/13/05     15
07/11/88     14
06/04/01     13
10/31/88     13
01/03/78     13
05/17/82     12
04/06/70     11
08/25/08     8
03/18/74      8
09/17/62      7
07/09/62      5
12/05/11      4
12/31/73      4
09/15/08      3
06/25/01      3
08/01/88      3
04/04/88      3
02/06/78      3
10/03/77      3
01/21/74      3
07/30/62      3
01/16/78      2
 


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