The Iowa Caucus system for Presidential candidate selection began in 1972 for Democrats and 1976 for Republicans. Since they started 40 years ago for the GOP, every Republican candidate who received the party nomination had these results:

(1) First in Iowa, Second in New Hampshire (2) Second in Iowa, First in New Hampshire

Ford, Reagan (twice), G.H.W. Bush, Dole, G.W. Bush, Romney all had these results.

Among the present candidates Donald Trump is the only one who has passed the 1-2 test.





Speak your mind

3 Comments so far

  1. Russell on February 10, 2016 8:08 pm

    Being a European Brit, the comments and sound bites from Donald Trump across the Atlantic often seem racist, extreme and plain dumb. But I’m obviously missing something, even though he speaks English, he comes from a very different culture socially and politically for me to be familiar with. So I would like to know from all the many educated Americans on this website , does Donald Trump honestly have a chance of becoming President of the good old USA ?

  2. Anonymous on February 12, 2016 7:30 pm

    As of this day 2/12/2016, on paddypower.com, Hillary is even money to win the presidency. Trump is 7:2 and Sanders is 7:1. Trump probably has a better chance of becoming president then Sanders does.

  3. Aharon on February 14, 2016 11:06 pm

    @Russell: he has a non-negligible but not especially high chance, in my opinion (the opinion of some person on the Internet).

    As for the meat of this post: 10 data points, with slightly smudged, fudgey results? Some of which involved incumbents? Is that enough to draw any conclusion from? Not that I disagree with your implicit conclusion…


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