Feb

10

Negative Rates, from Jim Sogi

February 10, 2016 |

Negative rates are:

1. Tax on cash.
2. Service charge, like a bank.
3. Currency war weapon. Weaponize as Mr. E used to say.
4. Policy tool to encourage risk and capital movement.

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

Negative rates are, as James writes, a tax on short-term IOUs from government-guaranteed issuers; but they are a subsidy for actual cash currency. The banks already charge for holding our "cash"; and anyone who has held significant balances already knows that their cash has been trashed in terms of any returns from interest.

Those of us sitting here in the back of the bleachers see the central banks as doing everything they can to force the banks to "go long" - i.e. push the maturity of their reserves much further out than they have been. Could it be that we have a new consensus among the countries that have dealings in size in each other's currencies? They will each do their best to enable their national Treasures, state-owned enterprises and retirement systems to continue to fund the transfer payments that are now at least 2/3rds of total government expenditures and no one will worry about exchange rates because capital flows between countries are now a trivial concern compared to the actual and potential losses of capital itself from a "crash".


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