Jan

18

I think the key to levered macro speculation is that the people who do it have to make public statements to move everyone else to their point of view. The goal they have is to make everyone have the same view of the world. Their weakness is that they have to express their opinion to others to make it viable before they make their big move that finally reverses the prices.

When you get the infrequent statement from a flexion, that is time to switch from short term patterns to wave trading. The flexions don't boast and brag all the time and tell you what they are doing. They wait until they can pounce to tell of their positioning.

They go silent once the market starts going their way and let the other folks do the work. Once you get into a reflexive pattern like oil prices where they have to pump more to get the same amount of money as the price falls, the pattern trader is taking too much risk even if he wins on the buy side.


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