Nov

6

 Has anyone studied Art Cashin's claim that:

"When October is up over 7 percent, the result of the next two months — the so-called Santa Claus rally — is cut in half," UBS's director of NYSE floor operations told CNBC's

His research comes from Stovall from S&P, if I hear him right. Cashin says that instead of approx 3% benefit long drift you only should look for half of that because of the >7% rise in Oct.

anonymous writes: 

I have not studied his claim, but if he does not somehow factor in the relative strength of the market in months just prior to October, I'm not sure the observation is worth much. Presumably, the very week August and September of 2015 created a reset of sorts and the odds of a Santa Claus rally occurring this year are probably no worse than usual. Just my opinion of course. 

Jeffrey Hirsch writes: 

We have.

While I love Art Cashin, he and everyone else mistakenly calls the yearend rally the Santa Claus Rally. As defined by Yale Hirsch my illustrious father and mentor the Santa Claus Rally is the short 7-trading-day period cover the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 of the New Year. Most importantly as the songwriter in Yale has made clear: "If Santa Claus should fail to call, Bears may come to Broad and Wall." Here is the page from the 2016 Almanac and a slide image I use a presentations.

From Page 114: "Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street nearly every year, bringing a short, sweet, respectable rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January. This has been good for an average 1.4% gain since 1969 (1.4% since 1950). Santa's failure to show tends to precede bear markets, or times stocks could be purchased later in the year at much lower prices. We discovered this phenomenon in 1972."

The history of the Santa Claus rally:

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1 Comment so far

  1. Andrew McCauley on November 8, 2015 5:06 pm

    S&P 500 - When October is Strong it Pays to be Long

    For US investors the 6-month period that we are about to enter, is seasonally positive. Since 1970, the average return for the November to April period of 7% is inordinately larger than the average 1% return on offer for the May to October interval.

    We would also note that when October is strong it pays to be long. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has produced 14 previous Octobers with gains in excess of 3%. Rallies of greater than 3% in October had a tendency to enhance returns for the November to April period delivering an average return of 12.26% with an impressive 13 from 14 win rate (max 24.08%, min -4.47%).

    The average conditional return of 12.26% is statistically significant at the 1% level when compared to the mean return of 4.26% for all rolling 6-month periods from January 1970 onwards.

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