Oct

7

 I have noticed a discernable change in the last several dozen Uber rides I have taken across many distances and locales. For example: greater price variability for similar routes, more frequent surge pricing, drivers less familiar with the most direct route, errors in estimated pick up times, drivers quicker to cancel your pick up because you are not at the exact spot and time and therefore collect a penalty fee. Overall the experience and service is good and I continue to use but this is a significant shift from where it was.

Questions to ask: Is there somewhat of an S curve effect in what is happening at Uber? What does this say about other similar technologies? What happens if the competition begins to use the technology more, such as taxis? What does this say, if anything, about overall market valuations and expectations in the future for other market classes, for example the biotech index (NBI) which are imputing certain levels of future growth?

anonymous writes: 

Drivers are figuring out that the normal fares paid by Uber in non-surge times are not commensurate with time, cost of vehicle, maintenance on vehicle, risk of accident and injury, and dealing with drunk inconsiderate riders, so the supply of drivers is not meeting demand. So basic supply-demand economics is causing more surge pricing to encourage more supply of drivers willing to drive at the higher rate.


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2 Comments so far

  1. Jayson Pifer on October 7, 2015 3:42 pm

    By similar, I suppose you mean AirBNB and perhaps CitiBike to some extent. I would suggest that taxi drivers themselves would be incented to move to Uber if they can afford their own vehicle. Medallion holders will go with their best bet and lobby for legal change rather than adopting the new technology.

    It appears that the battle lines are very similar with AirBNB. No real crossover on actual property for rentals, but AirBNB directly takes away profit from the hotel industry. They won’t want a central site to commoditize their product so will seek a regulatory solution.

    Citibike I threw in there since it’s my new favorite transportation but also falls into the shared property use category. I notice that bike rental places nearby have closed down, even though I imagine they aren’t a direct competitor.

    Anecdotally, i’ve seen bike and car ownership drop in my circle and assume this will be a broader trend in metro areas.

  2. Arch Stanton on August 23, 2016 1:06 pm

    Uber enthusiasm has driven MFIN, one of Rocky’s names, down to $5.

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