Jul

31

Paddy Power, the Irish/UK bookmaker, has their current odds for the 16 election. With Hillary leading at evens odds and presumably she will stay close to this over the next year when will market participants react to her beating the drum on raising short term capital gains and how may that play out to benefit flexions and DC real estate in the guise of wealth redistribution?

anonymous writes: 

Stock Trader's Almanac 2016 sneak preview:

ONLY SIX ELECTION YEAR DECLINES GREATER THAN 5% SINCE 1896 Presidential election years are the second best performing year of the four-year cycle, producing losses of greater than 5% in only six of those thirty years. Incumbent parties lost power in five of those years. Five losses occurred at the end of the second term. FDR defeated Hoover in 1932 and was re-elected to an unprecedented third term as WWII ravaged Europe. Election year 2016 marks the end of the incumbent party’s second term, increasing the probabilities of a weak year.


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