Jul

20

Gold, from anonymous

July 20, 2015 |

 Questions for speculators to ask themselves:

1. Considering secondary and tertiary effects, what would one have done differently on Friday with foreknowledge of the one minute Armageddon this morning in Gold?

2. What predictive sequencing of runs, cross market relationships and other contemporaneous information of a quantifiable and repeatable nature (if any) existed before the close on Friday that would has encouraged a short position?

3. Is it predictive of anything that the EUR, the JPY, the S&P 500, Oil & the bonds couldn't give a flying '##+#' that Gold experienced a moment of disquietude? i.e they barely budged.

4. Has the true enemy shown his face? Are previous time and magnitude studies of substantial moves 'out of time zone' as it were, predictive of anything more than similar studies during New York hours ? Is it sustainable that the pressure valve just blown will not effect other markets further down the pipeline.

5. A perspicacious study of documents/ agreements with one's Prime Broker may reveal that in liquidating a client's trades due to insufficient margin they may be allowed to act defensively, with 'predictive discretion' and, intriguingly, there may not be any language confirming whether or not the broker or a related entity, in the case of forced liquidation, is or is not allowed to act as a principal.

anonymous writes: 

I am not taking a victory lap since I am flat gold (but it always amazes me when this chart stuff works, which partly answers the bloomberg news rhetorical headline).

"Gold Rout Spurs Search for Answers as Prices Sink to 5-Year Low":

The rout in gold isn't showing any signs of slowing down. In about 15 minutes during Asian trading hours on Monday, prices fell the most in two years, sliding below key levels watched by investors who use chart patterns to trade. While gold later recovered some of the losses, it's still at a five-year low and headed for a sixth day of declines. Gold for immediate delivery retreated 2 percent to $1,112.04 a ounce at 11:23 a.m. in London.


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4 Comments so far

  1. Ed on July 20, 2015 6:22 pm

    It was a dog that didn’t bark signal

  2. TC on July 20, 2015 7:34 pm

    Having worked for many years at what is now called a Tier 1 precious metal dealer, I always smile when this happens. Heres why-
    1. Folks always assume the worst, eg, forced liquidation, dealer error, some esoteric mind numbing algo gone wild.
    2. At this level of position, one does not casually liquidate a client
    3. There are players who enter this size transaction, perhaps as a short, perhaps an attempt to crash the market, who knows?
    4. The upper tier dealers are quite able to buy/sell very significant amounts without disturbing the ripples we see all day
    5. My personal experience has been that those who know don’t talk about it, those who have no experience or enjoy guessing games, write these articles
    Hope this helps
    Also, this is one mid-size market commentator, who has been publicly short gold for about 60 handles now, so, the weakness in the gold market, was not really a secret.

  3. Anonymous on July 21, 2015 11:05 am

    how does one get over the disgust of suboptimizing exits, leaving money on table, missing opportunity, and just accept a good process that one thinks they have?

  4. Jim Davis on July 21, 2015 12:34 pm

    Not sure about the 1 minute opportunity, but I’ve been bearish on gold for many years , based on one simple metric.

    Every hustler and con man was selling to joe public, and the end of the world types, Zero Hedge, and pitchfork wielding Grandma’s were buying. Sorry, I want to be on the other side of that trade.

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