The only reasons why Europe is recovering (euphemism) are the collapse of the euro (ie almost a return to the old currencies (peseta, lira, franc and drachma, etc ..) and the collapse of oil.

Steve Ellison writes:

Stef, this is an excellent point, and there is a meal for a lifetime if one can understand and anticipate how markets move to correct imbalances. As one who trades only S&P 500 futures, I have noticed that every time that market sold off in the past 5 years ostensibly over Greek worries, the euro went down at the same time, which directly alleviated the root cause of Greek non-competitiveness. Soon enough, there was no longer any reason for the S&P 500 to decline further.

anonymous writes:

I threw challenge a few weeks back: could anyone test "5 year expected earnings" vs ES.

I'll re-post these links as a trailhead at least for how one might go about such a study:

"Expectations and the Valuation of Shares
", Burton Malkiel, John G. Cragg

And the book.


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