Apr

16

The markets have a plethora of different structures and associations with numbers. Some examples are:

1. Round numbers

2. Opening & closing times

3. Limits

4. Constantly changing magnitudes and significance placed thereupon (for example there were extended periods last summer when the SPU futures had daily ranges in the mid single digits and now it's a score (20) per day).

Much work is done splicing and dicing numbers and looking for statistically significant positive expectations based on various past conditionality.

As another part of that, I wonder whether or not the first, or second or third instance of some stimuli is more or less predictive than the other or others.

This has been brought up in my mind by the recent dance of the seven veils of many markets with many round numbers.

As a start, how about this:

1. Is the first break of a round more or less predictive than the second (assuming the market has reversed intermediately)?

2. Are moves of the same magnitude in the same or opposite directions of interest within a given timeframe?

3. More qualitatively, when a market breaks some predefined barrier (a round, a magnitude, a correlation coefficient et al) and subsequently does so again later, is this last move more likely to have the same sign/ opposite sign and will the magnitude be greater or lesser?

One might start today with a live test case to think over.

Gold Futures traded 1199.7 earlier after opening above the 1200 round in Asia… The market rallied up to 1208.8. If we break the round again we may start observing things like those set out above that may lead to a testable heuristic.


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