Apr

13

 I just saw this on twitter today: "Stanley Druckenmiller Lost Tree Club Speech".  I had never seen it before and found it fairly worthwhile to read.  Thoughts on finding situations to "bet big" on and also some interesting admissions on "biggest mistake" as well as biggest successes. I think that idea applies to bid qualitative ideas as well as quantitative or systematic ideas–viewing the strategy as what one is betting big on, vs. "the trade".

  
The strategy I have been developing that is new to me (within past 5 years) is using long term options to frame out these types of bets. Sometimes the leverage is extraordinarily cheap (in the way that I figure it).   

The mistake he discusses is interesting as he admits he had a compulsion that he felt was irrational, but could not resist it (lost 3B on tech stocks). Also some interesting thoughts on the economy and potential distortions created by government intervention. Very long intro that is easy to scan past if you dislike such things. Lastly I was amazed to find Dunavant Enterprises mentioned in the intro– it seems like the same "inner circles" alwasy resurface. 


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