Mar

12

I can't help thinking for the competition "what is a trader" what percentage bias it may have on the outcome to have the voters' thoughts on the winning entry exposed (i.e entry with favourable early views having a greater chance to go on and win it) with ballots where the entry is positioned in the queue. This kind of thing may influence markets and prices in addition to this competition.

Gary Rogan writes: 

Years ago in a college psychology course I had to devise and conduct an experiment. What it wound up being was walking up to women in a shopping center and asking them to rank the attractiveness of something like five men in photographs. In half of the attempts, they could see previous results and in the other one they could not. The previous results were fake and ranked "ugly" men quite high. The effect was quite significant, although now I'm having trouble quantifying it.


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2 Comments so far

  1. daniel watkins on March 12, 2015 3:10 pm

    Well, I am not a fake address as I have had comments posted here well before the contest. I don’t think “Yuri” is a fake because he is on the authorship list from way back.

    If you will google for Thorazine Brandon you will find a brilliant market called off of the 10/15/14 low, wherein he called for a new high. This seems easy now, in retrospect but it wasn’t so obvious then!

    Just saying …

  2. Melynda Nuss on March 14, 2015 12:12 pm

    I don’t think he’s claiming anyone faked votes. There’s just a general tendency to follow the herd. The thought is that once the first votes are in, the others will cluster around those early favorites once people see. People will see that “people like me” choose #50, so I’ll choose 50, too.

    That being said, that’s not the way it seems to be going. There are some early favorites, but later votes are all over the place. So these traders seem like they’re able to resist the psychological effect.

    That being said, Daniel Watkins, I like what you wrote a above in “Why Do You Trade?” It’s #18, but longer form. Very nicely done.

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