Mar

9

Perhaps it would not be remiss to express some thoughts I had over night.

1. Friday was perhaps the greatest loss in wealth ever.

2. Extraordinarily rare since the 90s for both stocks and bonds down 200. Actually only once since 1999. That in 2009.

3. Useful idiots attribute it to revision in expectations of fed increases.

4. But actually the rise had nothing to do with that but had to do with discounted value of returns on capital and lowering of inflation targets.

5. Amazing that good news can cause so much havoc.

6. But the market is the market. It will do what it wants.

7. But of course the stock market vigilantes, and now the bond market vigilantes will make it do the rite thing, especially before election.

8. Ephemeral things can cause great consternation.

9. The threat is worse than the execution.

10. They got me big yesterday. I actually make a nice little profit in SPU by getting out at 10 am.

11. However, I lost big in bonds, very big.

12. One will have to be more careful as the markets rise to new highs again. 

Jeff Rollert writes: 

It felt more like a systematic deleveraging. A balance sheet shrinkage, on both sides.

Anatoly Veltman writes: 

I think there is an important element missing from all these statistics. A drop such as Friday's is felt big by an SP futures long, because the SP futures long is very leveraged, while his currency exposure (hedge) is straight cash, unleveraged.

On the other hand, the real one day depreciation is miniscule for a holder of US stocks - as USD gained so much on the day. Compare a holder of US stocks Friday with an EU or UK person who held no stocks but their cash in the bank - and that person lost plenty, without being Long of US stocks.

Hernan Avella comments:

Anatoly, the reason why it was indeed very big is because you did not have the buffer of buying bonds, golds or oil. Furthermore, the 50-50 theoretical portfolio lost big on Friday on top of a bad streak of 5 down days out of the last 7, and now it's slightly down on the year.Now, when one accounts for stock market appreciation over the five year period as strictly "fundamental", "value of returns on capital", etc etc - one yet skips over a harder to quantify element of market truth: that Central Banks, with their long-standing zero interest policy, have left little alternatives for world wide investors but to pour cash into stocks the past five years. Some of that cash hasn't gone all in based on fundamental projections, it's just gone in. Like in "market will do what it wants". Enter one of the current day hot factors: EU is in dis-array. There is a lot of European capital that isn't investing based on long term returns on equity these days…They are paralyzed in fear of what next shoe will drop. So corrections such as Friday's are inevitable


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