Mar

30

P.S. One of the gravest errors in the area of testing and counting is the assumption that if something is statistically significant in one period it will be predictive in the next (in markets or life). 

My market views:

Europe UP as long as Ukraine and Greece do not worsen.

USA with strong $ has lost competitiveness vs rest of the world, revenues do not justify present stock prices.

The tax burden is increasing in America. It is likely that markets remain flat (fall on worsening data).

Before Europe solves the problem of Greece … and EU proceeds with the QE, before skies are blue again [much time will pass]

The world central banks all involved to bring rates into negative territory, didn't they learn anything from the competitive devaluations of 1930's.

Summers advised Janet to NOT raise rates (and so the $) …maybe bring about negative rates?

All these Trillions printed in anticipation of future earnings… in a global economy that will not restart… and not one billion flows to the underlying… the real economy. Consumers are to be listed in the WWF web site as endangered species.

There seems to be an inflation of red pills:
Blue pill, the strange vision ends, tomorrow you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want.
Red pill, you stay in Wonderland (rates negative and QE when needed), and they show you how deep is the white rabbit hole.

What are they waiting for? A miracle? Or the restart of the Chinese economy in April…

From 2009 to end 2014:
1514 total days, 27.53% of them "red 10 day" [positive 10 day momentum]

In 2008 it was only 11.81% (I am using S&P500 index, not futures).


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