Feb

4

 I just made a post on twitter about true psych regularities as opposed to things that only appear on contrived questionnaires given to college students to advance socialist agendas. The two that I know are true are the sold out bull effect, and one that is particularly quantifiable and weighty today. The tendency to have a chance for something very good to happen, and then to see it taken away, which causes grievous disappointment. I mean oil way up yesterday way above 50, up 5%. Hope, hope, hope. But then down 200 today. Hope disappears. Tremendous self recrimination. What other real psychological tendencies do you see from trading that are real and important rather than the college questionnaire stuff of the Nobel person designed to be self fulfilling of the flimsy hypothesis.

Stefan Martinek writes: 

The higher frequency of trading we have, the less happy and impulsive we are. A relatively large pool of impulsive sociopaths on intraday time frames can create a good mean-reversion environment.

Victor Niederhoffer replies: 

Could be bad for familial harmony also. 


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2 Comments so far

  1. anand on February 4, 2015 8:07 pm

    paranoia .. any distorted bubble which has a drop is because of the concerted efforts of an evil world order (silver and gold bugs lead the way on this phenomenon)

    delusions of grandeur / mania .. making a few % P&L gain

    obsessive compulsive disorder .. checking the price every few seconds for no reason (usually done when making a few % P&L gain .. when losing money looking away as much as possible)

  2. CC on February 8, 2015 6:43 pm

    The way a set-back makes it harder to follow methods that were previously automatic. True in sport and markets and often leading to a slump.

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