Jan

30

We can soon expect to hear the mumbo about how if January is down the market is likely to be down for the year et al. How many times does this have to fail before it loses its impact.

Rocky Humbert writes:

Feel free to call this "mumbo" — but there are hundreds of millions, if not billions, of US stock market positions that will exit if the market closes today below the 1960-2000 level. I am not predicting today's close and the probability of falling 40+ spu points is always very low (hence betting on this outcome has lousy odds).

However, I will predict with confidence that should these "stops" get triggered, you will be rubbing your eyes next week at the much lower prices you will see. 

Hernan Avella writes: 

What happened with the idea you championed back in December about the wisdom of the common man, that poured $36.5 billion into stock funds on Xmas week, marking the biggest inflows on record as U.S. stocks surged to record highs. Are those the positions that are looking to sell today? Enlighten us please.

Rocky Humbert writes: 

The "common man" will do just fine. It's the professionals who will be selling based on things such as this.

Anton Johnson writes: 

Wondering about the self-promoting Mebane Faber and his recently launched ETF buisness, I found this value nugget:

Cambria global value ETF (GVAL) return since inception (3-12-2014 till 1-28-2015) is ~ -19%.

'The Cambria Global Value ETF seeks investment results that closely correspond to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Cambria Global Value Index[…]The Index next separates the top 25% of these countries as measured by Cambria's proprietary long term valuation metrics. The Index then screens stocks with market capitalizations over $200 million. The Index is comprised of approximately 100 companies.'

anonymous writes:

Meb Faber likes to look at 12 month moving averages computed at the end of the month. For S&P we have:


Date              Close

1/30/2015       ??

12/31/2014     2058.9

11/28/2014     2067.56

10/31/2014     2018.05

9/30/2014       1972.29

8/29/2014       2003.37

7/31/2014       1930.67 

6/30/2014       1960.23

5/30/2014        1923.57

4/30/2014        1883.95

3/31/2014        1872.34

2/28/2014        1859.45

You can verify that he would be bearish if the end of January value is 1959.125 or below.

This I believe is the source of Rocky's numbers


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