Jan

29

 Well, everything is going to hell. Russia is still a problem, Greece seems to be turning into a trojan horse, the European QE, if confirmed by the data, will be fuel to the fire otherwise wasted money. The real QE for Europe would be fiscal union, it is not clear which masochism perverse wants to continue to kick the can despite all that is happening. They are destroying, structurally and industrially, European nations.

I think the Euro should yield against the $ next 2/3 months if will follow positive data, so I expect what happened from 15gen (hammer on European indices). Otherwise the $ will continue to parity, EUR$ 0.80/0.75 worst case. I think that pears are ripe in the US, so maybe sell the tops and put into treasury waiting for the second part of the year when better occasions are a possibility. Oil will rise in second part of 2015 (if not before).

I think Macro decision are faster than fact, but there is nothing worse than to inject money in an economy unable to recover because it was managed by opportunistic nations (politician/bureaucrats) not willing to cooperate.

Structurally, the QE will not have any improvement. It makes no sense to do austerity while the EU industrial system collapses and then six years later, they realized the error, try to revive the fortunes of the economy printing. The system to indebt nations and then manage them better, so loved by the IMF, seems to have become ingrained in Europe. My grandmother used to say, it was better when it was worse, and we were unaware of that, but she was right.


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