Dec

31

Zubin Al  writes: 

Each year I like to count the number of private jets parked during the holidays at the local FBO.  Many of the worlds richest people have homes here such as Bill Gates, Roberts of KKR, Charles Schwab, The Go Daddy guy, Dave Roux of Silverlake Partners…  and they all have private jets. The theory is that the rich know what's going on with the economy and is a tell for the future.

There are notably fewer jets this year. I counted 18 on Christmas and will update later today  on my way to foil big waves at the beach past the airport.  Usually the lot overflows to park jets on Maui and Oahu with 40 or more.

My take (and in theory the captain's of industry take)  is that this thing is not going to be over this next year, and will drag on.

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

Mr. Sogi I have had  numerous requests to interrupt you on my blog. when and  would you be a good time for that?

Zubin Al  writes: 

Usually around 1 pm Hawaii Time, maybe next week would be fine.  I just ask that you don't put me on the "spot" as you normally do when you ask me questions.  Pitch me some lobs for easy answers so I can avoid sounding too bad. 

Dec

31

Tweets-Dec/30/2020

December 31, 2020 | Leave a Comment

A sensible comment to a WSJ editorial of Holman Jenkins I bet there are more people suffering from anxiety and depression than there are people who died from the virus. All those small businesses that have closed. The isolation and disruption to your every day routines. 

Incumbent continues to do his best to reduce chances.

Bilious headline " us stocks drop after hope fades for expanded aid" 

Dec

30

Eddy Goldfarb, who is ninety-eight, created such classics as the bubble gun, chattering teeth, and Kerplunk! Here’s how he did it.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sKKan_Q9VU

Well I was always optimistic.
I always believed things are gonna turn out okay.
I annoy people with my optimism.
People who, why don't you face reality and stuff?
Well, I think I'm right.
I think being optimistic helps me a lot.

Before going to sleep the night before
I usually go over the events of the day
and review the problems encountered in my work.
During the night, everything becomes much clearer,
and even some of yesterday's problems are solved.
I sometimes think that I got a little help
from family and friends that are no longer with us.
Rain or snow, cloudy or sunny,
it's a new, wonderful opportunity that we are given.
It's going to be a big day.

Dec

30

Tweets-Dec/29/2020

December 30, 2020 | Leave a Comment

An abundance of yellow and abundance of all time highs for SP.

The woke that keeps on giving. about 50 times for at least 400 big points. whenever stimulus hopes are reduced the market plummet because not immediate gratification. Its always just a matter of time until d's ,male.

D's male a money out of r's and gain the week prize by augmenting the stimulus and making r's looks like scrooge until the r's reluctantly split the difference at first and then capitulate entirely to d's there by sanctifying that collectivism is all powerful, gov all

Powerful and wise and the individual doesn't know how to handle choice and capital at all.

Main contagion is the spread of woke among all the swamp and those who live there. r's are infected –afraid to rock the boat- upset their friends. r's keep succumbing to absurd biased views of dr. cattle. Supremes afraid of riots so don't wish to rocker's afraid of media.

Is they cover the son of the big guy and if as said they demean themselves by letting public have choice and business except on the coasts continue without draconian restrictions. phil kerpen has proper statistics on these matters.

Todays blog would have had prediction of seasonality in gold, review of NY posts tips for buying dogs and going with the sharps near the game and playing the under. all with direct correspondence to trading . also beautiful discussion of descent with modification form Princeton.

Guide to evolution and detailed discussion of Harvard trying to encourage aluminic to buy 10 venture capital pools they make up. Sure symptom of swan song of venture capital as Harvard has worst investment record of all by eschewing buying index funds and paying exorbitant.

One absurdity of Harvard fees to their employees is that they don't take into account the cost of raising capital. a normal hedge fund pays 10% fo the marketing manager who raises their money. Harvard is able to pull the wool over all the naïve profs by paying many employees.

20 times what the highest professor received. H points out that their adviser beat their bogey by x% and therefore made the endowment 20 million more than if had just bought an etf. you'd think that some prof would have the sense to point out the 100 flaws in this reasoning.

One wishes he had a fund of 50 billion under management and was paid inventive on how much a sector beats the bogey ( without regard to the misses) without regard to the funds the appeared from Heaven.

The Good one can only guess on how many fees are embedded in the 10 venture capital funds they offer to their naïve alumni . on the inside cover an ad for these funds of h magazine. you wouldn't believe things like this unless it was clear on the front cover.

Of course the below about H is just my opinion . however I would speculate that any errors I have made that paint a darker picture are counterbalanced many fold by darker items I have left out.

All attorneys should receive a course in the statistics with particular reference to what is the p probability of recording a sample of 10000 + where the percentage on one side is say 90% and another sample has a % on one side of (say 60% a knowledge of the binomial theorem and an ability to run rudimentary simulations is a good starter. the standard error of the outcome of observed from a sample of 10000 with p of 1/2 is 50 … If you observe say 5500 heads rather than the expected 5000 the chances of this occurring by chance is approx. 1 in billion.

Dec

30

Tweets-Dec/28/2020

December 30, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Hansen predicts that the progressives are holding their fire until after the Georgia elections and then they will

Lower the bam and reveal some of the dark things that the big guy enfolds and this would be bearish for the market I think in the second week of Jan.

Dec

30

Tweets-Dec/27/2020

December 30, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Wiswell proverbs for board games , life, and markets inspired by Mr. Srivatsan. 1 " if you see a good move(trade) don't market it look for a better one: if you see a better move, don't make it. look for the best. 2.I know one player, player who does not smoke, cigars, cigarettes or a pipe. Dr. Marion Tinsley and his game is much better for it( he is generally considered the best checker player of all time. 3.Winning a loss. " a win is a win is a win". 4.Some are destroyed by defeat and some are made small by victory. Greatness lies on one who triumphs equally over defeat and victory (is) 5.Houdinie once said that checkers was the only riddle he could not solve.6 the real secret of patience is to continue thinking while its your opponents move not just when it's your move, your game is often less strong in the ending than it appeared in the opening. the truth of the matter is that it was lost in the middle.7. If you strike strike at a king. you must kill him, half measures will not work. 8. Some players set traps in the opening that in the end lead to their defeat. 9. It is always wise to remember that your opponent may be just as scheming as you. 10. Protect your own double corner, and use your use your single corner to attach your opponents double corner. remember a player with a strong double corner is double hard to corner. 11. a million years ago: the good old days. so many moves , so many variations, so many friends( now Wiswell and I will put on our hats and study some more) 

Dec

28

Stefan Jovanovich  writes: 

Because it was foul stuff to work with compared to pine tar and Davy was promoting the uses of coal over which Britain had the same near monopoly that North Carolina had over turpentine and pine tar.  Britain became coal mad as they discovered that British midlands anthracite had superior qualities for ship's boilers over everyone else's stuff.  (When Admiral Dewey's squadron won the Battle of Manila Bay, they were fueled by British colliers from Hong Kong.). 

Big AI  writes: 

Epilogue to the story:

The financial catastrophe which had overtaken the Earl in no way  diminished his enthusiasm for scientific investigation. While he and his creditors were in prolonged negotiation for the disposal of Culross, he produced his largest and most important publication, A Treatise Showing the Intimate Connection that Subsists between Agriculture and Chemistry. But once again, he was in advance of his time. What was dismissed as eccentricity in the Earl of Dundonald was to be hailed as the genius of discovery in Sir Humphrey Davy. Indeed,  the most bitter irony of all was still far in the future, when the  Earl was an old and dying man, struggling to support his ailing mistress and her child in Parisian squalor, to which he had been  driven by the most remorseless of his creditors. From the miseries of  this exile, where drink had become his last consolation, the old man  heard that the Lordships of the Admiralty had conceived an interesting  new idea. In 1822, they had asked a committee of the Royal Society,  under the chairmanship of Sir Humphrey Davy, to investigate the  possibility that coal tar might be an effective and cheap preservative  for ships' bottoms. The committee reported favorably and the  Lordships congratulated themselves on their acumen. Not only was their> suggestion vindicated but the cantankerous Scottish earl who had taken  out a patent in the 1780s had neither heart nor money to renew it in  1806. The Admiralty, by biding its time, got the process for nothing.

Dec

28

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

Somewhere in digital maw is an earlier email of mine to the List with a copy of the wonderful cartoon that appeared recently in France.  It has the 3 wise men visiting Joseph, Mary, and the baby Jesus and the animals in the manger.  Each wise man is carrying a syringe.  The caption reads (apologies for my hopelessly bad non-existent French): "We'll try it first on the donkey and then see what happens."  The expression on the donkey's face is priceless.

As a perfect antidote to the varieties of idiocy out there, I recommend Brigitte Engerer's extraordinary performance of Chopin's Nocturnes.  She was perfection and someone who knew herself.

"I need the transparency of the French piano — and, more important, the rationality of French philosophy. But I needed some of the Russian craziness in my playing. I still do."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigitte_Engerer

 Adam Grimes writes: 

I've always loved her interpretation of the Nocturnes. If memory serves, she had a very impressive recording of the Mussorgsky Pictures, too. 

If you want to explore some more esoteric Chopin, see if you can find the Mazurkas as recorded by Andrzej Wasowski. If you know these pieces, you'll find his ideas challenging, to put it kindly… but there's a very good chance he's on the right track. (Basically, the beats tend to be unequal, leaning toward the uneven meters we find later in Bartok and others… it certainly makes sense that a Polish folk dance might have had (should probably read "very likely did have") some of the same characteristics that we associate with Romanian and Bulgarian folk music.)  

I'm not sure if you can find his recordings on YouTube, but it's worth tracking down a CD if you have to.

Dec

28

Tweets-Dec/24/2020

December 28, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/24
Discussion of season market moves, P/E ratios, and Georgia senate race today.

Dec

28

Tweets-Dec/23/2020

December 28, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Market on 12 -22 gave typical example of how courage trumps everything with lessons from woke-stock market interaction and how not to do a study with infinite multiple classification

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/22 https://youtu.be/FgrD3rnapQQ via @YouTube. Here is video that captures courage and multiple classifications and woke

Tune in today's video for tribute to James Lorie the Mendeleyev, of stock market data, i.e. the builder of the stock market periodic table, and the key builder of the Chicago style of bus .education. also, a second father to me. also the incredible silliness of a 5o point decline 

Pulled a rabbit out of http://hat.at close very exciting day. many general principles meals for a life time to learn. Perhaps subscribe to my YouTube channel :

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC85UPcd0vziV3C8ShkRvfCA

The market loves to swoon anything incumbent.  last week is good example. last two days it had 5 panics when non-woke things flit thru tair. we covered some of them in video. the threat worse than execution et al. most important tribute to a great man my squash partner James Lorie.



Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/23 https://youtu.be/pEARZITKJoQ via@YouTube 

Dec

28

Tweets-Dec/22/2020

December 28, 2020 | Leave a Comment

nooo better proof of the topsy turvy nature of the market is the sp 35 pt sellloff on the news that t he incumbent is pressuring the progressives to give more aid to the american rather tahan the foreigners. wself sacrifice is the calario calll of the progressives

but what is the likely outcome . either the incumbent willl get his way and the amercns would get more or he will not and the old billl will go thru.. now if he was threatening to cancel the Kennedy center 100 million or the smithsonian that would be a disaster for progsvs 

Dec

23

Discussion of Covid

December 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Jay Bhattacharya on the Pandemic
https://www.econtalk.org/jay-bhattacharya-on-the-pandemic/

Economist and physician Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Bhattacharya, along with Sunetra Gupta of the University of Oxford and Martin Kulldorff of Harvard University, authored The Great Barrington Declaration, which advocates a very different approach to fighting the pandemic than current policy and practice. Bhattacharya and his colleagues argue the best way to reduce overall harm is to focus protection efforts on those most at risk, while allowing low-risk populations to return to a more normal way of life. Bhattacharya argues that we have greatly neglected the costs of lockdown and self-quarantine.

Dec

23

Tweets-Dec/21/2020

December 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Betting odds on r' winning in Georgia improve to 70 to 30 European markets down much. gold takes tour of court. Sogi standing solid

A roller coaster today with Sogi standing solid as a stone wall and an infinity of woke news a la Dalton's request that we all have equality by prostration and Bill Barr dealing a final coup de grace to his boss

Dec

21

Tweets-Dec/18/2020

December 21, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/18
https://youtu.be/PJHkip0PN2w Fri Dec. 18 video gives advice on day trading, courage, and cane trading sparked by one of the biggest positive closes 30 pts in history

Dec 18 video I gave several tips for day trading. I would add two 1. never let a anyone know what your position is. 2. never admit to taking a profit.. 3. more controversial and trumps the other. 4. never day trade at all. 

Dec

20

 This is one of my favorite stories. I hope you enjoy it, and I wish you a Merry Christmas. — Victor Niederhoffer

High on the mountainside by the little line cabin in the crisp clean dusk of evening Stubby Pringle swings into saddle. He has shape of bear in the dimness, bundled thick against cold. Double stocks crowd scarred boots. Leather chaps with hair out cover patched corduroy pants. Fleece-lined jacket with wear of winters on it bulges body and heavy gloves blunt fingers. Two gay red bandannas folded together fatten throat under chin. Battered hat is pulled down to sit on ears and in side pocket of jacket are rabbit-skin earmuffs he can put to use if he needs them.

Stubby Pringle swings up into saddle. He looks out and down over worlds of snow and ice and tree and rock. He spreads arms wide and they embrace whole ranges of hills. He stretches tall and hat brushes stars in sky. He is Stubby Pringle, cowhand of the Triple X, and this is his night to howl. He is Stubby Pringle, son of the wild jackass, and he is heading for the Christmas dance at the schoolhouse in the valley.

[For the entire text of the story, please follow this link].

Dec

18

Today is the anniversary of the death of Gabriel Narutowicz.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_Narutowicz

Dec

18

Tweets-Dec/17/2020

December 18, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/15 https://youtu.be/SZHshj_WwvE
Today's video covered some amazing, useful points. First, the incredible consilience of all the markets being at new highs including grains and all equity markets. (1 of 2)

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/15 https://youtu.be/SZHshj_WwvE What does this mean for inflation, and the ignoramuses at the BLS. We had an extremely interesting interview with Andy Aiken about all things crypto, the problems and cover-ups in the vaccine story. (2 of 2) 

Dec

17

Tweets-Dec/16/2020

December 17, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/16 https://youtu.be/fwGlIqh7AsI with all ballyhoo, the market managed to close at an all time hi at 3694 basis march price changes were subdued. from 330 am to the close at 430 pm the total range was 7 pts from 3701 to 3690

Expect a wild day tomorrow Thursday 

Dec

16

Tweets-Dec/15/2020

December 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Some thing not cricket. vaccine news couldn't be all pacific. chance gardener tomorrow may not try to sink existing

The infra structure enacts another fee from the public.. yet another reason not to day trade

Mr. bell could run into a room and bet a light turning on from a lite switch or high frequency trade

Yet another reason in addition to the 5 others stacked against him previously that the incumbent lost The vaccine could have been rolled out in the summer, well before the current, predictable seasonal spike. Would have saved 150,000 lives. But solving the problem would

Solving the problem would also have re-elected President Trump, and there was no way the swamp would risk that. Heck, the left aborts that many children every month… from the WSJ editorial page

The vaccine could have been rolled out in the summer, well before the current, predictable seasonal spike. Would have saved 150,000 lives. But solving the problem would also have re-elected President Trump, ,there was no way the swamp would risk that. (from another WSJ comment

Apparently the results of the trials are rolled out to the FDA real time several weeks in advance of the announcement and big pharma at the top 9s uniformly woke as is the 95% at the FDA who vote woke. 

Dec

14

Big Al writes: 

In April 1945, Gollancz addressed the issue of German collective guilt in a pamphlet, What Buchenwald Really Means that explained that all Germans were not guilty. He maintained that hundreds of thousands of gentiles had been persecuted by the Nazis and many more had been terrorized into silence. Equally, UK citizens who had done nothing to save the Jews despite living in a democracy, were not free of guilt. This marked a shift of Gollancz's attention towards the people of Germany. In September 1945, he started an organisation Save Europe Now (SEN) to campaign for the support of Germans,[17] and over the next four years he wrote another eight pamphlets and books addressing the issue and visited the country several times.

Gollancz's campaign for the humane treatment of German civilians involved efforts to persuade the British government to end the ban on sending provisions to Germany and ask that it pursue a policy of reconciliation, as well as organising an airlift to provide Germany and other war-torn European countries with provisions and books. He wrote regular critical articles for, and letters to, British newspapers, and after a visit to the British Zone of Occupation in October and November 1946, he published these along with shocking close-up photos of malnourished children he took there in In Darkest Germany [18] in January 1947.

On the expulsion of Germans after World War II he said: "So far as the conscience of humanity should ever again become sensitive, will this expulsion be an undying disgrace for all those who remember it, who caused it or who put up with it. The Germans have been driven out, but not simply with an imperfection of excessive consideration, but with the highest imaginable degree of brutality." In his book, Our Threatened Values (London, 1946), Gollancz described the conditions Sudeten German prisoners faced in a Czech concentration camp: "They live crammed together in shacks without consideration for gender and age … They ranged in age from 4 to 80. Everyone looked emaciated … the most shocking sights were the babies … nearby stood another mother with a shrivelled bundle of skin and bones in her arms … Two old women lay as if dead on two cots. Only upon closer inspection, did one discover that they were still lightly breathing. They were, like those babies, nearly dead from hunger …" When Field Marshal Montgomery wanted to allot each German citizen a guaranteed diet of only 1,000 calories a day and justified this by referring to the fact that the prisoners of the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp had received only 800, Gollancz wrote about starvation in Germany, pointing out that many prisoners never even received 1,000 calories. "There is really only one method of re-educating people," explained Gollancz, "namely the example that one lives oneself."

Stefan Jovanovich  writes: 

The folly of revenge is its unshakeable belief that time's arrow can somehow be reversed, that wrong can be undone by doing it to "them".

Dec

14

Tweets-Dec/14/2020

December 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

It's a great day for the ""progressives" and bonds finally down 1 fall pt and gold down 14 $ .odds of senate staying r has fallen to 70% versus 80% a week ago. market loves that incumbent near 0 chance. if gains service 'rate raised to 100% the market would rise.

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web 2020/12/14 https://youtu.be/ERhKbIlwKfo via
@YouTube
what duplicity will the market infrastructure have in store http://today. How will Mr.. Sogi interact with the fomc . here is a take.

Dec

14

Food Item

December 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Bill Rafter writes: 

I was recently introduced to RICE GRITS, which are broken rice kernels.  Due to the increased cooking surface, these gems turn smooth and creamy quite easily.  I have had my starter pack three Days and have used them three times; once for breakfast, once as an understory for a sautéed scallop dish and once for rice pudding.  Absolutely delicious.  Their micronutrition content is very close to Irish oatmeal, and they are a nice morning change.

I received my grits from https://www.deltabluesrice.com a multi-generation family farm in Mississippi.  Their website has lots of recipes.

Most recipes for rice grits call for frequent stirring of the pot.  Fine if you have the time, but I’m too busy.  My variation is using a crockpot.  Although that means no stirring, you are left with some burn spots at the bottom of the crock.  They come off with soaking in dish detergent letting chemistry do the work for you.

My crockpot version goes like this:  Put a pat of butter in the bottom of the crock, and then add 4-to-1 units of water (preferably spring) to grits.  Set the crockpot on low and return in 4 hours.  Add cream if you want the ultimate luxury.  Note that with a timer you can run the process overnight and have them for breakfast.

Ken Sadofsky  writes: 

https://preview.tinyurl.com/yy7dkdp9

From the women: oatmeal, eggs n a fruit or sugar. For world athletes, I get carbs n protein from eggs but oatmeal has lil protein. The Scottish have a sayin though about their men, oats n steeds (escapes me)

A Japanese Zojirushi rice cooker has fuzzy logic and requires no stirring for whole grain oats, groat oats, I believe.  Perhaps counter-intuitive,  or obvious, is that this part of the Orient would find the easiest way of soing what they're suppose to be expert at.

Dec

14

Tweets-Dec/13/2020

December 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

What joy for the pessimists. Market down 3 days in row. but Sp, Dax, Nikkei, within 0.5 % of all time high

Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web https://youtu.be/CteSgDyQgrY via@YouTube. The market is mysterious, unfathomable and all encompassing.. What evil lies in it is infrastructure. Daily market web takes a crack.

Dec

14

Tweets-Dec/12/2020

December 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Market Daily Web #`1 https://youtu.be/kkUnTTfKt8Q via @YouTube start of new

Dec

14

Tweets-Dec/11/2020

December 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

A madness involving a drop below year low, kraken, 3rd down day in a row, baseless unhinged claims, suppression of news of family profits,. what else is new?

Brexit breaks up for 52 nd time

Stimulus deal breakdown, its because of intransigence one ?side? if they ever pass it, one will predict a rout

There stands Mr. Sogi , balanced among big waves, solid as a stone wall on land

Ontogeny revaluate phylogeny all in one day today

The market was quite an adventure today even though it ended unchanged. the swings in one typical day today amounted to as much as the average rise in the index for a year.. here's a take on it. Niederhoffer Sennett Daily Market Web https://youtu.be/CteSgDyQgrY via @YouTube

Dec

11

Tweets-Dec/12/2020

December 11, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Niederhoffer Sennett Market Daily Web #`1 https://youtu.be/kkUnTTfKt8Q via @YouTube start of new

Dec

10

Big Al writes: 

Texas has standing.  Article III, Section 2: In all Cases affecting Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, and those in which a State shall be Party, the supreme Court shall have original Jurisdiction.

They have standing in terms of jurisdiction, but I think it's a question whether they can show the *state of Texas* was harmed.  The Republican party in Texas may not like it, but that's different.  I don't know and you may be right - I'm just saying.

Stefan Jovanovich  writes: 

They could deny the Pennsylvania case as they just have because their jurisdiction is discretionary.  Here it is original.  That is my only point.   In order to reject the "case" as "moot", they have to accept it.  The extraordinary part of this lawfare has been the refusal of every trial court to hear any evidence at all; they have all ducked. What makes it difficult for the Supremos to follow the same tactic is (1) original jurisdiction and (2) it is a pure appellate case.  All the "evidence" is documentary - i.e. the rulings of the governors, Secretaries of States, Board of Election officials - and it is already on the record.  No injunctions or writs of mandamus required. No witnesses or depositions needed.  The risk for the Dems is the one that has always been there: the Supremos disqualify the Electors for those states and leave it up to the House to pick the next President.  That also allows them to duck in much the same way they did in Bush v. Gore. 

Michael Cook  writes: 

And in effect thus overturn the election result.

Does anyone seriously think Roberts will have a piece of that?…

Dec

10

Big Al writes: 

Behavioral Problems of Adhering to a Decision Policy Paul Slovic Oregon Research Institute, Eugene, Oregon  Paper presented at the Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance May 1, 1973, Napa, California

https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/23607/928.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y

Another example of inconsistency comes from a study of expert horse-race handicappers, which we are currently conducting at the Oregon Research Institute. We're not really interested in horse-race predictions, we're studying the stresses caused by information overload, and horse racing provides an appropriate context in which to  do this. We expect that the results will generalize to any domain in which the skilled integration of large masses of quantitative information is performed by means of human judgment. For horse-race

handicapping is an information game, much as investment analysis is an information game, and although there are many differences between these two domains of risk-taking, there are many similarities as well.  Figure 1 shows a typical past-performance chart, which gives detailed  information about each horse’s recent performances. It doesn't take too much imagination to see the similarities between these kinds of charts and the data sources used in some forms of financial analysis. Our judges in this study were eight individuals, carefully selected for heir expertise as handicappers. Each judge was presented with a list of 88 variables culled from the pastperformance charts. He was asked to indicate which five variables out of the 88 he would wish to use when handicapping a race, if all he could have was five variables.

He was then asked to indicate which 10, which 20, and which 40 he would use if 10, 20, or 40 were available to him.  Before examining inconsistency, though, let's look at how accuracy and  confidence varied with amount of information as shown in Figure 4 of  the handout. We see that accuracy was as good with five variables as  it was with 10, 20, or 40. The flat curve is an average over eight subjects and is somewhat misleading. Three of the eight actually showed a decrease in accuracy with more information, two improved, and  three stayed about the same. All of the handicappers became more confident in their judgments as information increased.

In Table 1, we see a comparison of the amount of inconsistency in our handicappers’ judgments at low and high levels of information.

Consistency was measured in three ways—by the number of times the first-place horse was changed when the race was judged the second  time, by the number of changes in any of the five ranks, and by the  sum of the differences in ranks from one time to the next. Each of  these measures told the same story—there was considerable inconsistency in the rankings, and this inconsistency increased as the amount of available information increased.

These results should give some pause to those of us who believe we're better off by getting as many items of information as possible, prior to making a decision.

Ken Sadofsky  writes: 

US voters largely hold as good mechanics, if it ain't broke don't fix it. For Boris if still here opening lines of AC tell a lot about the topical, unintentionally; something for Lindsey and Schumer and maybe to close it, he ain't no boss. And like science, music takes political sides it seems; I disdain - wish someone would just show me the lists what I'm suppose to believe and what to say. I do get reverence to one's fellow carbon forms btw.

most for skimming:

Big Al got me moving on this, I still have much more, but it's locked in my brain vaguely and still can't get to the speaking or typing part.  As usual, others can translate below or even my vague thoughts, still in labor. And few have already.

If this gentleman, Allan Lichtman has already been shot down, scuse.

More important is the set or transit ors (a cleverism to make binarys as a set against impeders) seismic shifts shake the status quo at the top, making the presentation and focus of false ones more understandable for me about the process. Five or fewer keys false, incumbent wins; (6, in this case 7 keys false) incumbent loses.  –so far, unless SCOTUS wants political upheaval, and they're made to hate politics while endorsing their view on lawful governance.

1)fox https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0PDVeBRLUA

 begin @1:30

2)"wik:The 13 Keys

"The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a US presidential election:

    Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

    No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

    Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

    No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

    Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

    Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

    Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

    No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

    No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

    No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

    Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

    Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

    Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

When five or fewer of the above statements about an upcoming election are false, the incumbent party candidate is predicted to win the election. When six or more are false, the incumbent party candidate is predicted to lose the election.

By "incumbent party", Lichtman means the party to which the incumbent President belongs. In the 2016 election, the Democratic Party was the incumbent party as then-President Barack Obama was a Democrat. Obama was in his second term and thus was ineligble for re-election, so Hillary Clinton ran as the candidate for the Democratic Party, i.e. she was the incumbent party candidate. Donald Trump was the candidate for the Republican Party, i.e. he was the challenging party candidate.

Some of these keys can be judged using objective metrics, such as economic growth, and some of these keys are of rather subjective nature, such as candidate charisma. In the latter case, a forecaster must evaluate the circumstances of all past elections together so that his judgments are at least consistent if not objective, and then observe how his judgments retroactively predict historical election outcomes so that he can refine his subjective standards into something reliably predictive for future elections.[1]"

3)other - one scientific answer may be better suited to another science:

"While predictions of earthquakes eluded his methods and algorithms, they seem to have succeeded in another, completely unrelated field. In 1981 the Russian Keilis-Borok teamed up with an American 26 years his junior. His partner was Allan Lichtman, a political historian at the American University in Washington, D.C. Together they applied the algorithms which would ultimately fail in predicting earthquakes to the US election system. In November 1981 the duo published its results in an article with the very long, unwieldy title "Pattern recognition applied to presidential elections in the United States, 1860-1980: Role of integral social, economic, and political traits" in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in Washington (Vol. 78, pg. 7230).

And what happened? Using this method, Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcomes of the past eight presidential elections in the United States. And now - in contrast to all other pollsters and talking heads - he was the only one to consistently tell all of us who wanted to listen, that the 45th president of the United States was going to be Donald J. Trump. With his statements Allan Lichtman was the lone voice in the desert and has posthumously vindicated the work of Keilis-Borok, who passed away three years ago in his home in Culver City in the Los Angeles Area."

https://seismo.berkeley.edu/blog/2016/11/13/predicting-presidents-and-not-earthquakes.html

Dec

10

Tweets-Dec/9/2020

December 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

38% of the days in 2019 and 2020 have ended with a 20 day hi in sp future as of close

wsj.com/articles/trumps-challenges-to-election-face-end-of-the-legal-road-11607518944?mod=hp_lead_pos6 how many biases against pres can you find in this from the wsj news dept and the fox coverage of same issue

WSJ market watch pulls out "sterling awaits last s upper on Brexit. only 8 years out of date. anything to sink orange from news dept.

Kona coffee tasting good in gold 

Dec

10

Tweets-Dec/8/2020

December 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Perhaps the strength of the SP these days and its assault on the round number of 3700. is that the betting odds favorite for Pres. in 2024 is Kamela Harris at 20% and Biden is 13% . Pres trump follows at 11%. as mentioned repeatedly the market loves the most "progressive"

The SP plays a lethal game with the round number once again at the close. how many time can you ask the object of your affection to come to your establishment and be rejected. and how will you feel when the answer is yet 

Dec

8

Peter Pinkhaven writes: 

I am 20 years now removed from Fixed Income but I read the effect of BOJ buying has led to days where there have been no trades in the benchmark JGB.  Also for 30 years as the “smart“ crowd bet against the JGB due to debt to GDP climbing to 100 then 200pct & zero rates in return - shorting JGBs became known as the Widowmaker.

I thought the expected endgame in Japan was for the BOJ to swap the equity holdings in the Topix for the JGBs the State/Postal Pension Fund owns.  

As we look at the Japanification of all OECD economies - Russell Napier has a fascinating view where Russell has flipped from being a perpetual deflationist to saying the OECD will be at 4pct inflation in 12 months time - not because of QE but because of the guaranteeing of loans which injects real non recourse cash into the economies and grows bank reserves (risk free lending to the banks)

https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/teg_0005/

Stefan Jovanovich  writes: 

"Given that it is expected to take more time to achieve the price stability target, due in part to the impact of COVID-19, I think it will become even more important for monetary easing measures to be sustainable and flexible. Given that monetary easing is expected to be further prolonged due in part to the impact of COVID-19, the Bank should look for additional ways to enhance the sustainability and flexibility of the policy measures so that it will not face difficulty in conducting ETF and J REIT purchases when an appropriate lowering of risk premia of asset prices is absolutely necessary." (Speech to local leaders in Fukushima, via webcast, 3 December) 

Sitting in the bleachers along with all the cardboard pictures of people, even I have noticed that concession sales are down.  You can't buy a beer because there is nobody around to sell you one.  If the national Treasury buys the stock of the food service company that has the concession, will that raise the price of the beer I can't buy?

Dec

8

Tweets-Dec/7/2020

December 8, 2020 | Leave a Comment

slow steady inexorable rise to round so far.. but how caan one be tricked> what evil lies in the hearts of the market

Dec

7

This article is about 4 years late…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-04/ethereum-becoming-more-than-crypto-coder-darling-grayscale-says

 

Dec

7

Books for 2020

December 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment

 
Some books I’ve read (or re-read) recently which I would strongly recommend:

 
1.The New Class War, Michael Lind
2.Worlds Hidden in Plain Sight: The Evolving Idea of Complexity at the Santa Fe Institute: 1984-2019, David C. Krakauer, Editor
3.The Age of Entitlement, Christopher Caldwell
4.The Parasitic Mind, Gad Saad
5.The Stakes, Michael Anton
6.The Coming of Neo-Feudalism, Joel Kotkin
7.Small Men on the Wrong Side of History, Ed West
8.On Diversity: The Eclipse of the Individual in a Global Era, Russell Jacoby
9.Great Society: A New History, Amity Shlaes
10.Unmasking the Administrative State: The Crisis of American Politics in the 21st Century, John Marini
11.Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History, Peter Turchin
12.The Zurich Axioms, Max Gunther
13.Love in the Ruins, Walker Percy
14.Such Counsels You Gave To Me, Robinson Jeffers

Dec

7

Tweets-Dec/6/2020

December 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment

The round number has been hit at 3600. will bonds force it down , or will number not be the penumbra? only the shadow knows

that sh o udl be 3700. the progressives main arg'ument is that the digestive situation of a prominent orange attorney is not good 

Dec

7

Tweets-Dec/5/2020

December 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment

how many sp pts could you make if you caught the exct low and high of the day in 2020. ansr is 300 full sp pts on 3 separate days march 13 , march 16 and march 17 . thats 15000 for 1 contract or 10% on the underlying in one beautiful day. the average is 65 pts

Dec

7

Tweets-Dec/4/2020

December 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment

looks like another round number coming up to celebrate progressism perhaps the Georgia election is becoming more woke

Dec

7

Tweets-Dec/3/2020

December 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment

everything unchanged except gold at a 5day high recovering frm a 12% continuous swoon. the big traders , and infra structure giants must create extra vol today to swing the public inti switches and churning before employment

a nice dipsey doodle out of the blue sky the market devil is infinitely creative when it c0mes to causing the vig and churn

heard in the 27 th district of cal. a call is on hold from the surgeons dining room at va hospital . they wish to know from the congresswoman how the pfizer announcent effects the inverse ultra puts of Indonesia

you have to hand it to the market devils . in the last 15 minutes of the trading day they manged to bring sp from the high of day at 3680 to th low at 3645 and then bak to the middle at 3668. imposible but true. the reason why the best investor i knew James Lorie always said

"stick to buy and hold" 

Dec

3

Tweets-Dec/2/2020

December 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

always remember that one of the main purposes of markets is to induce vig to make the public churn and generally to do the wrong thing

no betterexample of this is gold..itwent dlwncontinuusy 200 bucks about 9 in 10 days lat 2 weeks.whetherbitcoitnwent up or downwhether sp was up ordonw,whether thewokes were inascendancy ornnot. then out of clear blue sky yest it went up 40 bucks

np better example ofhtis is how the market movesaroundat the opening it goes above andbelwo teh sogi byy5 points. the only way you ca catchit is to do a market order..the high frequency boy beat you and create 1 fuull pointn of vig . i.e if yuselll a=whenits at 55 you're lucky

upi get 5375 for morehtna 5 contracts. if you try to disgusie your order, the clearing firms alll have algoriths to repor tyou to the excange. you have to sign a a doc when they haul you infor hiding your limits that you wont reveal the star chanbericeedings. if you try to

simulat e to reduce the vig edge,they charge you for spoofing. and the courts amaingly have been convinced that trying to lelvel the playingfield inone or a dozen ways is a crime where the punishment can be 1000 times the dollars at issue.

a numberof bkgmediasent memosoutthatwe face uncertaintimes and stocks coud go down for a hundred different reasons. are there more reasons now than the average of the last 100years. andif so is it bullish orbearsih. my favorite newspaper is one of the main culprit in this

but i have tos ay that the big data srive provider was 100% bearish before the electionto create a terriblel aura . but now they are much more neutral . again is this bull or bear: 

Dec

3

December 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Laurence Glazier writes: 

In Sci Fi the Peter Hamilton trilogies and Adrian Tchaikovsky's tales.

But my main find in 2020 is the app Notion - notion.so - and among other uses for it I have been applying Tiago Forte's Second Brain method for storing favourite snippets for future access. If anything I find more wisdom in fiction than non-fiction. in a sense that makes it truer.

James Goldcamp  writes: 

Hi Laurence - Can you expand on how you use this app and Second Brain method.  I've actually been contemplating some kind of note app particularly for the purpose of putting excerpts and ideas from things I read or thoughts I have more at my fingertips. I've willfully resisted such technology to this point but think something along these lines might be useful

Leo Jao writes: 

Just checked a bit on Notion, can't yet recommend about its advantages, but have noticed major drawbacks of a note taking software.  In the past years, I have tried and used quite a few of them.  Of course in this age, a key feature is being able to sync notes across devices.  The big names include Evernote, OneNote, Keep, in addition to other lesser known one's.  One issue is at some point in time, one gets concerned about privacy and security of the contents, as with these sync'able platforms, contents are all stored in their servers.  For this or other reasons, one wants to switch to other platforms at some point.  There then is a key issue: one can't easily take the contents away!  Notion has these two issues.  I see that it can export a single note, but misses a feature of exporting all notes.

For the past year, I settled on an open source software called Joplin.  For syncing, it provides various ways without having to use a public server.  Notes can be easily exported.

 

Michael Chuprin writes: 

Victor's contribution to this thread:
In no specific order:
1.The Psychology of Speculation: The Human Element in Stock Market Transactions
2.Fourteen Methods of Operating in the Stock Market
3.The Mad Dog 100: The Greatest Sports Arguments of All Time
4.Wealth, War and Wisdom
5.The West of the Imagination
6.Darwin
7.Regression Analysis and Linear Models: Concepts, Applications, and Implementation
8.Man on Earth: A Celebration of Mankind: Portraits of Human Culture in a Multitude of Environments
9.Voices of the French Revolution
10.The Decline and Fall of the British Empire, 1781-1997
11.Lone Star Rising: The Texas Rangers Trilogy

Dec

2

Tweets-Dec/1/2020

December 2, 2020 | Leave a Comment

The higher we go the more bearish and anti the wsj and market watch and others become

bonds down 2 full points flirtiing with 3 month lows and greeting ms kinsellen appropriately 

Dec

1

Alex Castaldo writes: 

Last Friday was the day to roll long positions in ZB futures: to sell

the December futures (which are nearing expiration) and buy the March futures instead. I noticed something a little puzzling. For the last 2 years the far away (new contract) future was cheaper than the nearby one (the old  contract). But last Friday it was the opposite:

> 2PriceDate old contr new contr  oc price     nc price     roll cost

> 05/30/2018   ZBM8      ZBU8     145 14/32    144 19/32    - 27/32

> 08/30/2018   ZBU8      ZBZ8     144 31/32    144  7/32    - 24/32

> 11/29/2018   ZBZ8      ZBH9     140  4/32    139 16/32    - 20/32

> 02/28/2019   ZBH9      ZBM9     145  4/32    144 15/32    - 21/32

> 05/30/2019   ZBM9      ZBU9     153  2/32    152 14/32    - 20/32

> 08/29/2019   ZBU9      ZBZ9     166  2/32    165  8/32    - 26/32

> 11/27/2019   ZBZ9      ZBH0     160  3/32    159 10/32    - 25/32

> 02/27/2020   ZBH0      ZBM0     168 16/32    167 15/32    -1  1/32

> 05/28/2020   ZBM0      ZBU0     178 21/32    177  2/32    -1 19/32

> 08/28/2020   ZBU0      ZBZ0     176 14/32    174 25/32    -1 21/32

> 11/27/2020   ZBZ0      ZBH1     173 28/32    175  1/32    +1  5/32

As long as short term interest rates (repo rates) are positive, it would seem that an object delivered 3 months further away should be cheaper than the same object delivered 3 months sooner. (The good old Time Value of Money). Which makes me think that the Cheapest to Deliver for ZB March 2021 must be different from the CTD for ZB December 2020 if the March is priced higher? But I am not sure if this explanation is correct. And I find it disturbing that even though I traded tbonds for a while I do not fully understand some of the basic mechanics. Do you have any insight? Why did the price difference (technically know as the Roll Cost) flip like this?

George Zachar  writes: 

On Bloomberg, pull up USZ0 and USH1 CMTY DLV.

The cheapest to delivers did change:

Z0 = 4.5% '36

H1 = 5.0% '37

Dec

1

Another Bold Strike Against Iran - WSJ   paywall

By Reuel Marc Gerecht

This “Commentary” in today’s WSJ is a good piece about Middle East power politics.  It is a refreshing challenge to the fake news of Iran’s claims that the recent attack on its nuclear scientist was done remotely, being somewhat pedaled by AP.

 

Dec

1

New High for BTC

December 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Andrew Aiken writes: 

BTC made a new ATH this morning, nominally at least.

I expect a strong breakthrough move, although such a move may take a few days.

The rally from March has not been accompanied by much notice from retail financial media.

Instead, there has been significant adoption by traditional money managers (Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, etc) and corporate treasuries (e.g. Microstrategy).

For lower-risk exposure to crypto, I suggest taking a look at Galaxy Digital Holdings (ADR: BRPHF), a crypto-focused asset management firm with additional lines of business in prime brokerage, market-making, and investment banking in the space. 

At current BTC and ETH prices, it trades at an 8% discount to tangible book value (not AUM).

The firm holds 16,651 BTC ($327M) in its corporate treasury alone.

https://bitcointreasuries.org/

Dendi Suhubdy writes: 

Fyi I’m building a crypto derivatives exchange test it out here https://testnet.bitwyre.com. Will be live on https://bitwyre.com on new years eve

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