Nov

24

Tweets-Nov/22/2020

November 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

reflections. 1/ the most improtant thing in markets and life is to be adaptable' the ability to adopt a way of life to the prevailing circumstances, the ability to find a way of achievingdesirable ends to the prevailing circumstancesn " the ability to siove a problem"

the adaptability qutoe is from Man on earth a fascinating sooy of how all different peooplel and occuarpions and geilgraphy adapt to their particular circumstances. 2 it brings to mind Barton Biggs excelletn book wealth war and wisdom. he gives numerous examples

https://goodreads.com/book/show/2243623.Wealth_War_and_Wisdom biggs shows how when darkest inworld war 2 an and t the us was losign battlbe iliek Pearl Haarbor and Rommel was mopping upp and fdr ad inaugurated to pessimism like we have wintessed the market looked ahead and went up amid a max of pessimsm

3 the psycholoogy of speculation harper 1926 containsmorewisdom about spec than alllthe nobel prizes that have come down the road for cognitivsbbiaes etc. Here a typical quote" the sold out bulll becomes wretchedly aware that he has dropped otuof the race before the course

sold out bull . 3 was completedand so has thrownout an opportunity to make milllions more " and to make matters worse thay want to make it in the same way thye missed it the first time 

4. the progressives areholding theirfire about meeing with acertain group espousing " matters" the understand that most votes feel that nowadsy ther is more like to be a bias for preference than discrimination. the progressives wailt until they settle in.then the deluge

the vaccination tests seem like their cost benefit is neg. i assume 25000 lacebo that had 100 positive versus2 5000 that had readl vaccine with only 5 who had disease. thus 0.4. % you get disease. and if you get it , chances are 2 you have sympoms. so for

100000 that didnt have test thhey 2 willl get symptoms the disruption to 99998 the time spent the possible side effects of the 99950 that take the vaccine would seem to be more han the net negative to the 2 who ddint take it. let's say im off by factor of 5 or 10. same conlsn.

many chemo drugs extend your life by 6 months at teh cost of 6 month to a year of misery and side effects and vistis away from home to hospital. ifis it worth it?

half of 45000 in study received placebo. so my figures seem to order of 5 or 10 to b3e correct

Nov

24

Tweets-Nov/21/2020

November 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

holding your fire. the sp stayed within 1 pt ofr 3570 on every half hour until 345. then it dropped 30 pooitns in last 1 minutes. 2 Bernie wants to be labor secretary but is holding stridency back.3. the new economy forum holdsmeeting alll week to emphasize climate change

its apparent that the progressives are holding fire in many ways until their man is in control and theycan receive their reperations for support of challenger. query. what willl trnaspire when the final stretch drive, the climactic moment near end of race

Nov

24

Tweets-Nov/20/2020

November 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

For the first time, white shoe man at treasury says somehting non-woke , i.e. bailotus willl not continue in force, and the market immediately drops 1%. why has he changed his colors? a meeting at wood shed with the incumbent?an effort to differentiate from Pocohontus?

one goes bak to theme of market s for last 3 months. the market loves collectivism. and when a free market thing is bruuited about it collapses

nasdaq futurues p laying foootsie with another constructal numer at 12000

all 38 half hour prices from yest at 8 pm within 2 points of 3570. this isnt cricket. how is the ;ublic goig to lose their proper amount. how is the infrastructures goign to generate volume? how r Members going to prospe ron a day like this holding fire until mond

Nov

24

Tweets-Nov/19/2020

November 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a close of down 1% that will resonate forever

the tech agrarians getting RICHER RElATIVE TO sta id investors 

muST BE bad news for incumbent nasdaq up 1% more than sp. hav you tested that?

heard at the Tresury. "welll split the difference " before native american takes ovef

Nov

23

Alex Castaldo writes: 

BUT THIS IS NO LONGER THE CASE. Since Monday October 26, 2020 the CME always uses 4pm as the settlement time. So the 4:15 price and the settlement are now different every day, not just on the last day of the month.

Steve Ellison writes: 

Thanks, Doc. I had done a double take a couple of times when the S&P 500 settlement price was completely outside the range of the last 15-minute bar. For example, on November 12 the range of the 16:00-16:15 period was 3543.75 to 3533.00, but the emini settlement price was 3532.50. Because I do intermarket analysis, I have long kept a separate database of each day's 16:00 price in the S&P 500 and other markets (US Eastern time).

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

more important what is the predictive  properties  of the move from 1600 to the real 1615 price

Nov

23

Leo Jia writes: 

Underspecification.  Observed effects can have many possible causes.  So when you have say 50 models that analyze the causes from various prospectives, and all worked well in tests, but in the real world on a specific case, they present different results, and you are faced with uncertainty as to which one to take.  This also relates to our mind and life experiences, doesn't it?  In life, one has learned how to do all this and all that, but when faced with a situation, one struggles on what approach to take.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/11/18/1012234/training-machine-learning-broken-real-world-heath-nlp-computer-vision/

Dendi Suhubdy writes: 

It’s not fundamentally flawed at all. I’ve been working with a Turing award winner in deep learning since 2016 and built multiple startups in the field of deep learning.

I can say it relies on the backpropagation algorithm, which means it needs to have the function (linear or non-linear, nonlinear for deep neural networks) to be differentiable (what we call the backward pass). When we do inference (or the foward pass) it’s just simply matrix multiplication of (weights * prev_input) + bias.

Now to achieve a better understanding of how our world works, we need to have to learn from few-shots, or zero-shots. Also we need to be able to quickly learn from a smaller sample size. This problem is hard and I believe we (the deep learning people) are working on it.

Larry W writes: 

I have spent a lot of money developing AI trading strategies and so far…none of them are better—or even close —to man-made strategies

Nov

23

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientists-say-they-found-a-way-to-reverse-the-human-aging-process-649798

Nov

19

US CPI 0.00%

November 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Dr. Zacek  writes: 

Question for all the smart people here. Why is the CPI 0% in the USA if whatever I buy here in AZ, I pay considerably more compared to 9 months ago (end Feb)?

What is it I am missing? What did go cheap sooo much to compensate the CPI composition for all this:

Organic Eggs +50%

Coca Cola tins/bottles +20-30%

Toilet paper +30-50%

Full tank of gas +20%

Long term apartment rent +15-20%

Property prices +30%

Construction Labor +25%

Average Hollywood movie shoot/location per day +75%

Firearms +25-30%

Ammo +150%

Average doctor bill +xxx%

Rudolf Hauser writes: 

One problem is the unchanged market basket at a time when people’s buying habits have changed. So one sees declines in such things as airline prices because fewer people are flying but the weight that receives in the calculation has not changed. Meanwhile, prices of many items in demand are rising.

Nov

19

In 1987 I was managing some accounts lady by the name of Susan B Kringle opened an account with 60,000 and closed it out about a year later at close to $450,000 (just a hot streak I assure you) then sued me for—hold on to your seatbelts—$53,000,000.

Seems she and her lawyer. Gary Sinclair, thought her account, at a different brokerage firm, should have had the same results as the account I had in a trading championship.

Eventually, after some legal costs, the judge through it out. You can’t sue for speculative damages. He also asked if was still taking accounts. I wasn’t and haven’t since. Maybe not for you guys but for me losing a $53 million dollar law suit would really hurt.

Now this current guy, today says he has pancreatic cancer and “Please don’t let me down, I want to re-subscribe”

There are lots of fake newsletter publishers out there but In the recent years….lots of fake subscribers. I will save the best story for next time

Happy Trails to all

Nov

19

Tweets-Nov/17/2020

November 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

the more agrarian we get, the more bullish we. are what the market need is an enumeration of all those who didnt vote agrarian, and systematic enumeration of their property as a door opener

Nov

16

Alex Castaldo  writes: 

Hello fellow Spec Listers -

I'm curious as to anybody's informed take on the likelihood of the implementation of a Financial Transaction Tax, especially at a Federal Level - as this would quite materially harm our craft. Looking to learn more, and to prepare if necessary by pivoting asset classes / markets etc.

Kim Zussman writes: 

https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research-centers/centers-initiatives/international-center-for-finance/data/historical-financial-research-data/st-petersburg-stock-exchange-project

Nov

16

Excellent Book

November 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Subject: Re: [SPEC-LIST] excellent book https://www.amazon.com/Bobby-Fischer-Other-Stories-literature/dp/1886040184/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_1?dchild=1&keywords=arnold+denker+the+bobby+fisher+i+knew&qid=1605369810&sr=8- great stories of brilliant and pro active chess playeers from 50 years ago.

Speaking of stories:

https://www.iheart.com/podcast/962-beauties-72513762/episode/introducing-beauties-with-james-duthie-72513768/

Each episode focuses on incredible stories from hockey’s biggest names, greatest characters and unsung heroes. Narrated by James Duthie, legends of the game tell their stories over an immersive audio landscape. 

Nov

16

Tweets-Nov/14/2020

November 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

contrived, woke fictional story, queen s gambit part of Obama view of world. much better is harry dents the bobby fisher I knew

correction.excellent book that tells the real story of brilliant and memorable loesseresque chess pleyers from the 50's tp 70' s

Nov

16

Tweets-Nov/13/2020

November 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

many ifs 1 " if the big pharma had announced or indicated reultas when they had them a week before elec.2 if the media hadnt black listed all news of son of chall.3 if Puppet scientist whose actions are like the cattle trader he loved gave his first positive talk befr elect

4. if media had dug in to finance and wealth of chal. family 5. if big bus and big tech wasnt 96% iin support and fin aid to chall. . What else would have changed results? 

Nov

13

Please only use wild salmon, never farm Salmon as the industry is infecting waterways with virus.  Sous vide Salmon for 30 min at 125F for flaky, lower for firmer wetter texture.  

Dengaku Miso Topping/ (BBQ sauce)  
3/4 cup less 1 Tbs white miso,  
2 egg yolks, 
2  Tbs Sake.  
2 Tbsps Mirin; 
2 Tbs sugar; 
7 Tbs dashi (Hondashi).  
Add one: toasted sesame seens, or grated rind of yuzu citron/lime, or fresh ginger juice.

Put miso in double boiler, and before putting over hot water blend in egg yolks, sake, mirin and sugar. Place over simmering water and gradually add dashi…stir til thick.  At the last moment add 1 seasoning.
Paint on sous vided salmon, and place on BBQ (or broil) for 30 seconds to a minute.
As we say in Hawaii, "Broke da mouth!"

Nov

13

Tweets-Nov/12/2020

November 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

remember one of the main attributes ofthe market is to foce you to pay frothe infra structrue, the welllcapitalzied and the members. today its ina holding pattern. how can you dothe wrong thing

at least its honoring the man from Hawaii with the ukulele and the surfingr

ally at20.5 possible 

Nov

13

Tweets-Nov/11/2020

November 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

new alll time highs in stocks.crude at 20 day hi gold at20 day low and b onds a gnat away from big lo. betting ods incumb has same chances at 13%to gain pres as Dems have to gain senate.

Nov

13

Tweets-Nov/10/2020

November 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a little bird that has access to the inside of a big companys vaccine results told me that the big comPANY had the results a week ago but didnt releave them until today as they didnt want to help a certain incumbent

some have responded to my little bird tweet that they feel it is funny. 1let me say first that I would never communicate soemthing like that unless i was quite certain that what the little bird said was true. 2. let me say it's notfunny. it's very sad that the poor

the poor personage not only had to overcome the 95% of emploees in the relevant agencies who supported the challenger, but also the ceo's of those working to create value for their consumers p

to say nothing about the scientist who wrote a love letter to the cattle trader and whose every utterance served to sink the incumbent inclluding his wapo interview the weekend before the election. on such smalll strands can a civiliztion destroy itself

it is good that my youngest daughter used her biochemistry degree to become a dr in a southern Medical school rather than working in the Pharma industry where she mite have interned

hello mr. sogi how the kona coffee a little higher ground than your surfing

accordingn to the betting odds(lott stossel) the chances that the r's will both lose the presidency and in conjuntion lose the senate is 20%

a hard fought game adjourned with winning chances

Nov

10

Tweets-Nov/9/2020

November 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

some moves. bonds down to new 20 dat kiw at 17050, incumb odds up 3% at 10%, crude above 40 at 10 day hi,gold down 70, vaccine if 2 days ealiear would have changed election results. held bak to create misery

a tweeet from Mr.availla. thinking like a cynic spec " the best part is that theyheld bakthe vaccine news. a true american coup. doubtless pfizer needed the extra 3 days to access outcome

Nov

10

Tweets-Nov/8/2020

November 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

market 1/2% away from all time high as collectivism reaches a max and guillotine comes into focus. also the largest rise from close to open ever

correction 3 rd largest rise from 1615 to 1815

we did it 3534 previous alll time closing hi

only 3 times its been up this much alll w ere up big form 3537 for alll susquent time periods that;s not a predicition  

just responding to a request from estimabel mr. tiger

Nov

9

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

Report on what seems to avalla and me likek pfizer held bak their results.  was   it planned to be after election or did they just report it  late. eitherway, its very suspicious and  certainly affected the electio

K. K. Law writes: 

Need to dig into it to find the truth. It is entirely possible the MSM plus many tech companies including big pharmas are behind influencing the election to make sure Trump lose. As much as the left "wishes" to put the election behind, this is far from being done. It is not until the Supreme Court has made the final decision after reviewing all the submitted evidences and hearing sworn testimonies. I saw the words, "Hear, Hear." Exactly, let us hear what the Supreme Court has to decide and say. The election and the trades are interrelated. There are chances one may have to switch back to "Biden lose, Trump win" trades. We shall see.

Jordan Neuman writes: 

The SuJordan Neumanpreme Court will probably not take the cases.  

Gus Glads writes: 

Pfizer made its timeline very clear from the beginning. Was transparent from the start. The company outlined its process and gave a clear roadmap in October. Read below. Additionally, Pfizer from the beginning has never been part of Operation Warp Speed and has not taken any govt money for R&D.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla?linkId=102134275

As for the Supreme Court. Trump and his “legal” team was 0-10 entering today in courts across America  since Election Day as it relates to cases of election fraud and this morning his team’s most recent attempt in Lansing, Michigan Cout of Appeals was rejected by Judge Cynthia Stephens with the following language: “I regret to inform you that your submission is defective.”  The reason being the submission was missing 4 key elements of evidence and support that they claimed to possess.

Nov

9

Tweets-Nov/6/2020

November 9, 2020 | Leave a Comment

playing footsie with the round number of 3500 as woke prepare to take vengeance and exculpatory congrats to r's come down the pike

for the market to be commpletly happy and marxism to reach its acme the d's would have to take senate whitch seems 5 times more likely than thei ncumbent winning at this stage

there are quite a few red marks on the ladies nylons

what they all have in common " blue wave that wasnt","strong showing in red states", " resurgence in Latino and black voters " " how did r's avert disaster","the turnaround in R's showiing so much better than polls" all attempts to congrat and mollifu r's for losing 

Nov

6

What’s Next

November 6, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Michael Cook writes: 

Ok, so assuming Biden gets called today or the weekend - which starts to look likely, what is next for the markets?

If Trump obsessively focuses on lawyers and anger/anguish, do we not get next stimulus until late January just as Covid cases rocket? So the sugar high we have been on basically gets its sugar removed?

I get the relief rally on the back of (I assume) no blue wave, tech breakup, paralysis is good etc, but once the dust settles - isnt this actually bad, at least for the next couple of months - or am I miss reading this?

Jeffery Watson writes: 

One could make a case that the market doesn't care about who's the boss as long as stocks can carry themselves. After all, what will really change about the nuts and bolts of things? Will the clerk at the DMV, the food inspector, the apparatchik, the cop, the local judge, pr the IRS agent suddenly change their stripes and modus operandi with a new president? 

Nov

6

Alex Forshaw writes: 

1. Is it possible to determine what % of dead people (alt'y, what % of people over 110 years old) voted for Biden over Trump, where they live, and when they last voted? AFAICT, so far, the dead demo is 100 percent for Biden, and turnout was up at least 100 percent over 2016/2012. This was a devastating rebuke to 160 years of shameless GOP voter suppression.

2. More dead voters have voted for Biden than have shown up for all of Biden's campaign rallies, combined. Outstanding GOTV by the Biden campaign here, especially considering that they had no GOTV for most, if not all, other demos.

3.  Dead Lives Matter! Just from sampling social media, dead voters are clearly the fastest-growing demographic in the United States, and Biden's outreach to this underserved minority was amazing. What policies & voter outreach should GOP'ers consider in order to compete for this underserved demographic?

K.K. Law writes: 

If there is a way to quantify voter frauds such as dead people's votes, illegal people's votes and people casting votes multiple times and destroying GOP votes, that would be great. I am sure all these happen but just don't know the magnitude.

Nov

6

Tweets-Nov/5/2020

November 6, 2020 | Leave a Comment

correction typo the fomc should be bulll today… theyre on their guard

Nov

6

Tweets-Nov/4/2020

November 6, 2020 | Leave a Comment

hpe springs eternal but ultimately the odds willl go to 1 % incumbent and theyll stilll be fighting and excusing rather than succombing to marxism.. its good to be a good loser. shake te tooher persons hand . thank the referree and see wahat youve leaarned formyour def

and ater shakig hands a re compplimenting the winner. of course " hows Soros

and of course after the " hows soros" … can I get you and your running mate a drink.. many times i've been in a similar position to the loser. i can remember t han all. how it hurts to go bak to the locket room and see what you[ve learned and h ow to regroup

tomorrow another day for market. and the Fed should be contrite and learning to marx but this time enough is enough and the market mite succomb

There are so many news opinions about how the incumbent did so much better than the polls showing how good the effort was and how he should be congratulated. It reminds me of all the articles that cast aspersions on a champion who was the favorite and win a hard 5 set match.

those are the kind that one loves to win. gives the loser a undeserved does of confidence . but the pleasure is greatest when you win a close one as it so demoralizes the loses and cases him so much pain

leaves the looes and his supported with a box of "if onlys" ratjer than getting bak to the drawing boards and fixing his game.

B litigated against nephew Karl. ( finaly won by threatening to move bak to Bonn). Lert us hope that the former incumbent doesnt make the same mistake as B and Ryan. as out friend, the great wiswell said "after a loss it's bak to the drawing boards rite away 

Nov

6

Tweets-Nov/3/2020

November 6, 2020 | Leave a Comment

the late money favors plywood futures

bonds up at new high stocks at minimum down 21. marxists are losing. least senate will be rep ublica n

same results for sp as last time. oddnow 20 1 in favor trump. as soon as odds starting go for trum the spwnet u50 ppts form 3350 to 3410 . bods nwo up only 1 1/2 pointsp

odds now 69.5 % for trump to win and 30% fior biiden to win from lott stpssel site. funny to see the odds chanbe y 33.5% for tump and -34% for biden in last day

Nov

6

Tweets-Nov/1/2020

November 6, 2020 | Leave a Comment

very rare consilience of 20 day minum in bonds and sp both as of friday close;;this too will pass, especially 10 days later for both

cnn.com/2020/10/30/health/household-spread-covid-19-wellness/index.html the swamp continue to do whatever they can to do incumbent in.. the study seems lie propaganda. how woudlyou refute it? for one k what is the symptiom and outcome rate?

Nov

2

Perhaps of interest from my online journal:

https://stpeter.im/journal/1653.html

Nov

2

lets Try

November 2, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

Tony Bobulinski held presser claiming Joe Biden knew about Hunter's business deals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiiSq7toqlQ

Bill Egan writes: 

Bill Rafter has a very nice model.

Yes, rolling windows mean you cannot use standard inference.

So what?

Use the levels and turning points and curve shapes. Apply visual pattern recognition.

Look back over 20-30 years and see how it performs. For example, high volatility vs low volatility years can cause differences.

You are missing out on $$$ by insisting on using only methods where inference works.

Nov

2

lets try

November 2, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

Tony Bobulinski held presser claiming Joe Biden knew about Hunter's business deals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiiSq7toqlQ

Bill Egan writes: 

Bill Rafter has a very nice model.

Yes, rolling windows mean you cannot use standard inference.

So what?

Use the levels and turning points and curve shapes. Apply visual pattern recognition.

Look back over 20-30 years and see how it performs. For example, high volatility vs low volatility years can cause differences.

You are missing out on $$$ by insisting on using only methods where inference works.

Nov

2

Tweets-Oct/29/2020

November 2, 2020 | Leave a Comment

cellophane big guy wiens his lead in betting odds slitely markets at 20 day minimum should be up from here by closes

residents of big ciities whether red or blue prepare for storming of bastille by hiring armed guards .

at lest the bonds at a new 20 day low dont want bailoutws and lock downs

free associations venezuala , e Germany vers w germany, Us as failed nation, many replete with inequities, waiting liens at emergency rooms, paying 50% more for health plans, young people losing opp to invest in future, activities that make life worth livng,, French Rev.

reflexively racist,pessimistic view, cllapsed buildings, "unrest collapsed buildings, monuments, cancel culture,smartest guy I know, likely cabinet intellect, market prefers collectivism, betting odds at 70%, 400 million arbitraged,,bookies dont allow for 52 % against

pessimism about country carries over to nasdaq, stocks just a gnat above tues, low and 20 day low at 11200, earnings reports all beats brought nas down 2%

an interesting read from commentary carried by the wssj

the final quote is timeless. commentary poitn sout that Trump is not a wel mannered conservative who speaks in elegant terms and reads good boooks. He s like the coommon man that Truman was. he consludes " The average american is a common man . As a result we are the

we are the riches, powerful, tolerant, and freeist in Human human history

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