Oct

27

Pinnacle and many others are now posting state by state betting lines that may offer interesting overlays to those with detailed knowledge.
Pinnacle
Some of the battleground states:
Arizona: +118 Trump Biden -143
Florida: -128 Trump Biden +106
Georgia: -177 Trump Biden +131
Mich:  +239 Trump Biden -304
Minn:  +251 Trump Biden -322
N Car:  +100 Trump Biden -121
Ohio:   -250 Trump Biden +200
Penn:   +184 Trump Biden -228
Texas:  -375 Trump Biden +287
Wisc:  +225 Trump Biden -285

They have the overall election at   +190 Trump Biden -217

Oct

27

Tweets-Oct/26/2020

October 27, 2020 | Leave a Comment

possibly a goo d entry at 3428 sp at 220 am et

Oct

27

Tweets-Oct/25/2020

October 27, 2020 | Leave a Comment

compliancecultureblog.com/2018/03/07/integrity-of-game-play-referee-bias/… compared to the home court bias and the popular pressure bias the incumbent seems to receive a level of bias 1000 times worse. the suposedly impartial comittees and agencies are all 90% wuth swamp

big media are canceling news of? wealth of the son and brothers. 4. big bus favors the big guy because he is less unpredictable than the alternative according to wsj.survery. 4. they feel he will do things pragmatic to help the lower middle classes.5. what is best way ?

a few things seem clear to me. 1. if the news about the big guys familyhad some out before the dem convention, a different progressive ( perhaps bernie ) would be the candidate. 2. the progressives are hoding their fire until afterl the election . 3. the big media and tech are 

Oct

26

K. K. Law writes: 

Tony Bobulinski held presser claiming Joe Biden knew about Hunter's business deals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiiSq7toqlQ

Penny Brown writes: 

Why didn't this come out sooner?  Wouldn't it have been more effective to drop the bombshell before so many votes were turned in?

Or was it purposively held back to last minute so there were be no time to refute?

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

The answer is that the smart Republicans in AZ, FL, PA and elsewhere learned from 2018.  They know that you have to let the Democrats vote first so that they can't figure out how many "extra" votes they will need to find on Election Day to overtake the Republicans' "lead".  When the Republicans are behind, there is no way for the Democrats to make that calculation.  Remember, kids, that successful voter fraud is a two-step trade: first, you need the Registrations, then you need the ballots.  Even in Philadelphia you can't these days vote more people than you already have on the voter rolls.  (Oh, for the good old days.)

Oct

26

Tweets-Oct/24/2020

October 26, 2020 | Leave a Comment

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_drive… the big guy widens his lead to 28 percentage points after the debates and the change in views on fracking and the denial of impropriety with relatives on Ukraine and China and the market goes up

i should say :" come in contact with" rather than " met".on ewonders why the hard drive of the son stayed at the bureau for 3 months withouto leaking or action

with the big guy firmly in control, and his lead in te betting odds seemingly insurmoutnable, the regularties for the next week in sp are are very bull. a surge for the incumb could change it as would a devastating down move in bonds

Oct

26

Tweets-Oct/23/2020

October 26, 2020 | Leave a Comment

what a contempt politicians have for us mortals. " even though Joe Biden does not share our poltical beliefs ( he is much better than the alternative ) says michael Moore. how have big boys purporte dpolitical beliefs changed since the Dem convention

Oct

23

Bosch

October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al Genubi writes: 

Murakami writes,"convenient approximations bring you closest to comprehending the true nature of things.

Laurel Kenner writes: 

 Also:  Walter Mosley's two series of noir set in LA and NYC, with heroes East Rawlings and Leonid McGill.  Inherent Vice and the Crying of Lot 49, by the paranoid master Thomas Pynchon 

and Raymond Chandler for the ultimate portrait of prewar LA. 

Peter Saint-Andre  writes: 

My wife, who is a big fan of the Bosch series, also recommends the Joe

Gary Boddicker  writes: 

I’ll second the C.J. Box recco, but I’m biased. Chuck was my next door dorm neighbor many years ago at Denver U and a friend. He would disappear into his room (even in the midst of a party) and we’d hear the typewriter banging for hours as we waited in anticipation…out would come a double-spaced, creative, plotted, story…usually things had “gone Western” and the bad guys met a very satisfying end. 

He is a wonderful example of someone who always knew what he loved to do, kept working at it until he got a break, and is now among the best in his field. He’s been banging out one or two a year for many years now and you won’t be bored. Especially appealing to those who appreciate the modern West, it’s people, the outdoors, and a good story. 

Oct

23

The 538 national polling average 12 days before Election Day.
2020: Biden+9.8
2016: Clinton+6.0
2012: Romney+1.2

Oct

23

Al the Hermit Bo

October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Al the Hermit of Slab City, CA died on or about 21 October, 2020, and I’m not sure where the body is.
His demise will interest no one except collectors and students of those who accumulate like packrats so many items in their lifetimes that they may cave in and crush or suffocate them.
 My buddy Al lived alone in the most remote, inaccessible toenail of Slab City near Walmart Wash. A decade ago, he had driven his old Chevy van as close to Salvation Mountain as he wished, and mired it on the hubs in the sand that became his home.  He was about 80 years old.
He was a former advertising ace for McCall’s magazine in NYC, until deciding life in the fast lane wasn’t worth it, and spent his savings traveling the world until retiring ten years ago to the Slabs. He was seldom seen, known by fewer, and kept to himself except to walk in all seasons for three miles to the nearest bus stop in Niland to ride to the Brawley, Ca. library. He was transcribing his life formulas from some 50 spiral notebooks onto a memory stick that he hoped someone would read one day and turn into a book. It was a lifelong quest, but a gibberish of math, Hebrew, philosophy, and pith. He shared it with me once that revealed thousands of lines of what appears to be an ancient language lost to time.
Everything else he owned was inside the van crashed around his mattress on the floor that was wet with urine and feces with the unmistakable stench of death, I figured, about two days earlier in these 90F fall days. The spiral notebooks were there in ziplock bags, and five large garbage bags of memorabilia and correspondence dating back to the dime stamp. including his wedding picture.  I donned a Corona mask against the reek and pulled a couple recent letters to write the senders in New England of his demise.
His false teeth were still on the table, and I snatched his reading glasses. The only other things of note were stuffed animals all over the place and one carcass of a rabbit that was just fur, claws, and teeth in the driver’s seat.
Then I went and sat outside the van and stared off into the sky thinking, Al had it good here. It’s quiet, close to a wash for walking, a beautiful view of Salvation Mountain, and no neighbors. As I thought, a quad bumped over the wash, turned toward the van, and drove right up.
‘I was wondering if it were true,’ said the lady I know. I replied, ‘It appears he died within the past few days. You may look inside, everything is intact except Al.’ The rider lit a cigarette, “I gave him a lift many times over the years. He was a tough old bird.’ I asked, ‘When did the coroner come?’ ‘Coroner? I don’t know.’
She sped off as I wondered how she knew about the death. Probably smelled it from the same wash I had hiked up. I rose and walked an enlarging spiral around the van, and 50 yards away found matching quad tracks. She also happens to be the same individual who found, and moved, the body of Mama Jean one year ago.
A dead body is more valuable than a live one in Slab City if the deceased has a bank account, which Al and Mama Jean did. The technique is to milk the account of its auto-deposits of SSI, which both were on, until the death is discovered by the authorities.
I couldn’t report this to the sheriff or ask the coroner if indeed he had picked up a corpse in a van because they would call me crazy that anyone would move dead bodies to steal their identities.. Besides, my fingerprints are all over the inside of Al’s van.
So, I sat outside, thinking this is likely what the passed citizens would wish for. Why not someone make money from the government after one’s death for as long as possible? It’s a racket out here.    

Oct

23

Tweets-Oct/22/2020

October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

for whats eems like the 80 th time the s p slips badly at the close and we see why now as the fbi makes a semblance of bing there. neverthelss the big deline ins sp at 3421 is much overwrought

the big boys lead advances to 26 percentage pts,, near a max no disclosure seem sufficient to unwrap the cellophane.the debate with fellow travelers setting rules .  

moderating should be de rigeur all in all a further augmentation of agrarian which the market loves

the bonds hit set a new 20 day low in the 172 handle showing that some believe in the Mises analysis that uncontoled inflation will be the next pandemic. presumablly this means a heads up for the stimulus bill after falling apart at the close 5 days in a row to be passed 

Oct

23

Tweets-Oct/21/2020

October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

beginning to hit the bonds at 20 day low. senate odds move up against the big boys party. stocks intnerruptus yesterday

recentlly a woman's march, and now a commmittee for justice.. let us hopep the big boy wins so that a reign doestn begin

one calls out for a speedier , more humane,less painful,and more effcient way . where is the americaan Joseph Ignatus

a barron coleman day so far. 'eveythings up except my widdler "

thanks for ht e kona coffee mr. sogi. perhaps i soud send you some3 ebigers peach pie in a few minutes. how often can lacik of stimulus tank the market last houri owe yoyuthis time mr. sogi ebingers went out of busienss due to declining taste for sweets and competitin from entemans.. it ws russian interference and sdisinformation. tooo much chess and not enuf checkers

Oct

23

Tweets-Oct/20/2020

October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a di rigeur day with bonds hitting the 173 handle and sp paying abeisance to Mr. sogi a few times. the BIG guy has cellophane around him and maintains his lead of 26 percentage pts. as stated the market loves socialism and the Jacobins have it n their hitting box

Oct

21

Hi vol Big Bar

October 21, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Another regular thing lately is after big boys finish dumping their excess into the close, the after market slowly rises up again. Here the half round tractor beam is assisting.

Oct

21

Alex Forshaw   writes: 

CA's property tax system is idiotic and the most dysfunctional in the country.

Property taxes are assessed on purchased basis, not on assessed value. So somebody who bought a home 30 years ago for $10,000 could pay 1/10th (or less) the property tax of someone in an identical house next door.

It has placed a huge relative tax burden on recent home buyers. It has subsidized the aging hippies who bought into CA 30 years ago, who have subsequently voted to throttle housing supply in the name of environmentalism for their own benefit

Kim Zussman writes: 

Your thesis is based on commonality with losers and supplicants.  The only ones subsidized, ever and always, are the socialist organizers. 

Check back with us when you're at the end of your earning years.  Without 13 those who always know better would squeeze you out of your house when you are old and useless to them.  Even if you followed the rules, paid your taxes, and paid off the mortgage, there is always marketable pathos in the unending supply of hungry mouths to feed.

Alex Forshaw writes: 

I'm a raging conservative and I think taxes suck. But if you're going to buy into the idea of a property tax, levy it in a way that's transparent and affects people on a logical and consistent basis. The CA property tax system charges nothing to people who bought 30-50 years ago (who are sitting on gigantic paper gains) and does the opposite to new buyers. It's totally inequitable, capricious, and creates lots of terrible incentives, more so than any other vanilla state tax that I can think of.

Larry W  writes: 

Howards point, and success of prop13, was the unfairness to people that had lived/worked in homes for year and could not afford the tax hike until they sold those gains are illusory until sold and the state was taxing a value the owner never pocketed

BTW Howard was pretty amazing ball of energy, perhaps I’ll share some stories of being on the campaign trail with him one of these days

Oct

20

On Saturday a fire started and ripped 8000 acres and traveled more the 10
miles in less than 3 hours till finally firefighters made a stand at a wide,
two-lane road. 26 homes burnt to the ground. No one hurt thank goodness. Next
day another fire starts first reported at 5 acres.  Extrapolating from the
prior day, fire 2 should be closing in on Boulder in 6 hours.  Yet, it did not
happen. Fire 2 never got within 12 miles or above 300 acres. Credit goes to
brave pilots in DC-10 Airtankers and firefighters on the ground.  Those planes
are as sight to behold as they graze the tree line spreading 10,000 gallons of
fire retardant at a pop. Wind, moisture, terrain, plane availability, fuel can
all be put into models and they may help, but it is execution and
improvisation that really save the day.

Oct

20

Larry W  writes: 

Who wants to watch a game when you know it will be a lopsided victory?

Only die-hards. If you have been told by the MSM your guy, who you are only luke-warm about to begin with, is 10 points up….no need to go vote.

MSM shoots themselves in the foot.!

Gus Glads  writes: 

Larry– I see your point and, to some extent, that explains 2016. 

But it's a different kind of "game" this time around. This isn't about voting for "your guy" to win. It's about voting down the other "guy" because you'll do whatever it takes to ensure that he loses. And the bigger the loss on the scoreboard the better. A much different calculus, which will lead to much different behavior this time around.

Larry W  writes: 

Disagree turn out is based on enthusiasm not hate—look at RR and BObam turn outs as an example  hate/revenge, surveys say, do not turn out voters

Gus Glads  writes: 

I agree Larry but you’re talking about normal times, with normal candidates 

No precedent for what he’s created

Record #s will be recorded this election 

He has dug his own hole and it’s deep

Too many think he has some magic dust that he’s sprinkling — ain’t no magic in that dust my friends.

Oct

20

Tweets-Oct/19/2020

October 20, 2020 | Leave a Comment

slite reductioln in Big Guys lead to 21 percentge pt from 34 to 42 1 week ago. dax refuses to go up today with sp. ecovering contrived russian news at 4 pm friday which caused decline of 37 full pts

Oct

20

Tweets-Oct/18/2020

October 20, 2020 | Leave a Comment

From The Time It Never Rained by Elmer Kelton

Read: http://tl.gd/n_1srehkt

Oct

19

Election Thoughts

October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Peter Ringel  writes: 

love all of these relative strength thoughts / models.

The market is much stronger than the seasonal pattern

Thus the next seasonal low should springboard a better than usual rally

If trump wins expect larger rally than if biden carries the day (better rallies when party stays in power, thanks JH)

That’s my strategy

I don't known what drove this rally, but I assume election uncertainty is bearish. Since the mkt is not - we have a monster driver in here.

There's a humongous fungus amungus!

 … disprove my fear of a  media/swamp

Wait ! there is any doubt left ? :)

K. K. Law  writes: 

Don't know for sure, but the recent bull trend could correlate with the potential Trump November win. Will see if it will take out the Aug/Sept highs. If it forms a double top and reverses, that would be a different story.

Oct

19

…..of the efficacy of betting markets predicting the real election outcomes, anywhere?
Can the Theory of Reflexivity not been hoped to work and the bets are manipulated? 
Both questions may appear related but are deeply apart.  

Oct

19

Election Modeling

October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

For the encore, will do Tip Toe Through the Tulips, while wearing a tutu.  

Oct

19

Elimination Games

October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Astros won their elimination game.  Three of them in a row.

Dodgers appear to be winning their second of two elimination games.

My historical analysis of baseball elimination games suggests it will be a Astros / Dodgers World Series.

Oct

19

So everyone is looking at the technicals: the polls?  How about the fondamental part: the scandal?

Oct

19

Tweets-Oct/17/2020

October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

2-5-2018 a monday the market dropped 81 pts from 3pm to 4.15: but the declines want over to 4 am on feb 6, 2018

What;s happpening oon walll street1 1. The Bit guy's lead is whittled down to 26 percentage pts. still 2 to 1 in his favor. 2. The bonds and stocks have both ended close to u nchanged 2 days in a row. The paper of record has a feature article extolling free speech-

they disdain to cover the many newsworhty and verifiable authenticity of the Big Guys activities. 4. The Mailman showos that oenshould never give up 

Oct

19

Tweets-Oct/16/2020

October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

but indeed there have been 8 such moves of 38 of more pts, since 2011, the greatest being 2-11-1998, a day that will live in infamy

the sp toook a surprising 38 pt drop from 3 pm to the futures close moving spf from up 15 on the day to down 10 at 415 . you mite thini that this is unpreced 

Oct

16

Supply Chain

October 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

A few months ago Ralph mentioned the possibility of supply chain disruptions. My seawater pump on my sailboat is leaking.  When I went to try order a new pump the supplier said there are no sea water pumps in the country, and the manufacturer has been shut down for 2 months due to covid.  I'm on a waiting list.  

I also questioned the effects on real estate. In Hawaii my broker friend tells me that buyers from the mainland are snapping up multimillion dollars houses sight unseen and that prices are strong. They must figure that if they work remotely, why not be in Hawaii.   They haven't experienced the time difference.  I'll tell you that waking up at 3am in the morning is not easy, and it also means you have to go to bed early, so its tough. But someone's got to do it. 
The Airbnb's are all shut down, so I think some of those are on market.   
Due to a lack of tourists and snow birds I'm guessing the rental market is not as tight as it was.  We have no horn honking tourists and no heavy traffic, so its quite nice.
 I'm pushing our candidates to ease off on the heavy dependance on tourism as it can be destructive and unreliable.  Better industries in tech, like the woman who won the Nobel prize discovering the Black Hole in the center of Milky Way at Keck Observatory on Mauna Kea.  A friend worked up there as a tech up there for his entire career.

Oct

16

Tweets-Oct/15/2020

October 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Bonds conntinue on their merry way goingu whenever stoocks go down. the forces of " big gov" were not able to enable sp to rise for two consecutive days. the pes odds continue to worsen against the incumbent with a 30 percentge pt. differential

Oct

16

Tweets-Oct/13/2020

October 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment

just to set the record straight for a great man and great book https://goodreads.com/book/show/1051837.The_Economic_Way_of_Thinking… this book i've read over and learned from at lest 10 times.. no diagrams or mathematcis just clear reasoning on the economic way of thinkin

foxnews.com/politics/amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court-confirmation-hearing-notepad… 3 cheers touche.. d's willl have to be very carefu to hold their fire on her like thyeve agreed to with Bernie

amazing that bonds bak to their old habits going upp a fulll point on the first day down off almost alll time high in stocks. somehow they dont believe how Mises said it will all end in runaway inflation

mr. fanta notes that the 2 dya has been down 15 consecuitve days.. have you tested that? is what you shoud ask about allll suc phenomena which goes over and beyond the t urn to socialism

sometimes the sure turn to socialism is not bullish for a day… should be bak to woke bulishness tomorrow 

Oct

13

Huvve Soo

October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Huvve Soo is a powerful expression of the markets at Dalal Street in Mumbai. A phrase from the more popular vernacular on this street, i.e. Gujarati language is chuckled up to mean literally Now what or so What! 
An expression that without the slightest of the twitch of the nose or lifting of the eyelids is slowly muttered out with a warm breath. 
So if Trump Wins, the traders on Dalal Street may say with boredom Huvvee Soo. 
However, if Trump loses, my surmise is the whole world may ask "Now what will happen?". 
This world has got aligned to having far right regimes across the globe. Arguably the most influential nation losing that far right stance will mean this wave of far right governments across continents is coming to an abrupt halt. Never in the 20th century, if my memory serves right, the difference between the GDP Growth Rate differential between China and the rest of the world was wider! While it was a point of global angst when everyone was doing well and China was doing too well, it is going to be hurting all sensibilities much more when China has begun to do well, being the only nation with a positive GDP growth rate and everyone else is hovering at -10% just now. 
I can go on and on to explain my bias that if Trump loses this wont be the same world I have been happy in for several years. But thats my own bias. 
In marketspeak, I place another surmise that the usual thing many a bettors on the bourses do around a major election that they use the election betting rink as a hedge to their market exposure will fail either ways this time! 
Whether Trump wins or he loses, markets are likely to do a Huvve Soo either side. Its another story politically i may feel happy if the aggressive big man with yellow hair wins & with that happiness I may still short the markets if a reversal works out with the typical huvve soo. 
But the point on the table for eventual dismissal after evaluation by the wiser on this list is: The election betting market will fail to predict the S&P this time round. Whatdyasay? 

Oct

13

Good Quote

October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

From wsj article on profits  "Night and day there are businessmen out there thinking of ways to feed us, to entertain us, to keep us healthy, to help us communicate — all out of a desire for profit.  The profit motive is the producer’s motive.  It is the desire to prosper by creating and offering for sale the values we need to live and enjoy life — and to spearhead the invention of new values that raise our standard of living.   The profit motive is the foundation of human happiness and human progress." — from the book "Equal is Unfair" by Yaron Brook and Don Watkins

Richard Owen  writes: 

Hi Vic - a noble story. It does feel though that if you tried to launch any benchmark business in recent years (presumably with a tech enabled angle) with the intention of collecting real profits, you were done for. QE took away the discount rate and corrupted the need for profits and perhaps underwrote much of the current chaos. With a 3% real fed, housing would be affordable and Jeff Bezos a lot poorer, allegedly two roots for mass discontent. And maybe the aim of competing improvements in products and services drove capitalism some time ago. Because there was a large productivity gap between what people were capable of and what they achieved. But now people seem to be operating closer to the asymptote. Where I am currently living there are three identical copies of Uber, and the only way to differentiate their product is who is willing to accept the biggest deficit of profits until the competition goes bankrupt. Capitalism's main end is no longer who is attracted by profits but who can most convincingly promise unrealistic distant future profits. Imagine there's no antitrust, it's easy if you try, no competition below us, above us, only sky.

Hernan Avella writes: 

Nevermind the rents extracted by businesses that nobody needs and are the product of cronyism and regulatory capture. Think 401k plan administrators and health care insurance middle men. H

Oct

13

SPEC-LIST

October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al Genubi  writes: 

It looks like there are sharp steep drops and no other chance to buy, then an unrelenting drive upwards.  The election discussion, I think, is related and why SJ's call last election was important. The problem, for me,  is staying up all night.

Arthur Khaldarov  writes: 

There were other guys that predicted the opposite of SJ's call and right now we would've been quoting them.

…(obviously, if their prediction came true).

This list can tackle mini problems and become a great source of knowledge. Ideas are dime a dozen, but here we can analyze 3 a week and maybe have some home runs.

Ralph Vince writes: 

There is nothing to prevent others from contributing ideas here, market, electoral, whatever, and the political ones as well. 

there is not a limited number of messages per day or a limited number of topics.

There is however a limited number of people on this list, and only a subset who contribute. This argument rings of being dissatisfied that those who are contributing aren't being interesting enough. Those who have contacted you off list and complained about the electoral discussion have been welcome at any time to contribute all sorts of diverse topics here in addition to whatever is being discussed at the moment.

Oct

13

Tweets-Oct/12/2020

October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

https://foxnews.com/politics/fauci-comments-out-of-context… final deth blow. rather loathsome

challenger holding fire axcept lobs that green new deal is still favored.. looks like deal to keep silent for a few weeks has been made implicitly

15 days sicne 2 day sp down

Oct

13

Tweets-Oct/11/2020

October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

challl lead at maximu at 325 nikkei at high, bonds creeping up fro low. tiimes re;ports 1 after another negative about pres. character and integrity. what do they have on tap for next days

wsj.com/articles/to-serve-the-public-seek-profits-11602435735?mod=hp_opin_pos_2… forgive me for saying that marxism, big government isnt good for markets nor is taxing just the ones that make the most

"Night and day there are businessmen out there thinking of ways to feed us, to entertain us, to keep us (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sre9j1

Oct

13

Tweets-Oct/10/2020

October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

much discussio has takenpalce that after the election with bidne continuing to maxiize hsi lead at 31 percentage pts, the r willnever again be elected. the three new states , the end of the filibuster, have been mentioned, the widening of voting to felons and open borders

what not mentioend is that all the new bailouts create new voters beholden to big government, ,socialized activiity, , ith each new deal more become beholden.. the money spent on bailouts could have been spent by consuemrs on consump. future output will take big hit

https://listverse.com/2014/05/02/10-cruel-death-marches-from-modern-history/… add to this the steady drum beat of incresing government before electionthat now has market totallly in favor of d's and more socializationk, and higher taxes, and soaking the rich.

The d and obvilioysly hodlignitheir fire ad challenger mover to the center to garner votes, but harris and sanders havehungry lookds and like the french rev after they gain power, the chinese walls will break down.

Oct

9

The asymmetry of real vol is always amazing with sudden drops and then the steady grind upwards.

Oct

9

Big Al writes: 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/money-and-elections-a-complicated-love-story/ Money is certainly strongly associated with political success. But, “I think where you have to change your thinking is that money causes winning,” said Richard Lau, professor of political science at Rutgers. “I think it’s more that winning attracts money.”

Stefan Jovanovich  writes: 

Did I miss the memo?  Has there been an edict that particular facts are to be subsumed into coy academic attempts at irony?

There is one professor book that created the standard for electoral analysis and predictions: *The American Voter* by Angus Campbell, Philip Converse, Warren Miller, and Donald Stokes.  They produced a detailed analysis of the 1952 and 1956 Presidential elections using what is still a wonderfully subtle methodology.  Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Helmut Norpoth, William G. Jacoby and Herbert F. Weisberg took that work, applied the extraordinary advances in computing and computation since 1958 and revisited that work.  *The American Voter Revisited* does the 2000 and 2004 elections. 1952 and 1956 elections. Professor Lau thinks he has invented a superior methodology; his proof is hat his model correctly predicted how 3 out of 4 voters in a mock election made the same choice that they would have made "under conditions of perfect information". Meanwhile, Professor Norpoth continues to stick his neck out and make a prediction every 4 years based on his primary turnout model.  (For those who don't know it, he picks Trump.)

You can do better, Big Al.

Duncan Coker  writes: 

Since you brought up the 1952 and 1956 for those who don't remember Adlai Stephenson was the Democratic candidate against Eisenhower.  It marked the start of televised and advertised campaigns.  It also launched the start of a company called Simulmatics.  They were the first to apply data and simulation to campaigns and politics, granted they were using punch card tech.  Parsing data into groups like "white non-college educated, rural voter" or "women suburbanites" they were the first to use. Kennedy hired them in earnest to help him get elected.  They did not predict elections so much as the issues that might turn elections and which side was best.  For Kennedy they recommended expanding civil right issues, not hiding from being Catholic and more debates.  They were not wrong but perhaps Kennedy would have done all thee things anyway.  Today take the same process, but multiply the computing

speed by 1 million x.  All in a very good book called If Then by Jill Lepore.

Oct

9

ultimately the market will showrevulsion with the socailistagenda. the questio is whethert he revulsio beings overnnite or at 1 pm todya. alll the money spent on non-productivea ctivities willl eventualy haunt as in digginig adn filling holes in the desert

he market continues to act like it loves socialism

Oct

7

Four years ago these were the numbers:
NBC Clinton +14
ABC Clinton +12
CBS Clinton + 11
AP Clinton +13
Monmouth Clinton +12
Atlantic Clinton +12
USA Today Clinton +10
CNBC Clinton +10

Oct

7

okay i do know much about racket sports. everal readers have given their take. but it's like faking a drop shot, and having your adversary rush to the net and then hitting him in the testiacles with a hard drive

i try not to tweet about things i am ignorant about but my ignorance is great. if some fencer can say what tripe intentions really is , the readers and I would reallly appreciate it

that John Normile many time national epee champion and market maven

nadi laments in his book that very few of the modern 20 th century fenncers actually use triple intentions any more. shout out to johoon normile who was nat. e[ee champpion who alerted me to this lapse in modernday fencning a nd markets

https://amazon.com/Fencing-Aldo-Nadi/dp/188452804X… triple intention is faking a move that yo ur opponent reacts to and then making your coutner move to his delivery

nadi on triple intention

chabce gardner should be on triple guard today. 1last tiime he killed market. as 2 he did yesterday with illl chosen naivewords. and 3 presumably mrk tokhim to the wood shed after 2

back to 3pm level tues except for 4% drop inlast hour. pres continues to fall behind by 24% from chall. bonds finally showing that Mises predicted with runawy inflation ultimately at new low again

amazing that of all that have come down from the vistorian age, the most resonant one is the series of comic operas by G and S. i find the same self dealing ,posturing in congress then as now. if you want to be ruler of the queens navy stay close to your cellar. wear mask

kudlow must have been in quaran pres must have acted without him. kudlow sayihg to himself " i told you so. dont go off on a limb. consult me first as you have in past. pres is his own man even though he know as little about sp as chance gardner does about economy.what a combo

amazing pres seems think he won debate, that the women dont see their abusve divorced husbands in him but now chall pretnds that he;s not a socialist ,that all his previous leanings were window dressings. lets see if most lib record in congress ms. harris can pull sme trick

surprise annouce was good for 1000 dow pts down in just 2 hours at low of 500 pm. lost in shuffle was cattle trader trying to cover up hier emails with accuation of russian collusion by opponent. no sympathy surge for pres. no matter what he does, its against him

incumb is feeling better but his bettigodds witih at keast 159mm wagered keep going against him. now 61% vs 25% against. even more worrisome is chances of repub senate at 64-36 against. the surprise announcemnet at 250 pn nust have taken Kudlow by surprise as in middle of da 

Oct

7

incumbent is bak in white house but his defecit in bettingi odds increses to 24 percentage pts. bonds at another 20 day lo at open

ignoramus running economy and politicking 

Oct

6

one improtant lesson to learn is to hae astoppping rule concerning an activity when there has been a run of good fotune rhather than a loss..e.g.. the idea of stoppping when youlve lost a thousand bucks at vegas is worse than stopping when youve made a thou.

there will be no moreo predictions forom this twitter for a while.

one of those days where every half hour price from 6 pm to present was withing 7 pts of open or preivous price. public has no rite to be insulated from loss so much as bacon would say.

this has to be tested as everything else.. i would say this applies to a series of trades with the same gravumen rather than to an individual disparate trade

bonds very quietly arabesking to a 20 day low at open

the wikipedia page on the french revolution iswritten from a woke perspective. no mantionwhatsoever aobut the reign of terror and the 10000 who were guillotine and loss of property. one of causes according to wiki was the deregulation of prices. the french revolution

to me is very relevant to today especially as a predictor of the increasing interventions and big government sure to come especiallyif the incumbent wins

17000 not 10000

a better summary then wiki on the reign of terror, the law of 22, the 50000 to 220000 that were killed

Oct

5

amazing drop in pres. odds of winning . now 61% fro chall and 27% for incumb. a differential of 24 percentage pts verus 7 or 8 1 week ago, cattle trader somehow moves up to 2% . the reign of retribution willl come. whol will be the next robespierre. what does this foretell?

unsung major caus e of swings was bias of chris walllace against trump. so many areas he prevented biden from admitting no police force, let him off on hunter. . let hism call pres a lia and clown. reminds mf of the bias alll refere had against me when i won 10 natnls in row

Oct

5

market has never been down more than 25 at 9 am on an employment analysis. it was bearishas of thur close. the tendency on the times it was down aroudn25 is for it to down to 910 then up. only 6 obseervations . on major pres. illnesses the market recovers after thefirst day . then by 5 days lat er iit's bak to the pre sickness news. the pres ods moved to 60% versus 35% for 'challanger. that should keep it down for the early hours

usually the m market knows about these events before it anouced. perhaps the declineat 210 on thur. was related to thsi announcement i see no other evidence of any front running

mr ag trader tweets that cpper knew before hand but stocks cratered at 12 35 am going down 1% , as far as u can see cper made a mmajormove up at 330 am. perhaps im mssiing some thing. i dont trade copperr-lack of liquidity. susan was first woman copper trader on floor

as marty riesman would say next five minutes from 915 to 920 am et arekey. danger of falllign to round number seems less liekly at 920 bulll frhm there

the glitter falls off at 945 acck=odriding tomy numbers willl we be visitign mr. sogi beofroe then>

mr sogi i lll have to leave you above 3353 you cant have breakfast alll day

mr. sogi it;s bee too log since i visitied you in your favorite adobe. i ;m sort of close to you and they say surfing is very good for keepihg healthy for those of age 

Oct

5

if ine had to guess for the rest oof the day, the market loves big government deciding how, andwho, and what to do do

perhaps more government in thenext half hour or so

Oct

1

Fact of the Week

October 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

George Zachar writes: 

The Manhattan Project guys were all (Jewish) immigrants too. Richard Feynman was a native New Yorker, who grew up in the Rockaways.

Stefan Jovanovich  writes: 

Apologies for not including Feynman; my explanation is that he was a "junior" scientist.  The complete list of scientists and engineers who worked on the thing runs into the thousands.

Dendi Suhubdy writes: 

I’m worried that the Chinese government would win this artificial intelligence cold war to be honest. There are a lot of people who just devote their lives in China to annotate labels and also to code deep learning code in C++.

In Montreal there are probably 400 of us max. And I haven’t seen a precision guided missile using deep learning and simuated reinforcement learning whatsoever. You can simulate multiple times in a simulator that a missile can hit a target, given enough time and computational resources. You then transfer the learning e.g weights from that to the real missile and calibrate.

That would help the missile be guided by literally only a 180 wide angle camera even if it looses GPS capabilities.

The US isn’t innovating rapid enough. Never seen that in a SBIR announcement.

Oct

1

Whenever trump was scoring a point , wallace cut him oof. when heasked biden toname on e police force that  was in favor of him,  wallace moved to next question.  same when he was asked whether he was going tostack the supreme court. bidden answered vote. and t hat stopped it.  also, when asked about blm  itwas again stoped.   also,  trump lost all female votes because he reminded them of their abusive divorced husbands.   trumpp shouldnt have brought up the  point about biden being smart.   3ewpecailly since  the incumsked someone on our list to take gr  examsx for him… amny way  walllac e  was likke the old man referee who  couldnt adjust to  changing conditions and  was biased against incumbent

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