Oct
27
State by State Election Betting Markets
October 27, 2020 | Leave a Comment
They have the overall election at +190 Trump Biden -217
Oct
27
Tweets-Oct/26/2020
October 27, 2020 | Leave a Comment
possibly a goo d entry at 3428 sp at 220 am et
Oct
27
Tweets-Oct/25/2020
October 27, 2020 | Leave a Comment
compliancecultureblog.com/2018/03/07/integrity-of-game-play-referee-bias/… compared to the home court bias and the popular pressure bias the incumbent seems to receive a level of bias 1000 times worse. the suposedly impartial comittees and agencies are all 90% wuth swamp
big media are canceling news of? wealth of the son and brothers. 4. big bus favors the big guy because he is less unpredictable than the alternative according to wsj.survery. 4. they feel he will do things pragmatic to help the lower middle classes.5. what is best way ?
a few things seem clear to me. 1. if the news about the big guys familyhad some out before the dem convention, a different progressive ( perhaps bernie ) would be the candidate. 2. the progressives are hoding their fire until afterl the election . 3. the big media and tech are
Oct
26
Tony Bobulinski Held Presser Claiming Joe Biden Knew About Hunter’s Business Deals
October 26, 2020 | Leave a Comment
K. K. Law writes:
Tony Bobulinski held presser claiming Joe Biden knew about Hunter's business deals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiiSq7toqlQ
Penny Brown writes:
Why didn't this come out sooner? Wouldn't it have been more effective to drop the bombshell before so many votes were turned in?
Or was it purposively held back to last minute so there were be no time to refute?
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
The answer is that the smart Republicans in AZ, FL, PA and elsewhere learned from 2018. They know that you have to let the Democrats vote first so that they can't figure out how many "extra" votes they will need to find on Election Day to overtake the Republicans' "lead". When the Republicans are behind, there is no way for the Democrats to make that calculation. Remember, kids, that successful voter fraud is a two-step trade: first, you need the Registrations, then you need the ballots. Even in Philadelphia you can't these days vote more people than you already have on the voter rolls. (Oh, for the good old days.)
Oct
26
Tweets-Oct/24/2020
October 26, 2020 | Leave a Comment
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_drive… the big guy widens his lead to 28 percentage points after the debates and the change in views on fracking and the denial of impropriety with relatives on Ukraine and China and the market goes up
i should say :" come in contact with" rather than " met".on ewonders why the hard drive of the son stayed at the bureau for 3 months withouto leaking or action
with the big guy firmly in control, and his lead in te betting odds seemingly insurmoutnable, the regularties for the next week in sp are are very bull. a surge for the incumb could change it as would a devastating down move in bonds
Oct
26
Tweets-Oct/23/2020
October 26, 2020 | Leave a Comment
what a contempt politicians have for us mortals. " even though Joe Biden does not share our poltical beliefs ( he is much better than the alternative ) says michael Moore. how have big boys purporte dpolitical beliefs changed since the Dem convention
Oct
23
Bosch
October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
Murakami writes,"convenient approximations bring you closest to comprehending the true nature of things.
Laurel Kenner writes:
Also: Walter Mosley's two series of noir set in LA and NYC, with heroes East Rawlings and Leonid McGill. Inherent Vice and the Crying of Lot 49, by the paranoid master Thomas Pynchon
and Raymond Chandler for the ultimate portrait of prewar LA.
Peter Saint-Andre writes:
My wife, who is a big fan of the Bosch series, also recommends the Joe
Gary Boddicker writes:
I’ll second the C.J. Box recco, but I’m biased. Chuck was my next door dorm neighbor many years ago at Denver U and a friend. He would disappear into his room (even in the midst of a party) and we’d hear the typewriter banging for hours as we waited in anticipation…out would come a double-spaced, creative, plotted, story…usually things had “gone Western” and the bad guys met a very satisfying end.
He is a wonderful example of someone who always knew what he loved to do, kept working at it until he got a break, and is now among the best in his field. He’s been banging out one or two a year for many years now and you won’t be bored. Especially appealing to those who appreciate the modern West, it’s people, the outdoors, and a good story.
Oct
23
Think There Might Be a Pattern Here
October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment
2016: Clinton+6.0
2012: Romney+1.2
Oct
23
Al the Hermit Bo
October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Oct
23
Tweets-Oct/22/2020
October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment
for whats eems like the 80 th time the s p slips badly at the close and we see why now as the fbi makes a semblance of bing there. neverthelss the big deline ins sp at 3421 is much overwrought
the big boys lead advances to 26 percentage pts,, near a max no disclosure seem sufficient to unwrap the cellophane.the debate with fellow travelers setting rules .
moderating should be de rigeur all in all a further augmentation of agrarian which the market loves
the bonds hit set a new 20 day low in the 172 handle showing that some believe in the Mises analysis that uncontoled inflation will be the next pandemic. presumablly this means a heads up for the stimulus bill after falling apart at the close 5 days in a row to be passed
Oct
23
Tweets-Oct/21/2020
October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment
beginning to hit the bonds at 20 day low. senate odds move up against the big boys party. stocks intnerruptus yesterday
recentlly a woman's march, and now a commmittee for justice.. let us hopep the big boy wins so that a reign doestn begin
one calls out for a speedier , more humane,less painful,and more effcient way . where is the americaan Joseph Ignatus
a barron coleman day so far. 'eveythings up except my widdler "
thanks for ht e kona coffee mr. sogi. perhaps i soud send you some3 ebigers peach pie in a few minutes. how often can lacik of stimulus tank the market last houri owe yoyuthis time mr. sogi ebingers went out of busienss due to declining taste for sweets and competitin from entemans.. it ws russian interference and sdisinformation. tooo much chess and not enuf checkers
Oct
23
Tweets-Oct/20/2020
October 23, 2020 | Leave a Comment
a di rigeur day with bonds hitting the 173 handle and sp paying abeisance to Mr. sogi a few times. the BIG guy has cellophane around him and maintains his lead of 26 percentage pts. as stated the market loves socialism and the Jacobins have it n their hitting box
Oct
21
Hi vol Big Bar
October 21, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Another regular thing lately is after big boys finish dumping their excess into the close, the after market slowly rises up again. Here the half round tractor beam is assisting.
Oct
21
Howard Jarvis is Rolling Over in His Grave
October 21, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Alex Forshaw writes:
CA's property tax system is idiotic and the most dysfunctional in the country.
Property taxes are assessed on purchased basis, not on assessed value. So somebody who bought a home 30 years ago for $10,000 could pay 1/10th (or less) the property tax of someone in an identical house next door.
It has placed a huge relative tax burden on recent home buyers. It has subsidized the aging hippies who bought into CA 30 years ago, who have subsequently voted to throttle housing supply in the name of environmentalism for their own benefit
Kim Zussman writes:
Your thesis is based on commonality with losers and supplicants. The only ones subsidized, ever and always, are the socialist organizers.
Check back with us when you're at the end of your earning years. Without 13 those who always know better would squeeze you out of your house when you are old and useless to them. Even if you followed the rules, paid your taxes, and paid off the mortgage, there is always marketable pathos in the unending supply of hungry mouths to feed.
Alex Forshaw writes:
I'm a raging conservative and I think taxes suck. But if you're going to buy into the idea of a property tax, levy it in a way that's transparent and affects people on a logical and consistent basis. The CA property tax system charges nothing to people who bought 30-50 years ago (who are sitting on gigantic paper gains) and does the opposite to new buyers. It's totally inequitable, capricious, and creates lots of terrible incentives, more so than any other vanilla state tax that I can think of.
Larry W writes:
Howards point, and success of prop13, was the unfairness to people that had lived/worked in homes for year and could not afford the tax hike until they sold those gains are illusory until sold and the state was taxing a value the owner never pocketed
BTW Howard was pretty amazing ball of energy, perhaps I’ll share some stories of being on the campaign trail with him one of these days
Oct
20
Models vs Execution
October 20, 2020 | Leave a Comment
On Saturday a fire started and ripped 8000 acres and traveled more the 10
miles in less than 3 hours till finally firefighters made a stand at a wide,
two-lane road. 26 homes burnt to the ground. No one hurt thank goodness. Next
day another fire starts first reported at 5 acres. Extrapolating from the
prior day, fire 2 should be closing in on Boulder in 6 hours. Yet, it did not
happen. Fire 2 never got within 12 miles or above 300 acres. Credit goes to
brave pilots in DC-10 Airtankers and firefighters on the ground. Those planes
are as sight to behold as they graze the tree line spreading 10,000 gallons of
fire retardant at a pop. Wind, moisture, terrain, plane availability, fuel can
all be put into models and they may help, but it is execution and
improvisation that really save the day.
Oct
20
MSM Shoots Themselves in the Foot
October 20, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Larry W writes:
Who wants to watch a game when you know it will be a lopsided victory?
Only die-hards. If you have been told by the MSM your guy, who you are only luke-warm about to begin with, is 10 points up….no need to go vote.
MSM shoots themselves in the foot.!
Gus Glads writes:
Larry– I see your point and, to some extent, that explains 2016.
But it's a different kind of "game" this time around. This isn't about voting for "your guy" to win. It's about voting down the other "guy" because you'll do whatever it takes to ensure that he loses. And the bigger the loss on the scoreboard the better. A much different calculus, which will lead to much different behavior this time around.
Larry W writes:
Disagree turn out is based on enthusiasm not hate—look at RR and BObam turn outs as an example hate/revenge, surveys say, do not turn out voters
Gus Glads writes:
I agree Larry but you’re talking about normal times, with normal candidates
No precedent for what he’s created
Record #s will be recorded this election
He has dug his own hole and it’s deep
Too many think he has some magic dust that he’s sprinkling — ain’t no magic in that dust my friends.
Oct
20
Tweets-Oct/19/2020
October 20, 2020 | Leave a Comment
slite reductioln in Big Guys lead to 21 percentge pt from 34 to 42 1 week ago. dax refuses to go up today with sp. ecovering contrived russian news at 4 pm friday which caused decline of 37 full pts
Oct
20
Tweets-Oct/18/2020
October 20, 2020 | Leave a Comment
From The Time It Never Rained by Elmer Kelton
Read: http://tl.gd/n_1srehkt
Oct
19
Election Thoughts
October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Peter Ringel writes:
love all of these relative strength thoughts / models.
The market is much stronger than the seasonal pattern
Thus the next seasonal low should springboard a better than usual rally
If trump wins expect larger rally than if biden carries the day (better rallies when party stays in power, thanks JH)
That’s my strategy
I don't known what drove this rally, but I assume election uncertainty is bearish. Since the mkt is not - we have a monster driver in here.
There's a humongous fungus amungus!
… disprove my fear of a media/swamp
Wait ! there is any doubt left ?
K. K. Law writes:
Don't know for sure, but the recent bull trend could correlate with the potential Trump November win. Will see if it will take out the Aug/Sept highs. If it forms a double top and reverses, that would be a different story.
Oct
19
Is There Some Study Available
October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Oct
19
Election Modeling
October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Oct
19
Elimination Games
October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Astros won their elimination game. Three of them in a row.
Dodgers appear to be winning their second of two elimination games.
My historical analysis of baseball elimination games suggests it will be a Astros / Dodgers World Series.
Oct
19
No One Thinks Biden is Finished?
October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Oct
19
Tweets-Oct/17/2020
October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment
2-5-2018 a monday the market dropped 81 pts from 3pm to 4.15: but the declines want over to 4 am on feb 6, 2018
What;s happpening oon walll street1 1. The Bit guy's lead is whittled down to 26 percentage pts. still 2 to 1 in his favor. 2. The bonds and stocks have both ended close to u nchanged 2 days in a row. The paper of record has a feature article extolling free speech-
they disdain to cover the many newsworhty and verifiable authenticity of the Big Guys activities. 4. The Mailman showos that oenshould never give up
Oct
19
Tweets-Oct/16/2020
October 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment
but indeed there have been 8 such moves of 38 of more pts, since 2011, the greatest being 2-11-1998, a day that will live in infamy
the sp toook a surprising 38 pt drop from 3 pm to the futures close moving spf from up 15 on the day to down 10 at 415 . you mite thini that this is unpreced
Oct
16
Supply Chain
October 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment
A few months ago Ralph mentioned the possibility of supply chain disruptions. My seawater pump on my sailboat is leaking. When I went to try order a new pump the supplier said there are no sea water pumps in the country, and the manufacturer has been shut down for 2 months due to covid. I'm on a waiting list.
Oct
16
Tweets-Oct/15/2020
October 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Bonds conntinue on their merry way goingu whenever stoocks go down. the forces of " big gov" were not able to enable sp to rise for two consecutive days. the pes odds continue to worsen against the incumbent with a 30 percentge pt. differential
Oct
16
Tweets-Oct/13/2020
October 16, 2020 | Leave a Comment
just to set the record straight for a great man and great book https://goodreads.com/book/show/1051837.The_Economic_Way_of_Thinking… this book i've read over and learned from at lest 10 times.. no diagrams or mathematcis just clear reasoning on the economic way of thinkin
foxnews.com/politics/amy-coney-barrett-supreme-court-confirmation-hearing-notepad… 3 cheers touche.. d's willl have to be very carefu to hold their fire on her like thyeve agreed to with Bernie
amazing that bonds bak to their old habits going upp a fulll point on the first day down off almost alll time high in stocks. somehow they dont believe how Mises said it will all end in runaway inflation
mr. fanta notes that the 2 dya has been down 15 consecuitve days.. have you tested that? is what you shoud ask about allll suc phenomena which goes over and beyond the t urn to socialism
sometimes the sure turn to socialism is not bullish for a day… should be bak to woke bulishness tomorrow
Oct
13
Huvve Soo
October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Oct
13
Good Quote
October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Victor Niederhoffer writes:
From wsj article on profits "Night and day there are businessmen out there thinking of ways to feed us, to entertain us, to keep us healthy, to help us communicate — all out of a desire for profit. The profit motive is the producer’s motive. It is the desire to prosper by creating and offering for sale the values we need to live and enjoy life — and to spearhead the invention of new values that raise our standard of living. The profit motive is the foundation of human happiness and human progress." — from the book "Equal is Unfair" by Yaron Brook and Don Watkins
Richard Owen writes:
Hi Vic - a noble story. It does feel though that if you tried to launch any benchmark business in recent years (presumably with a tech enabled angle) with the intention of collecting real profits, you were done for. QE took away the discount rate and corrupted the need for profits and perhaps underwrote much of the current chaos. With a 3% real fed, housing would be affordable and Jeff Bezos a lot poorer, allegedly two roots for mass discontent. And maybe the aim of competing improvements in products and services drove capitalism some time ago. Because there was a large productivity gap between what people were capable of and what they achieved. But now people seem to be operating closer to the asymptote. Where I am currently living there are three identical copies of Uber, and the only way to differentiate their product is who is willing to accept the biggest deficit of profits until the competition goes bankrupt. Capitalism's main end is no longer who is attracted by profits but who can most convincingly promise unrealistic distant future profits. Imagine there's no antitrust, it's easy if you try, no competition below us, above us, only sky.
Hernan Avella writes:
Nevermind the rents extracted by businesses that nobody needs and are the product of cronyism and regulatory capture. Think 401k plan administrators and health care insurance middle men. H
Oct
13
SPEC-LIST
October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Zubin Al Genubi writes:
It looks like there are sharp steep drops and no other chance to buy, then an unrelenting drive upwards. The election discussion, I think, is related and why SJ's call last election was important. The problem, for me, is staying up all night.
Arthur Khaldarov writes:
There were other guys that predicted the opposite of SJ's call and right now we would've been quoting them.
…(obviously, if their prediction came true).
This list can tackle mini problems and become a great source of knowledge. Ideas are dime a dozen, but here we can analyze 3 a week and maybe have some home runs.
Ralph Vince writes:
There is nothing to prevent others from contributing ideas here, market, electoral, whatever, and the political ones as well.
there is not a limited number of messages per day or a limited number of topics.
There is however a limited number of people on this list, and only a subset who contribute. This argument rings of being dissatisfied that those who are contributing aren't being interesting enough. Those who have contacted you off list and complained about the electoral discussion have been welcome at any time to contribute all sorts of diverse topics here in addition to whatever is being discussed at the moment.
Oct
13
Tweets-Oct/12/2020
October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment
https://foxnews.com/politics/fauci-comments-out-of-context… final deth blow. rather loathsome
challenger holding fire axcept lobs that green new deal is still favored.. looks like deal to keep silent for a few weeks has been made implicitly
15 days sicne 2 day sp down
Oct
13
Tweets-Oct/11/2020
October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment
challl lead at maximu at 325 nikkei at high, bonds creeping up fro low. tiimes re;ports 1 after another negative about pres. character and integrity. what do they have on tap for next days
wsj.com/articles/to-serve-the-public-seek-profits-11602435735?mod=hp_opin_pos_2… forgive me for saying that marxism, big government isnt good for markets nor is taxing just the ones that make the most
"Night and day there are businessmen out there thinking of ways to feed us, to entertain us, to keep us (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sre9j1
Oct
13
Tweets-Oct/10/2020
October 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment
much discussio has takenpalce that after the election with bidne continuing to maxiize hsi lead at 31 percentage pts, the r willnever again be elected. the three new states , the end of the filibuster, have been mentioned, the widening of voting to felons and open borders
what not mentioend is that all the new bailouts create new voters beholden to big government, ,socialized activiity, , ith each new deal more become beholden.. the money spent on bailouts could have been spent by consuemrs on consump. future output will take big hit
https://listverse.com/2014/05/02/10-cruel-death-marches-from-modern-history/… add to this the steady drum beat of incresing government before electionthat now has market totallly in favor of d's and more socializationk, and higher taxes, and soaking the rich.
The d and obvilioysly hodlignitheir fire ad challenger mover to the center to garner votes, but harris and sanders havehungry lookds and like the french rev after they gain power, the chinese walls will break down.
Oct
9
And Now Back to Financial Markets
October 9, 2020 | Leave a Comment
The asymmetry of real vol is always amazing with sudden drops and then the steady grind upwards.
Oct
9
What Happened in 2018
October 9, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Big Al writes:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/money-and-elections-a-complicated-love-story/ Money is certainly strongly associated with political success. But, “I think where you have to change your thinking is that money causes winning,” said Richard Lau, professor of political science at Rutgers. “I think it’s more that winning attracts money.”
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
Did I miss the memo? Has there been an edict that particular facts are to be subsumed into coy academic attempts at irony?
There is one professor book that created the standard for electoral analysis and predictions: *The American Voter* by Angus Campbell, Philip Converse, Warren Miller, and Donald Stokes. They produced a detailed analysis of the 1952 and 1956 Presidential elections using what is still a wonderfully subtle methodology. Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Helmut Norpoth, William G. Jacoby and Herbert F. Weisberg took that work, applied the extraordinary advances in computing and computation since 1958 and revisited that work. *The American Voter Revisited* does the 2000 and 2004 elections. 1952 and 1956 elections. Professor Lau thinks he has invented a superior methodology; his proof is hat his model correctly predicted how 3 out of 4 voters in a mock election made the same choice that they would have made "under conditions of perfect information". Meanwhile, Professor Norpoth continues to stick his neck out and make a prediction every 4 years based on his primary turnout model. (For those who don't know it, he picks Trump.)
You can do better, Big Al.
Duncan Coker writes:
Since you brought up the 1952 and 1956 for those who don't remember Adlai Stephenson was the Democratic candidate against Eisenhower. It marked the start of televised and advertised campaigns. It also launched the start of a company called Simulmatics. They were the first to apply data and simulation to campaigns and politics, granted they were using punch card tech. Parsing data into groups like "white non-college educated, rural voter" or "women suburbanites" they were the first to use. Kennedy hired them in earnest to help him get elected. They did not predict elections so much as the issues that might turn elections and which side was best. For Kennedy they recommended expanding civil right issues, not hiding from being Catholic and more debates. They were not wrong but perhaps Kennedy would have done all thee things anyway. Today take the same process, but multiply the computing
speed by 1 million x. All in a very good book called If Then by Jill Lepore.
Oct
9
Tweets-Oct/8/2020
October 9, 2020 | Leave a Comment
ultimately the market will showrevulsion with the socailistagenda. the questio is whethert he revulsio beings overnnite or at 1 pm todya. alll the money spent on non-productivea ctivities willl eventualy haunt as in digginig adn filling holes in the desert
he market continues to act like it loves socialism
Oct
7
A Polling Anniversary
October 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment
ABC Clinton +12
CBS Clinton + 11
AP Clinton +13
Monmouth Clinton +12
Atlantic Clinton +12
USA Today Clinton +10
CNBC Clinton +10
Oct
7
Tweets-Oct/7/2020
October 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment
okay i do know much about racket sports. everal readers have given their take. but it's like faking a drop shot, and having your adversary rush to the net and then hitting him in the testiacles with a hard drive
i try not to tweet about things i am ignorant about but my ignorance is great. if some fencer can say what tripe intentions really is , the readers and I would reallly appreciate it
that John Normile many time national epee champion and market maven
nadi laments in his book that very few of the modern 20 th century fenncers actually use triple intentions any more. shout out to johoon normile who was nat. e[ee champpion who alerted me to this lapse in modernday fencning a nd markets
https://amazon.com/Fencing-Aldo-Nadi/dp/188452804X… triple intention is faking a move that yo ur opponent reacts to and then making your coutner move to his delivery
nadi on triple intention
chabce gardner should be on triple guard today. 1last tiime he killed market. as 2 he did yesterday with illl chosen naivewords. and 3 presumably mrk tokhim to the wood shed after 2
back to 3pm level tues except for 4% drop inlast hour. pres continues to fall behind by 24% from chall. bonds finally showing that Mises predicted with runawy inflation ultimately at new low again
amazing that of all that have come down from the vistorian age, the most resonant one is the series of comic operas by G and S. i find the same self dealing ,posturing in congress then as now. if you want to be ruler of the queens navy stay close to your cellar. wear mask
kudlow must have been in quaran pres must have acted without him. kudlow sayihg to himself " i told you so. dont go off on a limb. consult me first as you have in past. pres is his own man even though he know as little about sp as chance gardner does about economy.what a combo
amazing pres seems think he won debate, that the women dont see their abusve divorced husbands in him but now chall pretnds that he;s not a socialist ,that all his previous leanings were window dressings. lets see if most lib record in congress ms. harris can pull sme trick
surprise annouce was good for 1000 dow pts down in just 2 hours at low of 500 pm. lost in shuffle was cattle trader trying to cover up hier emails with accuation of russian collusion by opponent. no sympathy surge for pres. no matter what he does, its against him
incumb is feeling better but his bettigodds witih at keast 159mm wagered keep going against him. now 61% vs 25% against. even more worrisome is chances of repub senate at 64-36 against. the surprise announcemnet at 250 pn nust have taken Kudlow by surprise as in middle of da
Oct
7
Tweets-Oct/6/2020
October 7, 2020 | Leave a Comment
incumbent is bak in white house but his defecit in bettingi odds increses to 24 percentage pts. bonds at another 20 day lo at open
ignoramus running economy and politicking
Oct
6
Tweets-Oct/5/2020
October 6, 2020 | Leave a Comment
one improtant lesson to learn is to hae astoppping rule concerning an activity when there has been a run of good fotune rhather than a loss..e.g.. the idea of stoppping when youlve lost a thousand bucks at vegas is worse than stopping when youve made a thou.
there will be no moreo predictions forom this twitter for a while.
one of those days where every half hour price from 6 pm to present was withing 7 pts of open or preivous price. public has no rite to be insulated from loss so much as bacon would say.
this has to be tested as everything else.. i would say this applies to a series of trades with the same gravumen rather than to an individual disparate trade
bonds very quietly arabesking to a 20 day low at open
the wikipedia page on the french revolution iswritten from a woke perspective. no mantionwhatsoever aobut the reign of terror and the 10000 who were guillotine and loss of property. one of causes according to wiki was the deregulation of prices. the french revolution
to me is very relevant to today especially as a predictor of the increasing interventions and big government sure to come especiallyif the incumbent wins
17000 not 10000
a better summary then wiki on the reign of terror, the law of 22, the 50000 to 220000 that were killed
Oct
5
Tweets-Oct/3/2020
October 5, 2020 | Leave a Comment
amazing drop in pres. odds of winning . now 61% fro chall and 27% for incumb. a differential of 24 percentage pts verus 7 or 8 1 week ago, cattle trader somehow moves up to 2% . the reign of retribution willl come. whol will be the next robespierre. what does this foretell?
unsung major caus e of swings was bias of chris walllace against trump. so many areas he prevented biden from admitting no police force, let him off on hunter. . let hism call pres a lia and clown. reminds mf of the bias alll refere had against me when i won 10 natnls in row
Oct
5
Tweets-Oct/2/2020
October 5, 2020 | Leave a Comment
market has never been down more than 25 at 9 am on an employment analysis. it was bearishas of thur close. the tendency on the times it was down aroudn25 is for it to down to 910 then up. only 6 obseervations . on major pres. illnesses the market recovers after thefirst day . then by 5 days lat er iit's bak to the pre sickness news. the pres ods moved to 60% versus 35% for 'challanger. that should keep it down for the early hours
usually the m market knows about these events before it anouced. perhaps the declineat 210 on thur. was related to thsi announcement i see no other evidence of any front running
mr ag trader tweets that cpper knew before hand but stocks cratered at 12 35 am going down 1% , as far as u can see cper made a mmajormove up at 330 am. perhaps im mssiing some thing. i dont trade copperr-lack of liquidity. susan was first woman copper trader on floor
as marty riesman would say next five minutes from 915 to 920 am et arekey. danger of falllign to round number seems less liekly at 920 bulll frhm there
the glitter falls off at 945 acck=odriding tomy numbers willl we be visitign mr. sogi beofroe then>
mr sogi i lll have to leave you above 3353 you cant have breakfast alll day
mr. sogi it;s bee too log since i visitied you in your favorite adobe. i ;m sort of close to you and they say surfing is very good for keepihg healthy for those of age
Oct
5
Tweets-Oct/1/2020
October 5, 2020 | Leave a Comment
if ine had to guess for the rest oof the day, the market loves big government deciding how, andwho, and what to do do
perhaps more government in thenext half hour or so
Oct
1
Fact of the Week
October 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment
George Zachar writes:
The Manhattan Project guys were all (Jewish) immigrants too. Richard Feynman was a native New Yorker, who grew up in the Rockaways.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
Apologies for not including Feynman; my explanation is that he was a "junior" scientist. The complete list of scientists and engineers who worked on the thing runs into the thousands.
Dendi Suhubdy writes:
I’m worried that the Chinese government would win this artificial intelligence cold war to be honest. There are a lot of people who just devote their lives in China to annotate labels and also to code deep learning code in C++.
In Montreal there are probably 400 of us max. And I haven’t seen a precision guided missile using deep learning and simuated reinforcement learning whatsoever. You can simulate multiple times in a simulator that a missile can hit a target, given enough time and computational resources. You then transfer the learning e.g weights from that to the real missile and calibrate.
That would help the missile be guided by literally only a 180 wide angle camera even if it looses GPS capabilities.
The US isn’t innovating rapid enough. Never seen that in a SBIR announcement.
Oct
1
Some Comments on the Debate
October 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment
Archives
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- Older Archives
Resources & Links
- The Letters Prize
- Pre-2007 Victor Niederhoffer Posts
- Vic’s NYC Junto
- Reading List
- Programming in 60 Seconds
- The Objectivist Center
- Foundation for Economic Education
- Tigerchess
- Dick Sears' G.T. Index
- Pre-2007 Daily Speculations
- Laurel & Vics' Worldly Investor Articles