Sep

18

Another Indicator

September 18, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Duncan Coker writes: 

If you are an ESG investor you may want to move on from this post

Casting aside market morality, if one is looking for a proxy for election and Covid volatility with some leverage kicked in, look to prison REITs. Most are still down around 30% ytd. The sector plunged in March with the rest of the market, but has just stayed there. As background, the previous administration wanted to end the use of private prisons, but this was reversed

in 2017.  Private prisons still make up a fraction of overall prisons and some operate in a hybrid way with public guards and employees.  A democratic win in Nov would most most likely curtail the use of private prison.  Also Covid has been a big issue and the main reason for the declines.  The sector is despised by lenders, pension funds and big banks, so a contrarian play.  If things improve however, yields are double digit and an ethical case can be made that private prisons do a more humane job than public for prison administration. If you are truly against mass incarceration, which I am, then vote to end the WOD, ( but that is a longer post). CXW and GEO are two of the larger REITs. Both have announced dividend cuts.  As always the big question is how much bad news is priced in.  A spike in either direction would be a harbinger for election results or progress on Covid, and not necessarily mutually exclusive.

Kim Zussman writes: 

A bolshie sweep would combine prison and build the wall funds.  Quickly finish walling off the country but repurpose the direction: in only.

Sep

18

Tweets-Sep/17/2020

September 18, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Mr.. sogi now that you foud some big saves at Kona are you stopping for some good coffee. or will you be having the green tea instead

are the waves breakign well in Kona mr. sogi or willl you be waiting now for the evening surfing

Sep

18

Tweets-Sep/16/2020

September 18, 2020 | Leave a Comment

chance gardner decides to hedge so that his chances willl be chancier either way and it bak fires

moves that disturb your position the least disturb your oppoent ( the other sides ) the most

illl go out on a limb against the drift today and calll for down from the open

https://vox.com/switched-on-pop/21437085/beethoven-5th-symphony-elitist-classism-switched-on-pop not april fools

Sep

15

From Chinese Netizens

September 15, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Leo Jia writes: 

They teach us to be patriotic, to follow the leader to study communism, sing communist song, and swear by the communist sign.  But did you know, the author of communism was a German, the composer of the communist song was a French, and the creators of the communist sign were Russians?  Did you also know, while teaching us to be patriotic and communists, they deposit their huge amount of money in Switzerland, send their wives, lovers, and children to America, and buy houses in Canada and Australia?

Peter Ringel writes: 

Its good to be patriotic.

The dirty little switcheroo the China gov does (and similar regimes have also done in history) , is to link patriotism to communism and the party.

Obliviously China's culture is millennia older than Marx and his intellectually confused followers.

You hinted at the hypocrisy. Did you know that Marx traded and failed doing so ?  Growing up in the east-block and learning about this fact late - I got an erection :) ! Of course the bastard did .

Sep

15

Tweets-Sep/15/2020

September 15, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a very mixed day with a weak close considering the bullish enthusiam with which it started. bonds relativly stable and crude at 20 day low.

Sep

14

Armed Rebellion

September 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Russ Herrold writes: 

Our professor and others have had a point when they said the

> purpose of the 2nd Amendment was to support militias.* cough * ehh?   If there was a point it would be anti-historical

The federal and state gov'ts did not need an enabling amendment to do something which they could (and did) already do as a matter of simple statutory law (anticipating 14th amdt

incorporation)) The purpose of the Amendments (thought unnecessary, by and large, by Madison) was to _fence off_ from first the Fed'l,and later through incorporation, the states, certain actions,explicitly, for which underlying power were not explicitly granted anyway Simple farmers did not really trust an approach of statutory construction, of 'expresio unius, exclusios alterius', in Latin-ifying the concept.  The simple farmers said:  When you mean something, sate it directly, rather than relying on lawyer's word games US v. Miller's Progressive mindset at the US Supreme Court was clearly 'bad law' from the onset, but 'stare decisis' is tough to overcome.  It took Heller v. DC, and MacDonald v. Chicago to chip at that bad foundation

What they left out was the fact that owning a firearm was as much of a natural right as speech and property ownership.   The purpose of the 2nd Amendment was to remind Congress that, since militias were voluntary, men would have to be self-trained. This may be some modernist attribution of purpose, but again, this is anti-historical.The idea of Americans as individually spontaneously rebellious in the name of liberty is historical blinking.  Genuine rebellion in the U.S. has always been a matter of organized use of long guns and artillery barrels, not random murderous gestures with handguns. 

Not sure that it was not tried, albeit ineffectively.  The Whiskey Rebellion showed the futility of opposing set positions as an approach; the murder of veterans during the 'Thirty's Bonus March and encampment made it clear that set positions were a disaster.  The weaker or 'civilian' side are left with 4GW Readily reloadible handguns are a relatively recent innovation, really only coming into their in the post-Black Power, cartridge based era (Yes, yes, I understand that the .45 Long Colt started life as a B. P. cartridge, and was really stabilized in the M. 1911 with modern protellants)

The blood in the streets that the Rothschilds saw are an indicator will only have  come to the U.S. when Antifa or its opponents start using volley fire, ummm no, no 'volley fire' in the future.  Rather: 4GW tactics,really starting in the run-out of of Lexington and Concord,and continuing development thereafter on an ongoing basis. 

see:  With Fire and Sword: The Battle of Bunker Hill and the  Beginning of the American Revolution  Nelson, James L., Thomas Dunne Books Combine that with the emergence and development of formal sniper doctrine … see the Finns almost mechanical approach, and and the more dispairite reply of the Soviets in WW II …showed that MOUT operations on an opponent who is able to 'melt away' into a surrounding population Followup reading as to what US Civil War II may well look.like:

. The Dirty War, Martin Dillon — the IRA vs the brits

. Fry The Brain: The Art of Urban Sniping and its Role in Modern Guerrilla Warfare (n/a Book 1), John West  — from an analytic point of view of the sniper … from the TX Bell Tower shooter, a startling and 'eyes wide open're-examination of the LBJ assassination, and on to current Middle East theatre ** recommended **

. Red Sniper on the Eastern Front: The Memoirs of Joseph Pilyushin, by Joseph Pilyushin  (biographical notes)

. Sniper on the Eastern Front: The Memoirs of Sepp Allerberger,Knights Cross, by Albrecht Wacker (and from the German side — mnore formal, less effective)

. Jack Hinson's One-Man War, A Civil War Sniper McKenney, Tom, Brand (US Civil war …. somewhat light-weight)

.  Marine Sniper: 93 Confirmed Kills, by Charles Henderson (Carlos Hathcock, Viet Nam era) 

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

I never quarrel with RPH but a few clarifications.  The essay was about what the people at the time called "The War of the Rebellion" - what is now known as the Civil War, not the War of the Revolution.  That remains the only time U. S. Government authority has been successfully challenged, even temporarily,  by people taking up arms.  Volley fire was the standard tactic of both Southern and Northern armies throughout the Civil War because the limitations of muskets remained what they always were.  The awfulness of what happened to Pickett's men was caused by its use by the Union defenders who used the tactic first with cannon and then with canister and long guns at 300 yards.  Even in ambush the Revolutionary Army regulars were taught to use concentrated fire which was the French doctrine that Washington knew firsthand from its having been used so effectively in the annihilation of Braddock's army.  

The performance of the militia in the Revolutionary War was so notoriously bad that it was used as a tactic by the Americans, who would place the militia as the first line with the instructions that they could fire one volley and then skedaddle through the ranks of the regular army behind them.  This worked to perfection at Guilford Courthouse where the Brits ran and charged on horseback into a murderous concentration of fire because they thought they had broken the Americans and did not need to pause and fire their own volley.

The Second Amendment was adopted at the end of 1791 as a sop to the wounded pride of the state militias that had proven once again to be useless.   

https://ohiohistorycentral.org/w/Harmar%27s_Defeat

The U.S. would keep its regular army of volunteers AND the militias would be allowed to pretend that they were still the backbone of the American fighting spirit; and the obvious fact of life - people would keep and bear their own arms - would continue as before.

Sep

14

Tweets-Sep/14/2020

September 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a very mixed day with a weak close considering the bullish enthusiam with which it started. bonds relativly stable and crude at 20 day low.a very mixed day with a weak close considering the bullish enthusiam with which it started. bonds relativly stable and crude at 20 day low.

how are the waves out 100 feet mr. sogi. 

apologies again i';;; try to make it up ini the future 

Sep

14

Tweets-Sep/13/2020

September 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

the lack of triple intentions in modern fencing and i lament the lack of it in markets

at least let me introduce you to Aldo Nadi who some consider the greatest fencer ever,. https://youtube.com/watch?v=eygHpbYI6bs tiple intentions is faking a move then the opponent knwos you fake and prepares a defense and knowing that you prepare a thir dmove adjusted. nadi laments

years. alll quantitaively. thus i know all the regularities between markets of the past. but the problem is that the regularities dont continue. they're subject to ever chanigng cyces or multipe classifications or triple int.entions. who wins the over. unde I meant well

apologies. i wasnt expecting an up 25 opening. i ws expecting it to go up this much but after down.. now i have a predction down from 3348 basis december down until 5 am then up i dont put much validity to this prediction. i am an old man and have been trading for 60 

Sep

14

Tweets-Sep/12/2020

September 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

there are other articles in this 28 page paper including a 8 page halll of fame((9 such a paper is not known for being unfriendly to the busiesses it writes about

8..hers why indoor dining in the city migth not hapen any time soon..9. homeless advocates thereatend to sue over racist nimbyism(safety is its top priority but the residents   near the hotels that homeless have been movedd into compalin about drug acitivty and loitering 

4 smal business need a rent lifeline5. dinapoli outliens extreme budget s enrarious for city and state( the s tate and city are facing billion dollar gaps) 6. new yorks s borrowing conundrum(city deperate for money) 7. rate of workforce drug use hits 16 year high. 

interesting article in current issue of crains new york business 1. shark week produ on hook in bak rent as lawsuit says. 2. ambulance companies feel the pain( more amd moe patients are desirign to be trated at home3. melrose credit union sans while ceo 8 mm sght

for thsoe who interested. i will have a very important market predicition early sunday nite

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_N._Goetzmann

the woke proposals have a 44% captial gains rate and this would reduce economic activity like the lockdown and refusal to allow schools and restaurants to open so that non-woke will lose thereby garnering the attractive females

hte Palindome because their bearish views are to prevent others form competing for reproduction.. they refrain from noting the 50 00 fold a century drift in stock returns and the detrimental effect of increasing the service rate on capital gains to 44%from thh current 20% as s

it si said that Ohenry could win a challenge " give me any number of person and I will make a short story out of it> i often make the same challenge. give me any book or scientific study and I'll show you how it affect markets. Okay, y ou cant trust the bilois bills site or

foundation for al studies along with the triumpahl trio and loorie and Fisher. it turns out that he is also an expert on cowboy lit where I first came to notice him. i query him does he agree with me that Elmer Kelon write the best western including The Time it never rained

have eminent Mr. Smiith prepared to testify. please feel free to use my chambers wihtout asking. I felt the same way when William Goetzmann honored me by following. his work on the history of stock prices and money is vereminent and important providing a periodic table and

to round up and brand mavericks. it was also a good way to find a noose around neck. this post was inspired by a typial jury trial in the west where a circuti jude presided. when a eminent statesman entered the courtroom to testify the judge typically said " we are honored to

big cattle men occured after the civil way when they could brand all the stray cattle that had excaped from ranchers who werent able to keep them enclosed during the war. as soon as the fortunes were amde the cattle men banded together to make it illegal for new ranchers

how to explain why the bilioous billionaire are almost unifromly bearish and in favor of increasing service rates for the rest of humanity. a nice exmaple is contained in elmer kelton's thhrid book in the hewey calloway series, THe Smilng Country. most of the fortunes of

Male Dominance - an overview | ScienceDirect http://Topicswww.sciencedirect.com › topics › computer-science › mal… 

The term male dominance evolved in the twentieth century as a conceptual label to characterize the unequal power relations between men as a group and women as a group. 

Sep

11

Tweets-Sep/10/2020

September 11, 2020 | Leave a Comment

drunkenmiller forecasts that the next several years in stock market willlbe challenging. a mania that apparently didnt arabesque to his participation

same story woke hope amid refusal to score a nice comebak… challanger revulsion when social distance from teleprompter 

Sep

11

Tweets-Sep/9/2020

September 11, 2020 | Leave a Comment

wish i had never shorted or sliced

the djokovich disqual wa a woke thing and figurative speakig it set the base for wake up calll for those who dont lwish socialism

bovelllsays his is where suckers get long. i m a sucker by that definition and others

nce move of 3% up in sp from low of 3295 below constructal

first 10 day minimu yest 

first 10day max yest in sp for 5 1/2 month. icumb moves up to 9 percent deficit 

Sep

11

Tweets-Sep/8/2020

September 11, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a great contributer to our field and pioneer in applyign self taught statistics to actual market hassadly passed away the story of his contriubtions to value line is a heroic novel

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=wm&ogbl#inbox/FMfcgxwJXpMRdZJFLLnksvmwVCtMXdnG?projector=1&messagePartId=0.1 agreat contributer to our field and pioneer in applyign self taught statistics to actual market hassadly passed away the story of his contirubtions to value line is a heroic novel

staying power to finish treatment. so no wonder astra zenica and alll the others have not shown significance. they fave an impossible hurdle so the woke can be sure of no scucess until nov.

wheareas if the plavebo was 50% effective the standard error is 0.5, si it wlll need 2.5. times a s many observations too reach signifcance. say 100000 in the trial to have a chance at significance. of course its imppssible to get this many with no other disease and stayng

ssonofocantly bett erhtan the placeboll. that's almosot impossible to achieve with a placebo that creates recovery in say 90% of case. the standard error of a bonimial proprotion with a 95% prob is 0.2

inn addition to doing everythihg they can to sin pres.t dr. cattle's endless warniings and rule that tenant donthave to pay etc.,, the 95% THAT CONTIRUBUTED TO dems resorts to some suble sinking. i pt out that their tests of a succesfu vaccine is one that amongh thiings

reason it went down today was dq of djovovich. ready to go up now that woke can cry "correction"

They may believe that state governments and mayors political opposed to the president have in many places manipulated a public-health crisis for their own political ends: enforcing lockdowns that suppress economic activity in the hope of weakening the president’s support"from wsj

Sep

11

Tweets-Sep/7/2020

September 11, 2020 | Leave a Comment

if you look at shot that hit blm referee it was not an act of violence or anger but more like a little frustration and hitting the ball bak to ball boys. a cuomo set up to create unhappiness and miery beofre nov. as such it is bearish

of course if game had been in front of liveaudence no dq as 20000 fans would have protested. uforutnatley he was not a man of color and blm was refereeing

why is hitting a referee unintentionally a dq event. happened to referree when anderson hithard serve that hit line judge in head off a wall uintentional wy do rules protect the officials a not have anythign to do with sportsmanship.. same reason market down 2 dys ago 

only 1/4 the volume of a normal day today, if person of color had threatened tokilll linesman, she wouldnt have been dq.. same reason taht riots are called protests, and schools are being close is why djovoich dq.

an ugly rise. challlenger widens lead to 11 percentage pts verus 4. just three days ago.. djovovich falls victim to pc. as line judge weaing blm pin an.. whi is ridiculour rule noot based on intent. he his an easy frustrated shot that a non- pc person woulld have bloc 

Sep

11

Trailing Stops

September 11, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al Genubi writes: 

I would like some advice on trailing stops.  Lets say a guy took a trade, 3 down days, buy end of day, hold for expectation period of 1 day, sell half, set a trailing stop on balance.  Where?  low of day? break even? 20 period ema?  And how is best to move it up.  Low of day? Ema?  Fixed trailing?  I realize it is not efficient but selling at the expectation period would lose a run like last month from 3000 of 16%.   Things seem "trendy" now.  Appreciate any good ideas.  Can this kind of thing be tested?  I doubt it, because normal tests don't seem to catch trends as they tend to mean reversion.  Thanks.   

Sushil Rungta writes: 

I use a % trailing stop.  Usually, once I buy a stock, depending on the stock and the expected volatility, I place a trailing stop anywhere from 8% to 25%.  That way I do not lose any of the upside.  And the % trailing stop keeps moving higher if the stock keeps moving higher.

I am a novice and not meant to be advice.  Just shat=ring what I do

Ralph Vince writes: 

I think it depends on the particular market. For equities, I've found nothing worthwhile that constitutes a mechanical trend following methodology I would risk money on

I have a lot of experience looking for it though! Perhaps  a temporal solution is manifesting in the quities indexes right now, which will oly be evident at some future point in time?

Experience in the markets teaches us nothing, and I doubt it has any value whatsoever. If fact, there is a toxicity to it in that we begin to believe we know something that day one participants aren;t burdened with.

We are tasked with finding which of the 9 sections of the tic-tac-toe board a ball will (randomly) appear in. We choose the center. It comes up randomly in the NW corner. (It must like corners?). We choose the SW corner, it shows up in the NE corner. (see, it likes corners,) We select the SE corner. It comes up in the middle (Ah, two corners, then a middle…..) and on and on ad on. 

Forever.

"I have a good sense for where that ball will come up as I;ve been doing this for years." Or, better still, "I have a good sense of where that ball will come up - it;s mathematical! It;s somewhat deterministic," (as said the man walking into the convenience store to pony up for his next magic powerball number combination).

In markets, If you find something that works, and is working, it's about to evaporate. This is why I've migrated to longer and longer-term views on things, as it results in a longer time until things evaporate. Everything we think is true in the markets, is a delusion of our own making. Even the notion of drift: in equities, vanishes - first, for  decades or so, then, with the next fall of an empire. The probability of a drawdown, of any given magnitude, approaches certainty as the length of time given for it to transpire increases.

Most things in markets (as in all of life) that are real, often tend to be dull and tedious, require work to get our arms around,  and reside nowhere near where we are looking.

Ralph Vince writes: 

The point is everything we are looking at in terms of timing mechanism is ephemeral. I like longer-term models because they might outlive me (e.g. be long S&P500 when 90 day bills /  S&P500 div yield >1.8, which has batted 9 of 9 since 1980, below) before collapsing. The flipside is a much shorter-term model that will work, until it doesn't, then won't, until it does again!

I have never encountered anything in terms of equitisinexes that works in terms of trend-following, save for the notion of long-term, upwards drift. But as I say, once you are comfortable that something will always work, it is likely near-finished. The buy all dips / drift works in our favor mentality is not immune, but has had the good fortune of being a lugubrious beast.

Sep

11

Tweets-Sep/6/2020

September 11, 2020 | Leave a Comment

the sheep are vulnerable to coyotes

would this ruling bave benn any different if an outstanding womens player of fashion had let the racket slip on head

oxnews.com/politics/erin-perrine-the-atlantic-report-anonymous-sources with propaganda lie this against incumbent.. ny tiimes ( did they buy ebony/" report that his campaign paid his legal bills,ultimately coommon sense will prevail 

Mrs flagg to charliiiie in time it nver rained : mrs " you already fed the sheep " . charlie " " illl buy more :… doe s a man always have to have a wife that tries to rein him in"

nevr a penumbra

looks good

phil kerpen points out that deaths from covid are vastly overstated. colorado by 1/3 . mose than 50% of deaths are at nusing homes. number of deaths decreaisng to close to zero in many states. this info is suppressed

sys soti=uation to get worse. 7 tehn rise was due to hinese optiosn trade: the point is with overwel=helmingly negative coverage like this fromo teh 3 major media influences no wonder inumb defecit is increseing to 7% and rising versus 4% a week ago

billious headlines; trump loaded plane with art on return from paris.2. weimar republic 7 reasons why trum is worse: 3 hot to attack Trump so it hurts: 4 boats sinik in trump raly. manuchin says trump very peased with how it sgoing and wants skiny stimulus- powelll sa 

Sep

11

Tweets-Sep/5/2020

September 11, 2020 | Leave a Comment

youtube.com/watch?v=tbTaD2C08xU an auto da fe on Friday

in incumbent win ther will be war says the media. challlenger follows guidance of leading from behind of G and S ," stay Close to your desk and never go to sea, and you may be ruler —"ugly day for bond s finally succombing a stocks were getting killed and crude at new lo

what a day by 1030-1130 et, both sp and nasdaq were down 9% form their close two days earlier. then sp came bak thru the sogi number of 1450 at 3 30 pm only to fall 1 % in the last 30 minutes. the media is abuzz with acclaim for war if theincumbent 

Sep

10

Tweets-Sep/3/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

for a while. listen g to G and S

even with the 120 pts declie they wetn up 30 full pts in last half hour. never did that belfre especiallly befr emloyment. nlw spp at 3943 down 18.5. but wit an up last half hour , one finds a topsy tursvy worthy of g G and S. no predcition

a prrety keetle of fish. alll stock markets moved from all time hiighs to 6 day lows. bonds strangely olly up 1/4 still 5 fulll points from the high. crude periloulsy cloose to 4000 pres deficit in puling moves to 6% from 4% . stocks down a good 120 pts but but

fly in ointment today is crude at 30 day low 

Sep

10

Tweets-Sep/2/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

keys to game ? spf up 10 of last 11 days by at least 5. challanger back in his cellar. dollar moves from big low to 5 day high. crude from40 day hi to 5 day low. dc votes to remove franklin and other founders . the hate America gains while spf hits 8 of last 9 all time hi

corrections dow is at 29000. what are chances when it is at a 9, like 1000 away from a round nuber of 30000 that it will hit 28000 before 30000 

dow is at 2900 what are the chances when the dow is less than 100 awa;y from a round number like 3000 that it willl hit 2800 before 3000,.. a qu ery for Dr. bejan also for memorializatiion in his next book

if you send me your address on private meassage on twitter that will do m my email is vniderhoffer@ http://gmail.com an address to me in any fashion will requited with book. there was goo dinterest and work inthis contest. welll do ti again

ill put you on spec list and once you give me your names , (perhaps on spec list) ill send y ou a signed copyp of book.

because the re was quite a drift from 2011 there is chance that there is a slite difference .. several winners gotu the same answer of 4% by simulation or resampling. the winners were messr. doomlog, zhou , saad, silla, woladdon,f, Kuba,,pinony. nice work.congrats

what are chances that he would pick them out of hat in exact order of batting averages there are 24 permutations of batting orders . only 1 would be in order of lowest to highest.. that is 1 out of 24 ratio, it wouldn't matter if be picked the four out of 2,000, same ratio

suppse a baseballl manager of color had to pick a batting order. and he had 4 hitters of color . and he knew nothing but their batting averagers and that they alll didnt pan to kneel.the manager threw their batting averages in a hat and picked them out of hat

the least i can do is to send those with a correct answer to the 4 ascending prices problem a signed copy of education of a specualtor. as grandma moses said about her painting s "perhaps it will be worh a doollar some day" welll cut the entries off at 1 pm et

there are 2490 days of closing prices for sp sinc e beginnning of 2011. what are chances that if you pick 4 closing prices at random/ that they will be in ascending order? correct answer gets a free membership to spec list 

what are chances that challanger survives 60 days according to betting odds. about 95% as the next liekely challangers add up to 2% 

Sep

10

Tweets-Sep/1/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

good antidote for those who wish to tear down Jefferson and Washingotn memorial and who constantly bear

 http://dailyspeculations.com/Letter/songs%20of%20speculation.html#oldheart spare me from men who are old hearted experts

spare us from idiot learned intellectuals . technial analysts , dr. cattle, im;erial models, paul volker, the sage, the palindrome, Mqrx

the horse thief 's partner tried to spirit him way as he was swingng but his neck was broken anyway 

a very green day today making up for the 1 of last days that was not all time high 

dolllr at new low rel to euro should be good for sp to stay above constructal 

Sep

10

I am late (again) on delivering an historical essay on Panic/Depression of 1837-1842 to an electronic publisher so what better way to prevaricate than offer further political handicapping and personal confession.  First, the confession.  I have been utterly wrong in thinking that election prediction samples had to weight the survey data by Party ID.  That only corrupts the data and obscures the actual information.  If you weight voter file data by race, gender, education, income and age, your sample automatically and accurately calculates what the partisan split will be.
The grumps have become a persistent minority in samples.  The most reliable likely voter sample I have found on the question of "Who Do You Expect to Win?" shows Trump - 45%, Biden - 41% and 14% - "Undecided/Will Not Say".  1 out of 7 people who can be expected to vote do not want to offer an opinion about who they think will win - not who they want to win or who their neighbor wants to win but simply, who will win a 2-person race.  
These grumps are the loyalists to the newest political party - the voice of "unfavorable" opinion.  They don't like anyone - ever; and their opinion is entirely like Fred Silverman's  (who died this year - I put the link to his wikipedia entry at the bottom) brilliant analysis of programming - the winner is the show that sucks less.
The issues - and events - decide what the criterion will be for sucking.  Two months ago, it was Covid-19; and former Vice-President Biden received almost all the "unfavorables" votes.  Last month the issue was the economy; and Trump still sucked more but not quite so much.  This month the issue is "law and order"; and Biden is in trouble.  
The race is turning into a repeat of 2012.  You have an incumbent President with average "approval" ratings who is wildly popular with his base and hated by all the partisans of the opposing party.  Among black  and white liberal likely voters President Obama had near unanimous approval; and his voters turned out.  Trump gets 90% of his "base" of conservative/Republican/Republican-leaning voters.  Like Obama in 2012 Trump has all the money he needs and he has a thoroughly professional campaign organization that has had 4 years to prepare for getting out his vote.  (The black male turnout in 2012 is a record that will probably never be broken; mothers and grandmothers literally dragged their sons and grandsons to the polls to vote to re-elect their race's first President.)  For the people Mrs. Clinton named deplorables, this is one more time to make all those superior college and graduate school-educated voters reach for their hankies.  Those deplorables have made the educated Republicans wonder if they should join the rest of the credentialed and become Democrats, and some have; but their numbers have been replaced by middle-aged and older black men and Hispanic men and women who have no fear of people of their same age who wear MAGA hats.   What is proving decisive is the Democrats' loss of less than graduate-level educated suburban women; the promise of BLM rioters to bring violence to their neighborhoods has been devastating to Democrats' otherwise very good chances of picking up these voters.  It has certainly not helped with these women, most of whom work and have children, for Biden to mumble about keeping kids out of school and continuing the shut-down.  For every formerly respectable Republican family living in "good" half-acre plus zoned neighborhoods who hnow has a Black Lives Matter sign in their front yard, the Democrats have lost two middle-income less than full college households.  The exception has been government employment.  If the people in the household are school teachers/civil servants - i.e. the people still getting paid for not working, BLM is just another word for worker equality and social justice.  The problem for the Democrats is that too many of these people live and get paid in states whose electoral college votes the Trump campaign wrote off from the first day he was inaugurated.
Prediction:  Trump - 319 EV, Biden - 219 EV
Trump wins popular vote by 1-2 million votes.
One or both of two possible events could defeat those likely results:
1.  By October 15 the media succeeds in convincing Americans that there has been a "second wave" of Covid-19 deaths and the country faces a lethal pandemic that Trump has failed to deal with
2.  Trump's arrogance comes through in the debates and allows Joe Biden to be seen as a sympathetic person of adequate capacity to become President  - translation: "He is much less of an asshole"
If I am right, Trump will win the popular vote because balloting by mail will be much less feared/predicted.  Thanks to the shutdowns of colleges and universities, the student vote is likely to drop by 1 million.  A great deal of Hillary Clinton's popular vote victory came from literally running up the score in New York, Illinois and California; in those states, among women, Clinton had enormous popular enthusiasm.  Biden shows no comparable excitement this time; his margin of victory will be significantly less.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Silverman

Sep

10

This is interesting.

[obviously if accurate and Zero Hedge can be a bit iffy in that regard]

- doesn’t this smell like a modern version of Leeson, Sumitomo, Hunt Brothers etc, forcing a feedback loop to spin so fast it eventually gets out of control?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-day-after-zero-hedge-ft-unmasks-softbank-call-buying-nasdaq-whale

Sep

10

Tweets-Aug/31/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

better late than never. challe=anger lead to less than 5 per. can public be fooled as to late swing of challanger to anti- protest. chief strategist sanderssaid that " riots are normal. and they are fault of rich' you cant keep a constructal down

Sep

10

Tweets-Aug/30/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

nikkkei up 370 exerts bu llishinfluence on sp . overrid bear of 2 day befro.. i take loss

rep now favorite to win senate. 90% o f money bet lst 2 weekson incumb. now incum only7%behind. dems understand now that viollence beofre election is bad for them. will ave to concentrate on masks. a visit to ny shows like invasionof body snatcher never this up 2 days befr 

Sep

10

Tweets-Aug/29/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

monday 4-29 or wed 4 29 or thur 5-28 .. now the last day of motnth beu 2 days beofre end of month

what happens when stocks at a high from close of 2 days befr end of month like wed. 4-20 or mon 4 -29 six observations since 2019. very bad to open

Sep

10

Tweets-Aug/28/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

actua payments of Sevice was 5% on reported earnings. many experts on spec list have alerted to other sopisticated techniques . and not least is projecting a mien with urging higher service rates for himself espcialll compared to secreatry and others

article on the Sage on woke org maket watch. theytalk about valueof compounding. but leave out most imprtant part for Sage and former friend of mien.What can reduce the Sevicwe take . eg/ no dividends on comanie sage buys. Service rate on Berhisre itself. last time

query 1. tase of nov protests if icumb wins. query 2. who pays these "protesters"

nikkei verey down and exerts pernicious influence on rounds in sp

keys to game. dollar at low. round at 35000 just 5 away. incumb narrows lead to less than 10… cahllenger bike riding 2 weeks ago. five 20 day highs in row. bonds begnngn to creep back from low n ow up slitely

multivariate time series program invented by susan and me and run on the trs 80 since 1975. he did a great job and every encomia Mr. Eisenstat hurled at him has proven true. he had a good forehand in tennis also and played many a fine 1 against 2 with Prof Pennington as par

looking at expectations we find 16 of last 20 up is neutral to bull for next few days and 17 or last 20 up is slitely bear. we take this opportunitye to shouw out to Mr. Tom Downing. we hired hiim on Mr. Eisenstadts recommendation and he updated and coded our ogirinal

https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1298964525799137285 the bespoke scientists have an interesting chart which shows that the % of days u p in the sp is at a high. it gives us a chance to try a few scans. what is the expectation given that x out of last y moves are above a certain mag. we find e.g that

Sep

10

Tweets-Aug/27/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

interesting to see that challanger qualifiers add u up to 1.2% inchallanger team. both bloom and harris and clinton have 0.3 % chance in bertting pool.. apparently there is stilll 1 /40 chance that challanger doesnt run

a procustean bed on one hand bonds at 90 day low at 17527 abd 5 seoarate cobsecytuve 29 day highs in row. but stocks so near constructal number of 3500 

market making a monkeyout of me. half hour prices have susbumed over 1000pts or 3%of change so far. bonds at minimum bearish but stocks stopped at 3998 three times isnt cricket.. has to be sonstrucal number soon bit bonds bear

one believes that the face saving institution purveying,assuaging to the woke of chance gardner will hav a detrimental impact on stocks as bonds hit a 60 day low, the bond vigilantes coming back to guard against evilit s in the world

but one should always memorialize the Markman is one of most dynamic and excellent wrtiers and bosses that one has ever had ( allthough the number of bosses is 1 not to diminishhim

thatshouod be will constructal of 9400 inexorably attract stocks beof re bonds sink it. i remind oneself of idiot i used to work with at msm who alwys wrote is lucent a growth stock or a value stock?

keys to the game. will the final round counstructal sink the stocks beofre teh huge 80 day minimu in bonds exerts its perniciousincuence as money bet on pres at 45% chance of wining aproaches 11000% of last two wekk betting

and thus chance gardner an amiable ignorant well meaning woke succombs to the pressrue for diversity by sinking bonds

“Right now, this VIX warning signal is flashing again as it did earlier this year and prior to the (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srcjna

promise me that after destroying my books you willl never use mumbo jumbo charts and specious correspondences to 1987 and 2000 to make market predicitons and thaty 

Sep

10

Tweets-Aug/26/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

but if any of them seem to countenancee charting or trend following please destroy them

alll good things must come to an end and I bequeath my books to the spec list

going bak to 1996 i find only 4 occasions when such consistent bullishenss to 1230 after a few 20 day maximums

amazing come bak and move to be supressed by Lott. two ]weeks ago chall had a 24% lead with 78 million bet. now its 12 percentage pts lead with 86 million bet. more than 100% of the money bet the last tow weeks has been on incumb

hows the surfing in Hawaii mr. sogi?

market must make amends for giving public a break in eveniing by smashig them today in the am

its one of those days where the market ah made it impsosible for the public to lose more than their wont by being toppped out by institutions and top feeders with infinite cap;ital. the biggest move between halflhour prices over nitie was 1 fuoo sp point. they wiill have

coorrection maraket has set exactly one 20 day maxima on 250 occasions. and it's 60% to be up 2 days later. in accord with randomenss

the selfish market in its infinite machinations has set exactly three 20 day maxima in a row on 83 occasions since 2011 . it has set exactly one 20 day maxima on 546 occasisons . this would seem to be inordinatley less than randomness 

Sep

10

Tweets-Aug/25/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

three 20 day na=maxima ina row. if this a bear markrket for humans, give us another dose of it soon and sustained

Bloomberg FOLLOW US GET THE NEWSLETTER In describing this year’s stock market, observers have been big on (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srchoi

https://foxnews.com/politics what better indicia is tehre that dem governors wish to sink the eocnomy and create misery before election, the combarise governor is captured in a characteristic sinking pose

finally an antidote to fed buying unlimited spending for woke

bonds at 178.14

bonds begining to show signs that unlimited gov spending willl raise interest rates

Sep

10

Tweets-Aug/24/2020

September 10, 2020 | Leave a Comment

No mre wavese these: there were ravinies and undulations coming form alll the pharma. yes they pay our salaries but stilll we have to work toogether to sik the eocnoy"

" do we have one pereson who voted for prez among the 35000 empoyees. its mite be good to trophim out"

" it makes us look bad especiall after the orange man said we waanted to hide good events so that the wokewoudlwin"

heard at the fda// " how canw e suppriess all the good news abot the vaccines coming form the companiies when we wish to bury the economyespecialllly beofre the repub convention" its likea groud swell. first one then the other 

Sep

4

Go Make

September 4, 2020 | Leave a Comment

“The hubris of the defeated” “The game is flawed”

 A Beautiful Mind - "The Challenge" - A Game of Go

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmlSSSN7C78

Sep

4

Constructal Decline

September 4, 2020 | Leave a Comment

An aspect of the constructal theory that is less discussed on the list is that systems evolve to increase flow.
As the attached graph shows, volume on the S&P 500 (as reported in Yahoo Finance) has fallen all the way back to pre-covid levels, with a low point reached around August 14, no doubt to the detriment of exchange members and other top feeders.
Now there is a 100-point selloff. What better way to get people trading again on what otherwise might have been two very dull days heading into a holiday weekend?

Sep

4

Tweets-Aug/23/2020

September 4, 2020 | Leave a Comment

let us d=forget about dr. cattle and w=te wokes and the convention for a minute. the sp has already hit the constructal number of 34 00 and is overing 3 below it now presmmably all thekings horses cant keep it below for too long

the drs in deep state whodotn have to worry about jobs or pensiosn to a man have denigrated the blood plasme treatment as it not proved conclus

ively and best safety no yet conclusive.. soonn we can expect dr. cattle to do womething to help the cattle traderesits

[reseumably this s a reason to keep kids out of school. in any case the woes seems to be getting desperate and as their lead keeps decreasing we can only expect a despearte series of keech like cult ratiocinations and riiots in Octobler to stop that man 

hodl him resposnbillel for all the deaths and unemployment in the world. the times has a typcial example with a fort page busienss article saying the kids dont get very sisk but it is deadly for them neverthess. you see the native american did better when they had money stipnds

like reasons the cutl decries the rise. moves int eh grains every thru years as well as the moves in stocks and bonds and gold and the dollar decliihe come sto mind. i believe i see this with the challangers supprters . one day they tear up his messa, the next day theyl

every now and then a market keeps moving higher and higher (or the reverse lower and lower). with the bears coming up with oneunreasonablel reason to hope the market breaks after another. eventually the llast short fold has cards but it is interesitng to see the keech 

of course all the news is subsidiary and irrelevant but just provides a descriptive narrative to the selfish price.ethe selfish price isn 8 aways from another construal number and at yet another all time high. what are the chances that dr. cattle can hold the dyke 

when will fda learn that decisio makig udcner uncertainty which all market peoope make can be made in better ways than doubleblind . ad that during crises safety testing is secondary to potentiall llife savnig. imagine imarket people were to hold off on trading anythng

and the Pres is scheduled to announce a new cure and hope for alleviating virus at 6 pm. presumably dr. fauci will be rite there tl decry the lak f double blid and sav=fery results for it to debunk hope. when will the fdelern that people have a rite to their own life. 

much news today. pres continues to narrow lead of adversary to 55 % versus 42% makig for a 43% chance for pres with the figures showing massive last minute trends for the underdog as in racing. these betting figures also agree with odds shak. violence continues in Port 

Sep

4

Tweets-Aug/22/2020

September 4, 2020 | Leave a Comment

The prez has narrowed challanger's lead to 15 percentage pts in the betting odds from 24 percentage pts 2weeks. ago.since there was 78 milllion in the pool 2 weeks ago and 82 milllion now, iti means that 70% of the money bet in last 2weeks has been bet on pres.

Sep

4

Tweets-Aug/21/2020

September 4, 2020 | Leave a Comment

stocks at new high as they managage about 30% of all days since 2011. only questio is whether they willl hiit the constructal tqrger todqy to dwicomvbulte cqll optoion sellerws

teh story is thaat at the wigwam the day of the election a drunk always sane " marching thru georgia " but couldnt get thruthe frist line. he lapsed into somnolence. and nock said that the the drunks political sensibilities were the greatest and most appropriate he ever saw

like old man river wh enever stocks go down, bonds go up showign that the trendo mmm continues with full force

there was much hope from the bilios ones at 33 57 down 23 on day.. that hoppe has receded like nocks woebeoge at the wiigwam he began marchign to georgia but could never get thru the first verse before he lapsed into stupor. in any case the debates seem on 

Sep

4

Tweets-Aug/20/2020

September 4, 2020 | Leave a Comment

camp kinsella still an option for chancee gardner and at least willl near previosu chair and daughter of press secreatry there

" tail risk at a maxixmum" https://marketwatch.com/story/low-key-hedge-fund-star-scored-big-in-coronavirus-rout-and-now-says-stock-market-environment-presentslargest-set-of-tail-risks-weve-seen-in-15years-2020-08-20?mod=newsviewer_click " whare dods that debates will be canceled . well know tonite

heard as the heavily paneled lunch room at the Reserve. " i offered her half or what she asked for"

the traveling salesman has not asertained if the gas at 33 775 is worth a pass over

lets see if change gardner and his boys and the woke treas secretary can make restitution for yesterday especiallly seeing they donthave to assume the incumbent is necerrily sunk

i must confess that the extent of the move relieved me of some capital also

you have to hand it to the market . after 3 days of stasis where the half hour pries never exceededd 1 pt away from high to cloosel the makret dropped 150 big pts overnite thereby allowing and insuring that the public lost its riteful share to the big to the big top feeders

Sep

4

Tweets-Aug/19/2020

September 4, 2020 | Leave a Comment

congresswoman watanabe must have read the minutes and sold

https://twitter.com/kerpen?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor phil kerpen

absudity for school age children. phil perpen has death rate of kids of school age given that they tested pos for marketing virus. not one state has death rate above 0.00%.how pernicious is the desire to sink incumbent

as one plank in wokes is to make Fed take 3 rd plank for wokity , chances are that minutes will show strident independemce/ the constructal beckons 

who is the woman of Aisan descent who is extremely profitable in her trades and what is she doing now with the annnouncemnt which she and every other member of congress gets as they "meed to know" 

a non-bilious number. e sp has been at a 20 day high at the close 57 times and it hastn 107 times since 2020

the schoools and the lockdowns are related in other ways than bodh closed sink the incumb./ the schools have preparedte woke for marxism so they must continue to maintain their 95% chalegner bias 

Sep

4

Tweets-Aug/18/2020

September 4, 2020 | Leave a Comment

concerning the rise in wealth of the fabulous 12 billionaires the one thing that is relevant is that according to the betting odds it isonly 36% that (the incumbent willl lose and the senate will become democratic.) jointly) a lethargic day as stocks move to new hi along with

nobodyasked me but the market watch owned by dow is as bearish as thebillionaires data firm. they foudn1 analyst who was bearish and they featured him. nextt hye foud t i bearish because the rise recently has been gingerly. oly goneup 12 ot 14 days. there is much hand wriging

aall the billionaires perhaps 90% of them against incumbent who are going to be faced wtih a 45% capital gains versus current 20 % ardentntly espousing https://wsj.com/articles/the-bernie-sanders-moment-11597707984?mod=hp_opin_pos_1 anti enterprise agends

one of greatest regularaties is that individuals will act according to their eocnomic interests. alll the gov agencies 95% against incumbent. as Heather M says not one calling for a lockdown had to wrory about his or er job and pension. but its' amazing to see

a most unusual day with many new highs or almosts dollar at loow versus yen and euro never happned in alst 2 yrs wtih stocks up.. apparently likely turn to marxism greater in Us than Europe 

Sep

4

Tweets-Aug/17/2020

September 4, 2020 | Leave a Comment

i would add to the heroic words of Heather that the urge to trade is as instinctual for humans as the urge for sex and music. any prevention of trade takes away muihc of human happiness as well as the ability to imrpove oneself and the trading partner

a 1 pt ramge as of every half hour. truly a test for public to be stopped out and contibute there emolument rto the high frequency and banks with unlimited capital

this isnt cricket. the range in sp over nite was only 11 pts. from 3376 to 3365,. no chance for top feeders to relieve pbulic of their riteful contibution to the infrastructure; a, empty bag for the europpeans versus public 

Sep

3

Mostly F’s

September 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Thanks for the comments and ideas on REITs.  I bought a basket of 10 today
under the premise that stocks down by 50% with good free cashflow, with the
ability to borrow far below lease yields, should come back. Areas like
healthcare, storage and re-purposing seem sustainable.  Amusingly the discount
broker I have been using for decades added a new rating system using classroom
grades - which I did not know about until after the purchases.  Of ten buys I
made, they graded me almost entirely with F's with a few C's.

Sep

3

Experts Never Fail

September 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Dr. Zacek writes: 

The population density in Sweden is 25 per Km2 (64 people per mi2).

New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile.Just saying.   

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

That is why they need absolute authority.

Peter Grieve writes: 

Stockholm was doing fairly well, last time I heard. Also just sayin'.

Sep

3

Tweets-Aug/16/2020

September 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

correction. in my view there willl be riots if incumbent wins not challanger. the michael cohen book is very unfav. to incumbent not challanger. i got it alll wrong in my post

incombent reduced lead of challanger by 4% pts to 56% to 40% against. chances of fell swooop in october and posibillity of more riots if challanger win. new book by Michael Cohen very unfavorable to chall. market ins 5 pts range in alst 2 days. ready for explosion 

Sep

3

Tweets-Aug/14/2020

September 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

.p.p on a friday

draw decllined

an orgy of hope for a fall as sp for first day doesnt threaten all time high yet. vpp challanger is taken by ws as ideal because her socialism doesnt extend to confication of provate property that is woke

sp down 8 at open. pay checks coming mon.. you cant have breakdast alll day

a day unlike the others. bonds were down 5 days in row covering 4 pts . now they're upa feeble 1/2 . incubment cuts lead of challengare to 18 per pts in betting odds from recent 23. everythings not at high. nikkei and dax down a feeble %. crude 1/2 away from hi. gold -16 

Sep

3

Tweets-Aug/13/2020

September 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a hard fought draw with a dynamic finish.

and yet the market according to waj loves her as she not hard on siliicon valley et alhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/marsha-blackburn-biden-harris-radical-left-ticket the bilious billionaires

as an indicatio of drift note, that as of 1 pm since 2011 the marketha been at a 20 day high at 1 pm et 548 . and its hasnt at 1928 tiems. that's 28% of time. so dont woke me about how bear things are. but 4 of them were like yest and today. nothing special

lets see if they can fool me the same way they did yest from 11000 to 2 pm et .. no way will they get me twice the way they did yesterday

thank goodness that sage hired two market pickers who paid for lunch with him.( was his wife stilll working at the bar or did she attend also)) the two must have tauught him to admire , understand apple. or did he learn it from on line bridge games with the agrarian founder

the two things i learned from Palindrom after 15 years of very continus and intimate conact were 1. to always use two cans of tennis ballls, and 2.. never to admit to having a profit in anything. 3. a thrid thing ive picked up is never let anyone know what your positionis

they shouldnt be trading markets as they both hate technoloy. buffett admits he ddoesnt know hwot o use ty pewriter or somue such and palindrome says he's retiring from markets because his book of 20 years ago gave away his secrets

furthermore if y ou test the indicator it turns out to be predicitive of just the opposite. it goes against growth and productivty , applied to nasdaq by extension what would it say. buffett and Palindrome both admit

heres the typical piece of a cult what kind ? keech, woke? bearomoter?

when you review it the marekt watch article that buffetts favorite indicatoor is flashing a selll signal is propoganda of the worst kind. buffet didny sayanyting aobut. it. buffet didnt test it. with propaganda bear likethis,, the move to constructal next is much easier

But to care about the economy is to care about human life, since economy is how life is sustained. It is a source of meaning, as well as sustenance, binding humans to each other in web of voluntary exchange. To its workers, every bus is essntial, and to many customers as well.

the tobin indicator sp / gnp is mumbo jumbo if tested would havebeen bearish during the stock markets 50000 fold a cetury rise. the wsj reports that buffet would be very bearish but doesnt indicate that buffett said aything about it rcntl it would lead him to bellly up

the wsj received a letter from hundreds of its staffers complain that they are not more woke. everynow and then apprntly this group seizes control and biases wsj so that economic transactions jobs and what we buy becomes secondary to woke adn theyre like the bilious blom site

wsj has one bearish article saying that incumbent did it and free markets are the problem and problem is that gov doesnt control everything and buffett would be very bearish and vp dem is ve

market has a very smalll range of 1 or 3 pts each interval today so it musut have a big day in store for us as the pubic has no right to lose so little 

Sep

3

Tweets-Aug/12/2020

September 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

thye fooled me twice today. after the open and the close. made one feel very amateurish. and yet…. deception is payr for the course.

market is ineluctable and trie dto fool longs at close thereby owing a good finish to constructall number. challenger keeps incresing lead so proetests if incumbent lwins will ot hapen . and marketing dept of virus will close

a double bounce that wasnt crricket. but the couse of a conststructal must be deceiving

that decline wasnt cricket

mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=wm&ogbl#inbox hte acorn doesnt falll far–

one cant resist on the move to next constructal to note that dr. cattle was guaranteed to say russian vaccine no good. it wasnt invented here and it wont derail the economy for the new catte trader and sanders accolyte

one sets sites on the next constructal number of 3400 sp

marekts only done this twice in last 10 years with bonds bonwn down and sp up at open and up today but down close to close yesterday. a very unhealthy situation except it provides an antidote to marxism

finallly some antidote to the government spending for non-productive activyt.. the bonds go way don. the quantity theory of money rises from 1000 years ago. production is down. money is up. prices must go up. mv = pt

query> the stock market dropped almost 2% beteen 3 pm and 4pm et. yesterday in conjunction with chaanger's selectioon of vp. did it go down because his vp was good for his chances or bad? i.e is the market now in a situation where everything Trump is bear or bull?

bonds at big minimum at least 40 day.. challanger lead in race expands to 20 percantage points. stock market seems to like new vp of challanger. seems li e the kind that like the cattle trader would short cattle when she says she bought it because she was bull 

Sep

3

Tweets-Aug/11/2020

September 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

dollar making a big recovery

;perhas the end of the marxism meme for a while

a most unusual day with bonds refusing to go up wh en stocks go down and gold down 100 and incumbent lessening his loss in polls.. has the scent of a new regivem

stocksw ay up and b onds way down at 910 not so fgood for spf

marketing dept of the virus in us very upset by the possibillity of reduction of morbidity. amazing that any coutnry can develop a vaccine that beats palceby with its 90% efficay . high standard error. imagine dr. cattle decrying it.

The Russians develop a vaccine theyre ready to roll out and all meia and woke ignore and decry it unntil after the election as it mite give hope

strangely not bearish at all at 8 am with bond down big and stocks up big at 8 am

one notes that the inciumbent is improving his odds in the betting markets to 18 % below challanger and improvies by 4% in battle ground states.

Sep

3

Tweets-Aug/10/2020

September 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

market where there is so much " hoping it along " from the bear side and woke side.

all their bearish hope is that " children are getting sick: and the stock market after a 105 decline in november could go up its usual 15 % a year under the challlanger as his increased attention to the environment creates more profits for companies. i have never seen a

it is pathetic to see the twisitng and extensiosn of the bear wokes trying to find somehting bearish. we've gone u p 7 days in a row . eisenstat has shown that the higher a rise in the sp, the more bullsihfor the rest of year . all the bilious billlionarise can come up

Mr. goldcam pts out on spec list that if challenger wins ,with his doubling of capital gains service his mantra and trillions for reduction of pollution, there would liekly be a heavy selllig in November to take advantae ofthereduced 50 % rate now.

a good article that examines all aspects of striving for dominance especiaoy suppressing the reprodcutvei success of competitior ( by insuring they pay high service rates) is here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominance_hierarchy 

Sep

3

Tweets-Aug/9/2020

September 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

of the american checker foundation is on the spec list and i herdeby ask him to have one of the good p layers answer thshs this ridciulous fallacy

witiing on the walll. thas enuf . i cry for all the time i spent with wiswell and his suden decline at 85. but one t hing for sure, i must or a good checker player must debunk the absurd fallacy the " he plays chess the simpleton plays checkers. alan Millhone the venerable prez

4. In order to win you must have plentry of confidence and thats fine unles it becomes conceit/ 5. i have often been asked w hy i always play 11-15m abd u reokt : that;s where the wins are" 6. a good player sees the handwriting onf the walll'' before there is any hand

1. it is a lot easier to stay out of a trap than it is to draw the losss…. so beware.2. if you want to be certain of your position- you mist begin by doubting it. 3 checejrs nust be learned and releaned over and over. that;s what hoolds us, often for a life time

years , tom wrote a book for me with 8000 proverbs about checkers, life and markets a lll triple entendres. in his honor i willl memorialize a few of them not in my book .

during my 6 day removal from the real world as no power and internet and car and phone, I fortunatley was able to find a god checker program and I masatered the single corner and cross and ayersh9ire lassie from red. in the honor of tom wiswell, w taught me for 25market watch is aoways bearish and could have been edited by the biloious billlionaires and the biolionaire data provided

how did the woke at wsj get a crapolla araticle with ludicrously low samples on their healdine page when the weekend wsj had a scholarly and comprehensei artilce on { why ists9mostly safe to repon the schools. one wonders why Market watch owned by the wsj is so consistelty

have been wouthoutphiil kepen for 6 days a s a zomby . i have no car or telephone) but power wa out, but he points out that the receent wsj article onf transmission by the very young is crapola and one wonder how the 200 reported for the wsj who signed a woke wanting letter

way the sp now thats its a new highs? well have to study on that and be bak when quatitative analysis works

The dr. cattlle refuses to be supppressed in my absence and subtly works for the cattle trader and her illk the latest becinse devern distrust the public health authorities, Heather Mconalld and commonse sense show the wrongness of ths. the question emerges which

lthe woke efforts in total replace productive work, create a grip fro socilallism, reduce happiness, creat misery , and reduce individual effor.. sets a terrible base for the future. but as said, this will turn when the challanger wins

school opening. this despite the incessant clamor, shalll we say charivari or rough nosie for dumping the economy and stock market before the election. One notes the dollar contirnuing it decline which is the main impact of the turn to socialism engendered in the bailouts

was the surge in sp up 6 days in a row caue of the imrpovement or a result?One also notes that the clear evidecne that kids of school age have less than 1 in million chance of morbitiy from the virus or a negigal chance of transmitting it has caused some movement on

one has been without communicatioon in or out durignthe past week dueto a tornado and 5 days wihtout power in Conn.the main thing i noticed when i bak is that the pres odds on the incumbent have 8=improved. it was 23 percentage points against him 1 week ago now 19 pts.

Sep

3

Tweets-Aug/4/2020

September 3, 2020 | Leave a Comment

crude joins the pantheon of new highs as sp plays peei a boo with constructal number

the bak drop with dollar near lows and bonds near highs provides a nice base to offset further woke activity which will continiue to sink incumbent which according to my theory is not negative to say the least. but one should sleep with one eye open in case of coup de grace

Sep

1

Betting Average

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

If the prices are"stupid", it may be because they are beginning to discount what they are after you stop cheating in the weighting and sampling.
The issue is just that a bunch of europunters having a go at US
elections may provide little useful information.

Sep

1

And yet

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

The query is what will happen if  incumb win.s massive rioting in nov.

P3losi DUIs and fires her dentures through the windshield, Schifty quits his thyroid meds, and Sleepy Joe shuffles off to one of Cuomo's covid homes.  And masks come off and @ntifa soyboys get to cohabitate prisons with real big men 

Sep

1

Tweets-Aug/3/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

you have to hand it to challenger. he refuses to endorse aoc thereby showing the facade of moderation in the face of woke agenda cubed.. he has good guidance and the drumbeat to keep him like the kurowa generals who pretend to be alive when they are not, begins to carry steam

thus as incumbent keeps getting less likely to win as he does every day, the market goes up because of likely harmouny after the election

my theoroy as to why the market is going up is that in the event that the incumben wins there will be massive protests and violence uncheked and encouraged as in the past. if challanger wins, the marketing dept of the virus will go into hibernation and lockdownw willl stop

keys to the game. will the spp threaten the round number and first day of month a or willl it be deterred by the incredible run of upnes especiallly in afternooon

many somersaults except for s p. 

guaranteed to happpen: 1. DRumbeat for chalanger not to debate incum begin: 2. Pelosi says only one she trusts on virus is dr. cattle. 3 restaurnts in cal. ban dishes with flames. why? a very sagacious dr. who was victim eexplains " they want to killl as much joy as possble 

Sep

1

Tweets-Aug/1/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a very green day except the yen and euro set highs on thur, and bonds only tured into the gree at the close. No signals on transport to Australia for certain " learned ignoramuses "

Sep

1

Tweets-July/31/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

the market throwing everything at us for the last day of month with nas up and sp down and nikkei very unhappy. drl cattle to testify among woke friends. incumbent trying hail mary throws with defense very alert. fortunate mr. moss kindly let one out at a 50 from below and abv

strange divergences with europe asia not necessariy in us favor

Sep

1

Tweets-July/30/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Hello mr. sogi . Your never fully dressed without a 50 . when willl it come?

mr. m, im afraid illl hve to let you go 

" hes in better shape than most people half his age" be a shoe in to survive tranportation 

there is something rather heroci and at once pathetic with wchih the bears tried to breakthe round number of 32000 and the goggles of Dr. cattle and alll the hoped for woke news . almost an orgasm with the called for 40% decline in gnp 

seens like the last desperate gasp of the bears as of the close

Sep

1

Tweets-July/29/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

https://sparknotes.com/lit/montecristo/character/danglars/ Judas, Uriah

a stream. gun sales, marxism, debaes canceled, deplorables, mr. jones, marxism, radical wing, empty suit, more taxes, progressive wing, schools opened, october surprise,

the greenies have returned to their hootch and are prepared for ambush

Sep

1

Tweets-July/27/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

as soon as nov is over, hydro, and mortality and sports, apple pie, protests, will be in harmony. perhaps why the market remains so strong. on the other hand if the one in a million happens and the incumbent wins, rampant destruction and violence can be antici[ated

it is becomoig increasingly cler that whatever will create misery, unhappiness, anxiety,uncertaity , suffering will be hyed by the pressies to sink economy and Prez. one fears for the coup de grace in Oct as all the billiionaire money is deployed. that's the good news to me

you have to admire dr. cattle feigned humility. "im just going to continue doing my job" when or in what literature besides Dickens has there been one more effective in bringing down his boss?

opposed to hydro chloro–, even though many dr.s hav use it effectvely as an early treratment. . as mentioend the placebo is so effective in preventing mortality that it ialmost impossible to do a double blind on an alternate that is statisi stig stand errr of o.90 x 0.10 etc

certan disturbing info comes down pike about dr. cattle other than his life long love letter to Miss. cattle. 1 he has a baseball card memorilizing his perfect thwo,. 2 he owas the patent for a vaccine- dengue. 3. he wrote a letter praising Governor Cuomo, 4.he is adamantly

everything stillll near a high euro , yen , bonds, curde gold. perhaps a gravitational move hiigher for sp now that Jay chance has seen that he could permanently alienate all his non-work support

a wild close to put chance on guard tomorrow

Sep

1

Tweets-July/27/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

the greenies are in control alll around

Sep

1

Tweets-July/26/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

"i m not a hero. i m just doing my job" dr cattle

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/history/ perhaps one way to crystallize is to look at Nas from beginning of year. its up 13% but now at a 15 day low , just 2 % above the June month end close. this can be tested

a steady diet of bearish fears greets one over the weekend with 1. fang stocks concentrate rise.2 more day traders. 3 stocks bonds and commodities all up.4 nas at new 20 day lows. 5 stocks down 2 days in row. 6etc. one queries have you tested any of them?

Sep

1

Tweets-July/24/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

more suffering is the goal of the woke . and the keynsian from the white shoe firm negotiates by suggesting half a loaf of suffering. more flailing around from the incumbent party . the sp will continue to set new highs. its topsy turvy

Sep

1

Tweets-July/22/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

a ru n of 3 greenies on a special operation with Tesla providing a vividconstructal barrier undil bonds set yeto one more all time high

dr. cattle to throw first pitch of first baseeball game. out of 18000 of 18000 tests inly 1 came bak to marketing dept of virus. no sickensses. the american game starting despite what must be woke efforts to derail and denigrate it. very buoo 

a friend writes that ny is dirty and boarded up and many busiesses have given up. one wonders i f this is anifestation of sink pres woke and holding out for alms and general failure to create unbroken windows in effort to spawn protests and marxism 

anything to hurt economy and beseech gov for funds . what a marketing dept the virus has. good news is that it will all be over in Nov when challanger wins. perhaps that's why market at new highs 

your own man , the captain says you were out. flailing aoub t when losing a game onlyy works one in a million. djokavich versus federer as he tried a desperate forechast at match point against him like pres bettint us to wear face maks 

school kids dont vote so they bear the brunt of woke attempts to close schools. now even the educators are trying to keep schools closed as bonds set new highs 

Sep

1

Tweets-July/23/2020

September 1, 2020 | Leave a Comment

54 minutes ago"There has been no recorded case of a teacher catching the coronavirus from a pupil anywhere in the world." today's Times of London.

prediction of the day. some pressie will compliment dr. cattle on his delievery and accuracy and resilience and forttue in throwing out first pitch of baseballl seson.

a typical statsitic form phil kerpen .of 2 million school age kids in sWWEEDEN WITH NO CLOOSING OF SCHOOLLS NOT ONE DEATH OR SERIOUS CAE. but, but they have b=ni reasin to sink pres. or unions to prevent kids beingeducated

dr. cattle thrwowinf thentowqrds Miss cattle on the left without adjustment

one of most astute traders i've encountedf in my 60 years of trading, mr. watsurf poses a intriguing question " where would the market have been without the virus:" 

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