everythings bak to preceding bulll china exerted a temp decline but hoiday cheer should trump it

i realize that i could have been more helpful in the evening. I got blindsided by the chinese response and fellt there could be a further decline below 2930 and i cant stay awake a few days in row any more. it did decline to 2904 but i got them bak and it rite this morn

all the quants , quasi docs , statistcians on spec list are ask " where is the evidence that locikdowns worked? they site numerous xmples that it didnt work. . mr. vince adds that itsure worked in ruinng the economy. i add to that " what does that have to do with stock

Mr. karpen is a veritable cornucopia of balllast against the idea ths hs world in grip (cont)

i go bak to my post about the food suply and reproduction in rabbits adjusting to the rainfall. the rabbits are abundant before good grass. the cattle traders in the world are not fit in this world and have to suffer the price in abundance wherever they are led by

whevever the cattle traders are led by or believe in idea that has world in its grip, they and especially their children suffer in abundance and productivity

once more into the breech



another trick shot of ephemall nautre by the bears destined to pay the penalty for such a bold and nopeless dodge

the ephemera l decline continues to the morning hours. it may not berefuted for a day or two. it looks like too hasty ac all bby me. have to get them later



The constructal number , the bane of those who hold the idea that has the word in its grip beckons

a fine player knows never to see a trap for his opponent. a drop shot is always a loser .. a good board player uses strategy not tactic . he never expects a goo d oponent to amke a mistake. when he sets a trap for oppoonent he might as well resign.

in that context the ip at yesterdays close can be seen as a futuile attempt by mr. market and those who hope for further destruction and bear to set a loosing trapp fro which they are paying dearlyll today and the future for

a rather timid 50 pt rise. but one doesnt look a gift horse in the mouth

a 20 day high yet again but without a final crescendo. a waiting move 



on the spec list larry and i are sharing divergent views for the first time since we came out together in Tokyo so that we would be more in the mainstream. he is using theadvance delince which is not part of the golden machine that he positied for stocks to make money for

stoocks make money for public by giving them the oportunitey to buy them for profits especially in times of uncertainty and to take account of the drift.. but he is against the golden machine rite now and I am with it

very narrow 10 pt range from 930 open.. how can public make more thanusual contribution

they had a nice 50 pt decliine from 239 pm et to tehcoose very deceitful and masterful

fireworks like end of a chess game where both players are runing out of time. reminds me of the duke north car basket game where duke was behind 10 pts with 90 sec to go. duke won in second overtime afteshanking a foul shot with 1 sec,to go , scoring on jump to ti in reg



Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

Although mechanistic studies support the potential effect of hand hygiene or face masks, evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza. We similarly found limited evidence on the effectiveness of improved hygiene and environmental cleaning. We identified several major knowledge gaps requiring further research, most fundamentally an improved characterization of the modes of person-to-person transmission.  

Jeffrey Hirsch   writes: 

Wow! So then what was responsible for flattening the curves or slowing the spread? Nothing? Time?

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

JH: The answers that the mask and shield-wearing medico who earns here daily bread by examining and diagnosing people at non-social distances offers are these: (1) no one knows exactly how viral infections "spread", (2) no one knows how or why they grow and then decline among populations, (3) people with poor health suffer more than people with good health, but, as with lung cancer and heart disease (to take the 2 most common examples), some people escape the likely consequences of their bad profiles and others who should be fine sicken and die, (4) exchanging the air and scrubbing it with filters AND requiring both patients and medical personnel, including office workers, offers the best odds of reducing general risks of infection because it increases the oxygen levels and reduces the "carbon" levels and that, in almost all situations, helps us human air-handling machines.  But the masks need to be changed almost as frequently as surgical gloves to be effective; wearing the same mask for hours at a stretch has zero likelihood of restricting any kind of airborne infection and is guaranteed to have the same kinds of adverse consequences that people get from not changing their water filters within the time limits of their functional capacities.  

What she and her Dad think was and is monumentally stupid is to have shut down and continued to reduce  access to doctors and medical treatment in the name of keeping emergency rooms free. That is what we have decided to call General Staff thinking of the first order - the same kind that discouraged the development of automatic weapons for soldiers on the grounds that they would "waste" the ammunition.

Henry Gifford writes: 

Part 4, about “exchanging” the air and scrubbing it with filters and increasing Oxygen levels and decreasing “Carbon” levels sounds flawed to me.

Most modern commercial buildings in North America, including office buildings and hospitals, typically have systems that gather air from many rooms and put it into a common tube (“duct”) from where it goes through a filter and then a fan and then something to heat or cool the air, and maybe mix in a small % of outdoor air, then return it to all the rooms the air was removed from. Described another way, any airborne viruses in one room will be distributed to all the rooms served by that system, with a small % sent outdoors. Just how many people get sick this way is something that is politically incorrect to discuss or research in the buildings or building design industries, as these systems are the most expensive and profitable to design and install.

Even the fanciest filters have only a small chance of trapping something as small as a virus. People’s respiratory systems expel viruses coated with some water and other materials, in droplets of widely varying sizes, some of which fancier filters can catch, many of which even the best filters will unlikely catch. And retrofitting the fancy filters requires greatly increasing the size of the fan and the motor and the wires that supply electricity to the fan, which almost never happens. A normal air filter is there mainly to keep the equipment free from clogging by relatively large dust particles.

As for adding Oxygen and removing “Carbon,” (Carbon Dioxide exhaled by people), normal leaks in a building provide sufficient Oxygen replacement and Carbon Dioxide removal. Actual ventilation is beneficial for other reasons, but is not necessary for adding Oxygen or (generally) removing Carbon Dioxide. Submarines in WW2 had zero ventilation when submerged, yet running out of Oxygen was never a problem – poisoning with Carbon Dioxide was a problem long before Oxygen deprivation. Absorbent chemicals were used to absorb Carbon Dioxide. Some research in modern buildings has advocated higher ventilation rates as a result of supposedly finding correlation between higher Carbon Dioxide levels (>1,000 PPM) and lower worker performance, but I haven’t heard any talk about adverse health implications at Carbon Dioxide levels found in buildings.

Systems do exist that provide 100% outdoor air to buildings of any type and size, but these systems use very little energy and save space and are quieter, but are inexpensive and simple to design and install and maintain, thus they are not very popular. Even with all the talk about ventilation now, nobody seems to distinguish between “exchanging” used air or new outdoor air – not even a part of the conversation so far.



As a child

August 14, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Alan Millhone writes: 

We all played Checkers on those awful red and black boards , so most consider a child's game as you simply move the pieces with reckless abandon. 

Chess looked daunting with the different pieces moving in different directions. 

Thus the difference in perception as to both games perceived levels of difficulty. 

Victor Niederhoffer  writes: 

binay  numbers  like checkers moving forward and backwards 1 square can creae a computer or all electronic logic circuits. that's the way computers  do  comutation.   leads to extremely complicated situations.  the  lessons from binary  moves are more important than contrived moved of chess on an old fashioned war games board. . all good checker players can lay 8 games blindfolded simulatneiosu like pillsbury. etc



CCP overplayed their hand and whatever advantage obtained by virus release is in the process of being (cont)

sp is in the catbird seat with bonds near alow crude up 400% for the 16 th day up in row … how about a little deception before stock move to new high

if ony they can keep dr. rasputin in the closet

may i make a humble suggestion>> when the vaccine is ready. let us prioitize not only health care workers but memebers of the cdc who have devoted so much effort to inform us of the risks and models

if an objective measure of the compassion and sensibility of those prioritize is appropriate , let us examine now only how much they contributed to blue politicians but especaiillly how their spouses and children contributed

of course the moderna results have a millio gaps and randoms in them doubtless someelse will trump their baby . but of course that has noth9ing to do with why the market should be up.. its been a long time between highs

and more improtant its becoming incrweasinglyh obious to peoppel who ivest that the lockdowns , the beseeching for handouts is a instantiation of the idea that has the worod in its grip. the pandemic would have been di rigeur without the agrarins using it to trump trump

illl have another old fashined. bonds finally reacting

the deception was a possum. waited and waited and finally got away fast

a little thanatopsis

market stilll has some bounce in it. a nice 6- day high to establsh a foudation. tomorrow could try a oittle terrible decline at times

thats a 60 day high



there have been many crises that have hiit Americans in last 150 years. Ordinarily the country a nd economy bounces back to new highs/ and thus enables the 10% a year drift in sp. but now its clear that a whole swath of the pop ( call them agrarians or displaced

those who believe in the idea that has the world in its grip, i.e. self interest inad indiviualistm must be eradicated will do anything to prevent the economy from getting bak to normal. straws in the wind everywhere. to me the reluctance to allow baseball bak is key indicia

many numbers show that the % of school age kids that die from virus and % that transmit it to others is close to zero, like the cahnces of getting bit by a shark. why are schools beinn closed> all their funding and training and people are believes in idea in grip

scenes from the life of Elmer Kelton, voted the best western writer by Spur. " dadddddddd didnt like the way (cont) if new york shows it this low with all their incentives to hype the fitgures it must be close to zero

sure enugh dr. fauci is exhibit number 1 as to why sports stadiums cant continue to have games. " if people have to social distance , so be it " 



another day from mother market with just a smalll range of 30 pts frm 2835 to 2863 just 28 pts. how in Hades can the public pay their way for the gigantic infrastructure and expensive equipment when there's just a 30 point range. expect a wild ride today during the day

the greenies are still in control withtne nikkei resting above 20000 and bonds refusing to go d own for fourht day in row with oil up 300% for 15 th day in row. we should thank a certain options broker for dropping 1000 million to make the oild market go up 3000% intwo weeks

The greenies are doing less pull ups now that sp is down almobt 30 but theywill ahve their day

why do states with most interventio policies have the highest death rates what does this have to do with mother nature adjusting the rabbit pop to the amount of feed available? a thought engendered by the time it never rained by elmer kelton the audible version is best

a sad story about orange county the death rate from covid is 3 per 1000000 yet all the resorts are locked down . they have to believein theidea that has the world in its grip to survice and prosper. and that idea buries them the balance of nature

remembrace of things past. nikkeiabove200000 againand bonds are dw nandstcks treatenng to go higher.. the baseball season reminds us of things past when it was invented as an agrarian discipline

nikkkei playing footsie with 20000 level



unusual action in sp tonie a range of just 27 pts . how can public make a nice contribution to infrastructue with such small. also unusal is resilience of sp with nikkei and dax cratering and bonds up a pt

nice unnoticed 200% continuous rise in crude in last two weeks.

correction . amazing resilience of sp versus dax very bear fo sp today but bull overnite and tomorrow

perhaps a bounce in sp from 900 am to 10 am et

nikkei bouncign from down 3% at 19712 to 19745 at 9am

perhaps bouncing is over based on the amzing overperformance of sp to other markets weakness in other markets gathers steam with bonds exerting negativeinfllllllllluence also

tremendous u p moves in dax and niikkei of 200 a;ace make mr. round from below look viable from sp

now we can see wha tthe low range of 25 pts from high to low as of 9am lured one into and provided ample opportunnity fro the public to do the wrong thing. on thing is constant . the strong will take from the weak

the greenies are having a field day

Michael Chekalin

Replying to

Great job Vic. Not a single call you made (cont)



a very sagacious man has a very surprising and a priori unliikely prediciton

should be nice sp for asian markets at least

the most salieint things in news to me as they effect the market are the two repubocans that won close races unexpectedy and the growing awareenss that the death rate from cooroa is very similar to flu that the # of fatalatics has been vastly overestimated.

also the growing movement by the common mand and woman to add the contributions they make to bettermetn in their jobs regardoess of the hgher amount they make on unemployment.

the market has had its mandatory bout of breakig the round # of 2800 from above 



Let us not

August 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

let us not be too obsequious for ralph. admittedly in the past he has b een ver y accurate with his bullish call. but in fact hs had been bearish  during the 3ntire 50%  rise in the market since midmarch. recently the      market has gone up 6 days in arow from 3240 t 33 32 in the world  a  person who is bearish and leveraged has  withstood this  rise   , one doent  know. in amy case its' been obvious for some time that Mr. vince is reaching out for  reasons non preidictive and  chart based to be bearish. we do not help him or us by complimenting him on oen day rite and 49% rise wrong. however, admittedly he has been one of the most accurate and useful people on this list. but we dont help him or us by heaping aencomia on hism  anyone who has followed his o or worse yet has  basked in the adulation we have to Mr. Vince is terribly hurt financially

Michael Cook writes: 

let us not be too obsequious for ralph. admittedly in the past he has b een ver y accurate with his bullish call. but in fact hs had been bearish  during the 3ntire 50%  rise in the market since midmarch. recently the      market has gone up 6 days in arow from 3240 t 33 32 in the world  a  person who is bearish and leveraged has  withstood this  rise   , one doent  know. in amy case its' been obvious for some time that Mr. vince is reaching out for  reasons non preidictive and  chart based to be bearish. we do not help him or us by complimenting him on oen day rite and 49% rise wrong. however, admittedly he has been one of the most accurate and useful people on this list. but we dont help him or us by heaping aencomia on hism  anyone who has followed his o or worse yet has  basked in the adulation we have to Mr. Vince is terribly hurt financially

lerm… truth, I was long in late march, I didn't start getting short until early May. in fact, I can go a LONG time like this too. anyone who is "following me" and gets hurt, deserves exactly that; I don't post things here for others to "follow" or tailgate. Rather I try to give the reason why, and open up avenues for discussion, but more importantly,  that this is an endeavor in patience and nerve, not tools for finding an easier, softer, more comfortable way. Most players are looking for a means to use the markets so as to make money painlessly.. Anyone seeking comfort in the markets is looking in the wrong place. I make no apologies for drawdowns and I posit that since you are in the binary world either at equity highs or some degree of drawdown, you better learn to deal with drawdown and the concomitant discomfort  which I try to exhibit real-time. 

This has been a nickel-dime game so far this year in 2020.The entire year will come down to being on the right side of this for no more than several very critical days when it breaks. Patience. Nerve.

If you want, I'll follow Tyler and Jonathan and the others out the door and leave the list to its  books and theories and colleges and kids and political yap and sports nonsense and masks and economic yibbityblibbity and recipes and whatever. I'm focusing on those several critical days just ahead up the road and I'm not being knocked off my game by anyone's opinion of me or what Im trying to do.



Quantity theory of moeny with production down and  money up leads to inflation . and  provides an antidote to the harmful government  substitution of production work with    expanded  emoluments  and  setting the basis for marxism and loss of free enterprise



NGO Vote

August 13, 2020 | Leave a Comment

It is still way too early to make an educated guess about the Presidential election.  It is not too early to examine what each side should be doing to win.
If I got 2016 right, I absolutely blew it on 2018 because I failed to see how completely the Democrats had succeeded in permanently winning the NGO vote.  That is my label for all the people in the United States who do not believe in profit and loss.  That is NOT to say that they do not believe in money and personal wealth; what they think is irrelevant is whether or not government actions require any kind of cost-benefit analysis.
Bernie Sanders' extraordinary success should have been seen for what it was - a commitment to socialist accounting, not Marxist ideology.  As much as "conservatives" had no trouble with the waste and stupidity of our Southeast Asian war, the NGO vote has no trouble with the Black Lives Matter/Antifa violence.  It is not happening in their direct lives, and it is minor violence in favor of what they believe in. 
What bewilders me about the choice of Kamala Harris is that she is absolutely the worst possible choice for engaging the NGO vote.   



today so that there will be universal income for and mediare for all. " let it rip" schumer said in an effor t to take back the senate and destroy the economy at same time

however, we note that the last big high occured on 4 - 29 . just 7 days ago.." have you tested that" willl the numbers trump the anti trumps? a great modern example of " the chickens coming home to roost" Perhaps the chicken should be hung around the great option trader head of fine firm neck

the markets ae wearing green berets this morning. how can they induce the publc to lose?

the drs gave us the business yesterdaay now 8 days and a 100 big points since the last big high 



keys to game updays in a row: very strong close:beginnings of reulsion in bonds: histeresis in stocks: refusal to understand that stocks czn be strong when economoy is weak: what else



a goood article from the wsj for those individualists who have not listened to the bears heres the article. . like many older persons a good book, show or article like thisi one elicits many past experiences and causes one to cry.

as m the principal of my elementray school said to me. "youshoudl knwo better your fatehr is a cop" worse than dr ferguson is dr. fauci . he should know better because he's in the field and hides his agendawhy can t we all stay at home many umemplooyed receiving more money then when they were at worik with the (cont) 

 why can t we all stay at home many umemplooyed receiving more money then when they were at worik with the (cont)



the grass is green, the flowers are in bloom and every market looks great. what can the top feedeers do to gain food at the expense of public today?

how about a nice ephemeral decline on the unemployment annnouncemts before nikkei hits 20000 and spf hits 2900 on the way to constructal numbers 

all the rounds have been broken. the only question is whether Frida willl make the as usual a new 60 day high at 20445. Biden seems like he'll be reaping the whirlwind only other question is why bonds were up on Thur. new stages in economy to come with all malinvestment 

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