Aug

31

BBQ Heaven.

August 31, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Jeffery Watson writes: 

Yesterday at 4PM, I put a couple of shoulders on the smoker. I'm doing it very low and slow, and expect this meat to run 22-24 hours on the smoker. No problem, our guests aren't coming until 6 so we should be OK. Smoking meat is the easiest thing to do in the world, just marinate the night before, give it a good dry rub and let it go on low temp (215-230 degrees) until internal temp reaches 205 and it's tender. Keep the meat moist while smoking and spray with apple juice every 2 hours or so. Temperature is critical. After the smoke, let the pork rest for 90 minutes wrapped in tin foil inside an insulated cooler, then take out the bone and pull the pork apart with forks. I always throw a little rub and the juices  back into the pulled pork for an extra taste sensation. BBQ'ing might take a long time, but it's easy to do and tastes so good.   

Larry writes: 

Beautiful… Love the idea of the long smoke time think it makes a huge difference. I'm smoking whole chickens today about 3 1/2 hours also doing smoke corn in the cob if you haven't tried that yet it's a real treat.

Jeffery Watson writes: 

Smoked corn on the cob is also part of our menu along with slaw and homemade potato salad, the potatoes also got some smoke. Just took the shoulders out of the smoker and am now allowing them to rest. Total time was 20 hours and 45 minutes.  I cranked up the smoker To 300 and will be smoking a couple of pounds of sweet and hot Italian sausage. This dinner should turn out pretty decently.

Aug

31

what are the news? bonds at newhigh as stocks down 2 from open.. more woke programs universal preschool and poking fun at those who wish to be individualistic wihtout masks

like the beat , beat beat of the tom toms the bonds go up threatening new his whenever sp is down a moite. that provides a beautiful foundation for tu=futhter sp hi despite

in interim whenever stocis so much as decline 1/4 % bonds move to new highs. a very good foundaton for the next constructao nmber of 33000 on sp relentless rise to new highs

the How close can we be getting when deaths by motorcycle crashdead from a heart attack are being listed as death by CO/immigrant from an East European country tells us that families of persons who have died from anything are, oddly, being offered cash if they agree to list the COprevious cite was to a wsj letter and is part of sink trump pandemic incoluding closing schools and shutting down economic activity before Nov. How can market see thru the propaganda 

Aug

31

heads up from Laurel ."she " cant believe how good the time it never rained is"'' along with monte walsht he top 2 or westerns and a heroic Americanism to aspire to especially now

Aug

31

"with all due modesty i tink imdoing averyeffective job" dickens "i am a very humble person"

ny not doing as welll as dr. cattle says indespearte attempt to sink pres . 2. Pret sales down 87%. 3 diners in Hells kitchen being assuoted by homeless coming out of hotels 

Aug

31

stocks are so strong that bonds refuse tos ee a new high and are down 1/3 of a pt. on day

in an amazing anomaly the higher we go in sp the higher the lead of the challanger no 23 percentage pts. ranomaly 2is that eveything we were taught for 50 years in macroeconomics about way to hlp the economy ,i.e. raising interest rates controlllng infl appears wrong

Thanks to MR. barbato for referring me to thsi article shwoing propaganda machine of aghrarians tosik incumbent

everyone in my family received bcg at birth. https://pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2020/07/07/2008410117.full.pdf livingston wheeler an unsung hero with Pasteur

that should be challenger lead at new high in polls. no evidence that new thrust of incumbent is reducing very sig lead of challenger.a of c head of climate committee that drafted challenger proposals. estimated job loss in 10s of millions. only a billionare could wish this

bonds at new high. incumbent lead at new hi. covid deaths for under 25 cohort signif less than influenza and flu death in same period last 2 months. over reporting of covid deaths in all areas. sp set for new constructal number old high 3225 ish 

Aug

31

what situation does that remind you of a s dr cattle doubles down in every media possible to dump his partner

a doubles game was arranged. my partner was a thief . and it soon transpired th at he was d mping on me. there was only one thing to do . i kicked my partner off the court and hit every shot lefty backhand. ultimately the game was called because of obvious larceny by my partner

tje live intervu between the boy founder and dr. cattle brought bak a memory whcih i couldnt plac e until a now. when i ws 9 or 10 i ws very good in paddle ball. i had to play with my lefty backhand against a regular b+ player

you have to hand it to the chaolenger . his betting odds are 23 percentage pts bett er than the incumbent a maximum lead and the challlenger's suporters havent even wheeled out the october coup de graces 

dr. uriah cattle left no stone unturned in his learned trashing of everything Prez. perhaps( hopefully) this is sign of immminent transportation

lie the beat beat beat of the tom toms the bonds threated new his whenever stocks go down a moite. that provides a magnifcient foundation for futher sp his despite the ever widerning lead of the agrarians, and cattle trader ilk

he mentions that i SEll options" like school boy i stopped many years ago and learned my lessons. I wish I learned more, and I still am attempting to improve my game. the funny thing aobut the derivatives expert i cant go into becasue it is his wont when not pumping to sue

Mr; wolander mentions with invidiousness that he buys options in contrast to me. I am reminded of the 10 yrold that ook bets on football games and was ever after labeled schoolboy until he was 80. i learned my lesson and havent sold premium in 15 yrs. the lessons are many

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uriah_Heep need one say more or wish for transport 

Aug

31

challengers lead over icumb is getting to be greater than ;rez/s lead over ctle trader. One can only hope that as events and pressies conspire to sink him, that he doesnt flail around in desperation thereby giving pressies and fifth colomnists further ammunition to destroy

even dr. cattle couodnt sink market todya. but his attempt to paint all the critique of his wrongness as "bizarre" was a fine defense. reminds one of the chronic bears who point to high p/e in wonderment of market rise to new highs

dr. cattle— havent even begun to see end of pandemc. -poke fun at idea that there is political agenda in closingschools ( sse phil kerpen on this) anomaly that if 90% of crimse is commited by group a how come group a is arrested more than group b

beautiful example on woke station twising eveything — starting out with dr. cattle — who do you trust more virus chief or pres.– havent even begun

marlet opponent refuses to be s uppressed from highs. it must be discourgaing to them that all the kings horses and gold cant further destroy market— but ot oh it keeps increasing lead of incumbent with ever increasing woke agenda

eg. marketing dept of dta compay — fear gage at high level, critical stage as unemplomnt expires, –my bearish bilious friend despite unlimited funds towoke orgs and a ll their tricks with same— dr cattle champing at bit to further excalate caution and pessimism– and yet

sp,e aspect s of market remind me of playing a racket game against someone with a weak bachhand. ( gordy anderson in my case). you keep hitting it to his back hand and its weak and you lose ( nver happn to me). te bilios billionaires keep tryig to suppress market and economy.

many high levels not seen in months in sp and crude and others. market refuses to be curtailed by marketing depts of woke,virus and incumbent 

Aug

31

amazon.com/Books-Rene%CC%81-Lacoste/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3ARene%CC%81+Lacoste

speaking of the crocodile he always took notes of hs oponent and took every balll on the short hop on is toes. he said it gave him an extra 30 points a game. any of his books are highly recomened.

in the rematch federer served the same ball to jokovichs wide to the forehad but instead of stabbing at it for a winner the outcome was different. the crocodile waits for the player i the same place

the safe was found empty containing  a god brick and a penny let us hope a similar expose of ths learned imbecile occurs including alll his corresponence with the cattle trader and her ilk 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Th%C3%A9r%C3%A8se_Humbert the empty treasure box

mr john smith a bio adviser suggests I need help because dr. fauci is a national treasure.". Their is famous con woman who maintained treasure box in France that was empty and she fooled all the courts andofficials with it. that box contains the dr. Ill give you ref ltr 

Aug

31

a robust bonds will ultamely trum virus fears

he contines to help the marxists. 2. the response to thenews today remnds m one of skinners' eperimetns on negative reinforcement. tehre ahve been so amy punishemnnts for the market with fake virus news ( i.e. keepig the schools closed) that the punishment s have lost impact

every oportunity the dr. says something that will help the cattle traders and marxstis to sink the pres. but if the pres dares to express a contrary view, he will be guillonied by the press. as said, te dr. wrote a lovee letter to the cattle trader and by an invisible black hand

finall dr. fauci is receiving witherigncriticim for his single minded concern with dire nutations and possiby unknown effects of the virus.. it mut be very hard for the pres to have soeone like the dr. trying to undermine the economoy and his rospects at every 

a hard fought game with the green pulling out all its stops tosink the red to no avail. histeres galore 

what a fish that was// we killed each other 

Aug

31

strangely the market watch coowned by dow jones is almst as bearish as the billious billionare site.. their lastest is withotu the best perfor tech stocks the sp would ahve erfrmend worse than a saving account.course that's always its as old as hill for bears to site this

more improtant the lead of biden continue at 2 /3 chanc eof wining and whatever incombent does it imediately is pillooried .and morbidity and mortality is vastly overstated to sink Pres can this counterbalance the bond yield boost  apparently not

phil kerpen tweets show that the death rate from preumian and other causes for all is much greater than the death rata from covid and that covid death rates are vastly exggerated by dying with covid rather than dying because of it

what is purpose of closing and restriction on schools except to create feeling of unhappiness and poverty (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srap9f

some nice big bond moves increase the chances of relentless drive of stocks perhaps with a histerisis 

Aug

28

End of Days

August 28, 2020 | Leave a Comment

In polling it really is.  The data continues to be unprecedented.  2020 is the first time since Gallup started doing samples that a political party has had ZERO improvement in the popularity of its candidate for President after its national convention.
Since the DNC:  The number in the brackets is the change in Biden's lead from the previous poll by the same pollster.
Ipsos Biden +7 (-1)
Hill/HarrisX +9 (+1)
Econ/YouGov +9 (-1)
Rasmussen +1 (-3)
Yahoo/YouGov +11 (0)
CNBC/Change +8 (+2)
Morning Consult +10 (+2)
CBS/YouGov +10 (0)

The sum of all 8 polls = 0.  If you remove the outliers in terms of the amount of the change (Rasmussen, CNBC, Morning Consult), the remaining 5 have a MINUS 1 reading.  
Extraordinary.

Aug

28

Richard Owen writes: 

https://youtu.be/CrrBlYphsdU?t=197

195 INT.  DIVA'S  SUITE / CONCERT  HALL

Leeloo knocks out the last Mangalore just as the Diva finishes her song to a burst of applause.  The Diva takes a bow.  So does Leeloo.

196 INT.  ROOM

Akanit and his men listen to the concert. The Mangalore guard runs in MANGALORE. They were waiting for us! It was an ambush!

Victor Niederhoffer writes: 

too subtle for me  what's the import ? 

Richard Owen writes: 

Many of the tech-growth majors were down, except TSLA, after Mr. Powell. In the film, 5th Element, after the Divas solo finishes, the ship blows up. What are Mr. Powells personal incentives now? If he taps the breaks, he'll need extra security for thanksgiving, but he's only two years into a four year term (I think?). If he doesn't tap the breaks, it seems hard to serve out two more years without getting a lot of hot macro-prudential lava on himself. So is it to appear expansive of his mandate whilst really confining it (was anybody already not expecting lower for longer and high tolerance) and hope covid/dems politicise the fed and take it out of his hands?

Aug

28

[oclomg Milie up many years after he had retired. and when he walked down Mullberry street to pickhierup, all the men of respect stampeded out of all the cooffee ships on Mulberry street thinkign that billl had coem to make more arrests

one of best stories ive heard is this. bill put many of the Godfather's in prison. they liked to frequent a coffer shop on Mulberry street. that was also the venue for the Fantastocs which Bills very capable wifeMillie liked to see frequently. one day bill was picking millie

https://amazon.com/Vice-Cop-Twenty-Year-Battle-Yorks/dp/0821740253/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=vice+cop&qid=1594344141&sr=8-1

bills bok Vice cop is the best true crime book i've read. billl has the record for most arrest. He was also head of bomb squad

bill mccarthy, a friend and student of Artie says t hat a souce of the problem is that suddenly its become de rigeur to resist arrest he says that some of time a no knock rule is justified. most policeman are not trained and practiced in using physical force. his book

beware of the easy way to the Bad one

bonds at yet another all time high , a nd crude falling below 40 for first time in days

the oikuce have a verycushy deal with the political savvy of theirunios, the difficuoty fo foing, and not rehiring, qualified immunity andtheiruse of militry equipmetn, the no knock and their tactics

the situation is similar to mayof the kurosawa samura movies where the warring party kept the fact that their chief general and leader was dead from the enemy. i am told that the bars in tokyo are controlled by the Godfathers and that the politicians can only suggest

one of the hidden motifs is that the cahlallenger must not face the incumbent in debates as his socialism and mental lapses would show so that the pressies must prepare the agenda to showo that the viruses makei it mandatory to halt all debates until after the election

very approately led by the most liberal school harvard— closing its sports program for the fall - and like nite the day all the other ivys fall along to sink the pres and maintain their monoopoly on ideological conformity for the new political party to bephil kerpen as a

nice graph showing the nmber of deaths from mexico sitely higher than the us but b oth decreasing. he neglects to say waht the hobo poitns out that all the us death come from mexico going for better care and air conditioning

 after an incredibl deceptie day, the market takes a rest for athe evening with just a 18 point range —- so far. — but yopu have to gave the sp credit for withstanding aklll the marxist closing and curtailing of schools . sort of going up on the firwsst really bad

Aug

28

the sp seems ready to resume its relentless rise to new highs

boosting the cattle traders chances and waiting for Chance gardner

heres the skinny. from math puzzles volume 1 presh talwalkar. doc here. from nature walk. originally too (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1srahcm

as discussed sometimes the team that's slitelyahead ends up losing

same old drumbeat. market at 3140 seems too far down prez gained 1 percentage point in betting odds 

Aug

28

https://scientificamericadn.com/article/bet-on-the-losing-team/ doc castaldo back from quarantine inItaly tomorow and we willl have a t horough discussion of this as it applies to markets

a waiting move today

https://foxnews.com/politics/cuomo-says-no-decision-on-whether-new-york-schools-will-reopen-in-the-fall-amid-coronavirus I predict that the decision will depend on sinking Trump and the marketing depus of the virus and the state of sp. a multivaraite dummy variable regression is approriate 

up the lazy river 

Aug

28

i calcu this for sp markt for last 10 years. and find that as of 12 noon if the market is down, the chances it will end up is 20% and if the market is down at of 1 00 pm, the chances it will end up is 18%.articles on is losing better than winning are relevant

as the market soars , one turns to a proability questiosn that pres forwalker aks. if tow teams are e venly mathcched what is the proability that thet eam that's losinn will end up the winner at the end. he presents a prob . model and empiricla resuls tat shows that 0.25 is ans

woulnt it be likely for a professional league possibly in the playoffs in oct. to have the rest of season canceled as the makreting dept of the virus find one of the players tests positive for the virus, especiallly if incumbent is catchng up to challanger at time

as the market soars to a new 19 day high, one is quried abut the influence of jb and anthoy inbasktballl onthe outcomes. I foud the besta nswer is that " the only team that can practice social distancing i the knicks on defense. steve's joke but there no s.dist possile

Mr. Jordan makesa good point on spec list . with alll the marxists united against prez , and their access to all sorts of damaging ifo on the econoy and markets and the prez. chacter and lapses, it is likely they will put the final crusher on Prez inOctober 2020

its only a ripple but if it was a market there would be a notice. for first time in 3 weeks teh bidens lead over pres has decreased. its now only 59% chance of beating the pres

out of population of 50 million schoool age kids there have been 15 deaths . thus a 1 in 3 million chance of school age kid dying despite the bias to hype the number of deaths ..

Aug

28

the evolution of greariousness ( hed like behavior) the wearing of masks, the bearsihness of Abelson and upside down man, the deifciation of the new Marxist party to be, the contagion of cheers for bad economic news, the momentum ( trend following of incumbents lead) 1 of 2

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1277356590144815105 despite the many reasons that deaths from covid are lyped up by overcounting the # of deaths keepe declining. and many flu deaths are probably counted as covid deaths. all to create a sense of misery before election 

Aug

28

SLAB CITY LOWEST, IMPREIAL COUNTY HIGHEST IN USA​ ​ Slab City, CA has become a free national refugee camp (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sra904

thats dow 1900. he missed a 30 fold increase from 1956 . appparently the cattle trader followed him because she made her $ 99967from theshort sdie ofcattle. amazingly she did this while she said she was bullish form the wsj columns ( that didnt exist)

as mentioned you cant have breakfast all day. after 4 rises in a row covering 125 sp points just a little pause to cover shorts for the bears causes havoc. it only happend 4 times befire july 4. alll were up the next us trading day an average of 1%.

once he had a column with 15 independent reasons for being bearish. the dr. usualll give on reason pulled out of the hat from alll his colleagues in reseach around the world that could be bearish and deserving of caution and lock down

like the chronci bear the upsdie down man and many others he isadamant in seeking ot something self serving and cattle trading serving that will prevent happiness .. and tend to sink the economy. peopple loved abelson the way they do the dr.and he was eclectic in his reasons 

Aug

28

te crocs came out and scared everyone off the beach at 350 and then went bak to ther restig places.. a scare and a ambush without bodies

the crocs hated stee because he captured them alll and they waited to ambush him. there willl be no ambushed today i thiink

again the cdc , fda are united in covering things so that they will be at the fore regardless of what transpires pinnochi rasputin persists in maintaing necessity of futher guidance , restricitons . everything cattle trader from Pinnoch. cattle trader-be ahd of incumb

very subtle destructionof value at fda again.. they will only approve vaccine iif its 50^%% better than placebo. howoever the opalacebos are 90% likely not to detiorate.. so vaccine couldnt possiblye be aprovedl. have to be 10x effective. thus, not invesnted here persts

i believe alll crocodiles are resting and occupied with watching the bathers 

mr 50 hit again as pres gloats with prepared text. but this apparently not helping him in odds one cant resist a little short at these levels

the bilious billionaire site headlind that covid cases set a new record and cunempoyment calims exceeded expetations lobster bus in stonington is way down restaurants are closed ( as it is in vinyl so the little woman wil not be takingme there this summer

last one was up 60 the crocodile awaits the visitor who fishes at the same place twice in a row 

Aug

26

Recessions

August 26, 2020 | Leave a Comment

I went to look at past recessions beginning with the one that  officially started in Aug '1929. I looked that the number of months  the recession officially lasted for what the highest the  unemployment rate got up to was, what the lowest GDP dropped during  it, and the drop in the DJIA. there were 14 official recessions in this period (Iam not counting the current recession we are in).Interestingly, the correlation between the depth of the unemployment  rate and the number of months the recessions lasted for was .8438. In other words, the deeper the unemployment rate, the longer the  recession lasted for to a very high correlation.

The depth of GDP drop too was highly correlated to the months the recession lasted to a correlation of .75.

Every recession saw  market drop-off of varrying degrees with the  least being -5.727% from fb to october 1945, the worst -89.19% from  Aug 1929–Mar 1933 Of the 14 recessions, 10 saw market drops >20%, and 4 of those saw  drops >45 %.

So I would expect this recession to last a long tim based on unemployment and GDP so-far. However, even though all recessions saw a market drop, th severity of the market drop and the length of  months the recession lasted was only +.03. The other factors that correlated to market drop during recessions was depth of unemployment rate correlating positively by .12 to depth of market correction, and depth of GDP drop correlating positively to market  drop by .35

Aug

26

2Q GDP

August 26, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Ralph Vince  writes: 

With a GDP of 21.75 t coming into this year, the quarterly contribution to this is therefore roughly 5.5 t.

Last quarter, 1.1t was shed, making the quarterly contribution about 4.4t, of which  3 t was "injected."

So take away the injected stimulus, and economic growth last qtr was about 1.4t.

Bud Conrad writes: 

I agree with your general thrust that the economy is in terrible shape.

But I note that it is not quite as bad as you indicate by subtracting all stimulus from the GDP calculations. Much of the stimulus was to buy assets to shore up markets, but the Gross Product doesn't take into account asset holding transfers.

Of course, asset purchases by the government SPV's do provide money to the sellers, to go buy additional assets like stocks and bonds, or even to invest in a few productive assets that might help the economy, so it is not clear what share of such spending should be deducted form the number to get to what it could have been, but we agree that it is very weak.

Aug

26

harry roberts was a learned professor and good runner and quality controlman. and friend. he wrote a good bayesian statistics book not published bu he loved differenc tween difference between odds. ratios. he could have used the triangle of challenger incumbent cattle tr

the useful learned idiot ignormaous is growing a longer nose than Pinnochil. hs explanation as to why he said that the public shoudnt wear face masks as they didnt help was that he was trying to save the available moite for hospitals he is intrvwd so often that he trips on nose

of course the ny governor who has ceded the plan for a new police to the protesters who have won is adamant on not allowing dining indoors as this willl help to sink incumbent

all the bilious ones could come up with today was apple is closing 13 stores , Mcdonalds wont allow indoor dining in those not already allowing it. the difference beteen odds of challeng ,incumbent almosot as great as difference between odds of cattle trader , incumbent.

presumably the incumbent wouldnt have said in his press conference that he hopes the employmentnumbers are good unless Mr. Kudlow had told him he wouldnt be embarrased by it. we had 3 nice updays and only before employment it s not bearisih. its 16 days since the lst 20 day

many snares and delusions in paths to rounds. all those learned ignoramuses and useful idiots espousing or hoping for collectivism —abandoning ship holding their fire today 

Aug

26

the leaed ignoramus tries to hide behing his love of the cattle trader and desire to sink the incombent

amazingl conrnelll did some independent thinking without regard to sinking the incumbent https://wsj.com/articles/why-cornell-will-reopen-in-the-fall-11593535516 apparenly they;s so far r e moved from the other Ivy's that they can make a decision based on benefit to students rather than fund raising 

from 1 am its' anyone's game 

as mentioned i can no longer stay tuned to market 24 or 48 hours straight. and a recent reading of the godfather inspired me to spike my coffee with anissette tonight. so i lll have to let you go as the Greek said to Moss. the odds are 2 to 1 that it will be up at 1 am but

situation reminds mme of Patrick o brian''s description of a sinking ship. all hands acting for themselves and free to abandon captain in a life boat. who else is going to come out against the incumbent. how can they hurt him? so many of the recs are fostering the hoaxl ony cor

the bilious billionaires did as much as they couodl to sink it. and the odds on the challamger winning reached an alll time high. strangely strength befor first day of month is bull. and we see a round number in the offing soon. it been so long since a 20 day high

market showed its intrinsic strength today. on the lst day of month, usualy a pandemic tit rose strongly for second day in row. they tried everything. fauci tired to briing ti dowon with scare tactic. and so did change powell. the surgeon journal weighed in with ridic recs

a double header galore of trying to put f inal touches on incumbent. an d the spectacle of alll the politicians wiht masks on certifying their own watchfulness during the hoax is loathsome and bearish in itself. the market is amazingly resilietn considering everything. base 

played footwie with 50 and a stern Irishman looked askance 

Aug

26

how could we not give an honorific to the yae professor nobel prize winnner who is always bearsish and provides statsitcs about p/e that are completely misleading. and our frend the upsdie down man

its someoe whoo kows only his own field but it ignorant of everything else.. who else would yo ugrace with that appeation. it would be very useful

we have previoously enumerated useful idots including pau volker and mauy modernday alanabelsons. but we have not paid enuf attnentoto learned ignoramuses. dr. fauci is one.

Aug

26

andthe dax is perilously close to a constructal nuber of 12000. it s anyone s game again now that spu has broken the inevitable round

the senate impeachment trila was jan 21 to feb 1. could you just understand the hate and vitriol that woud have been thron ata the ncumbent if he had banned travel from relevant countries during that time. the nikke is no longer hyper

another tell paper of recod in ny after firing editor looks like house organ for the likely new party 

nikei and dax going thru rooof

its been suggested i concentrate on football as a tell. i thin baseballl the quintessentail american game much better tellwith all these specious reasons I am leaning to the bull side even earilier th an plannned

straws in the wind: derivatives expert says if investor s dotn se a tail risk they shouldnt be in the market. mark hulbert uses data from 1890 to show that Fed model doesnt work. covid cases icrease with more testing. biden lead icreases. 5 reasons to be bearish besides virus

keys to game . should be a very good empplyment and friday. question is whether to buy on Monday morning or Monday close. collectivists puling out all the stops to sink trump and economy over weeked. incombent lead over cattle trader continues to fall in betting makets. 

Aug

26

in foro a peenny at these levels

te big catholic schoools would pay bklyn much money to come to be defected 83-0 . a typical score Notra dame 79 bklyn -3 it was pleasant ofr those in the Midwestto see the people of Jewish faith be massacred in foootballl.

can a footballl score ever get negative? one reflects as tne probaility of the incumbent keeps receding , it s now 39% versus 56% for biden. how low can it get? when my father played quarterbak for bklyn colllge in 1930 his team sometimes scored 0 against n.d.

Aug

26

Bulls and bears both in no mans land where a move in either direction is requited by a counter move. the net result is a change very close to unchanged— so far… how can the top feeders change this to make the public go the wrong way

beginning to hear just one more salvo from the Marxists. " the stock market did much better during the administration ofo the obama and clinton than the bush and Trump. On another front, i see a confimred death rate of 0.04% for those in the Us under 65

now that I think of it Tobey Crabel who i rescued from the homeless used to beat me also with the same weak serve and volley game. His tennis at that time I thik everyone can agree was much superior to his trading

it was very good for my game. I never lost on my court except once I played Gene scott and he trounced me by poayign a old fasioned serve and volley game wiithout much of a serve

i owned a vichla for many years. he had a disruptive habit of rumming after tennis bls amdcarrying them inhis mouth the only way I could get the balls away from him was by reppeating "thank you very much" pften. My daughter katie joined me i these episodes

Aug

25

Market

August 25, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Is really going vertical here.I remember some vertical markets in 99-2000. Tech then too.

Aug

25

Zomby

August 25, 2020 | Leave a Comment

one has been a zomby the last 6 days without any communication in or out  possible because of the conn tornad. I  did so some readling  including the  birth fo a saleman and british expansion af ter loss iduring Amer revo.  and of couse listen on a faltering one bar cessl pphon e again to the time is never rainded. the best thing i read to put everything in perspective was    " four  months of GOvernment Malfeasance { by Hheather Mac Doonald  https://www.manhattan-institute.org/four-months-unprecedented-government-malfeasance       i would recommend it to everyone. My wife wants to know " is this the time for the stock market to decline?"  whats your answer? what would Sam eisenstat say?

Aug

25

theyve done their worst presumablly

we have tinkeers to evers with Fuaci yesterday and the lockdowns by the agrarian loving governors . alll we nee is jay hance to complel the double play… appparently hes holding his fire so far

oof course the number of cases is increasing. however, the daily deaths fromcovid continues to decrease despite alll the incentives to hype the death rate

they threw everything they could at stocks today in a last desperate attempt to sink the incumbent and create economic disaster. however, they didnt give it the fialcoup de grace

Aug

25

thats what the market loves to give you a clear shot but fools yoou into not taking it via deception

ontogeny recapitulates philogeny the market mistesss is very economcal with the price move eveything from 3080to 3140 last 5 days ( witha little exursion for fun 3060- fora few seconds. makes one feel like an idiot that one wasnt able to catch such small range

one of anti Trump memes is that he says that the more testing we do the most cases of viorus youlll find.would think that everyone would agree with that. but that is one of pressies main bones to pick with Prez. we live in polemical and Jacobin times as wsj pts out

dr fauci trying to express his concern and disagreements with eveything Trup.all bears need is for Jay chance gardner to come in with another forecast of decimation of economy. Fauci to Evers to Chance for a double play to attempt to sink economy and Trump

it is itneresitng that dimension finally has something right. they reprot a study that high price to book valuecomppaneis returned 16% per year versus 12% for value stocks over the 19 year s ending 2019. sice then its been more of same

ja doube again after 8 am its completelly random so the market may have to wander without any shorts from ephemeral reasons

the move overnite has been 0.4 exactly the same as ny move from 2011 and since 2019 the moves again is identical 0.6. in both cases

imagine what the Pressies would be saying if the market were swooning. Instead of the sattle trader niping at the heels of thePres, it would be the Pres nippinng at her heels

but in retrospect now that I know the reasons it is good to see that r. Kudlow is on the ball to prevent any market squalls and that his boss is also on alert. its good to have them on guard aginst alll the propaganda . at least they know their last hope is to keep it up.

one of virtues of not folowing the news at all but followingthe price is that the whole apisode of 50 pts downand 70 pts up whichfollowed loose cannon Navarros remarks and Kudlow and Incumbents denial is that one is ignorant or why things happen

another fake reasonto decry the markets rise is that brewski is coming in london and ny and su0pposedoy thhis as important as the icrease in covid cases as testing increases.. however, it is unusuall to see market up today and i may succomb to go against the drift 

Aug

25

a symptom of how much hope there is of the economoo cratering and the viruses increasing and the incumbent s prospects thereby declining was the markets 50 pts drop to 3060 at 930 et. in 10 minutes.

https://marketwatch.com/story/he-hates-shorting-the-market-and-lost-a-ton-of-money-betting-against-high-flyers-in-1999-but-hes-at-it-again-2020-06-21?mod=newsviewer_click " thee is absolutely no reason to own equities now" except for the drift and propganda against t he incombent and the recent close

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-bayes-theorem-with-ratios/ how much more likely is the pres to beat the cattle trader than for the ivisible man to beat the incumbent

why is news like this suppressed. those who wish more collectivism regulated their n numbers and exposure to make the environment for individualis untenable for reproduction and growth.i.e the predators crowd out the prey

guaranteed not to be reported. the number of daiky deaths frin virus in us at 287 is at a minimu and the % of deaths from those infected at 1% is at a minimum. see Phil Kerpen for proper reporting 

Aug

25

incumbent willl exceed difference beteen odds of incumbent versus cattle trader.

shocking decline if last 20 minutes to close at 30454 a erious decline of 3%.. from open of 3144.. ultimately the twin destroyers of Dr. baseball and jay chance gardner were too much for market to withstand. ultimately the difference in odds favoring the invisible man over 

Aug

25

incumbent willl exceed difference beteen odds of incumbent versus cattle trader.

shocking decline if last 20 minutes to close at 30454 a erious decline of 3%.. from open of 3144.. ultimately the twin destroyers of Dr. baseball and jay chance gardner were too much for market to withstand. ultimately the difference in odds favoring the invisible man over 

Aug

25

as Martie Reisman wuld say " this is a key 10 minutes —– to determine whether we cloose above or below the round

wouldnt i t have been better to say that baseballl may not be poayed this year because baseblll is the quintissential american sport which talkes place at the same leisurely pace as farming used to and most people rend their lives. regardless, pressie are using predctn

cattle trader snapping at Heels of Incumbent https://google.com/search?q=pres+odds+stossel&oq=pres&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j69i59j69i60l2j69i61j5l2.5488j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

you cant suppress jay chance gardner..thrice is not enuf at Princeton for fourth time he now has 2600 down dow pts to his credit. Apparetllly Mr. kudlow must wield a very mercifuo Cat

turn your attention to dinner not a sinner

sp up twice as much as before any quarteroy expiration. a greenish day except bonds manage to be down.cattle trader continues to catch up witn incombent inn pres odds 

Aug

25

de rigeur

how capital is to be deployed better than the owners of companies themselves

reminiscent of last year whenever the cattlle trader surged and the prez faltered the market went thru he roof.. until–midnight on election day. why is it that investors favor the decimation of capitalism. do they reallly feel that Pelosi and Jay gardner can decide

a standard day in the market today. appparentlyl the market loves socialism as the pres keeps falling furtehr and further behind with cattle trader having hin in her sights. the invisible man exerts his influence by doing nothing and letting all events be balmed on Prez

much more important woulld be visit with Cat to woodshed with Jay Chance Gardner who seems to have no idea that the sound bites fed to him cause havoc in the sp so far 2500 dow points directly after the three sound bites. with this far behind, the Prez cant afford these

prez seems to be distancing himself from his problem with biden way ahead of him and cattle trader looking at him from below.. he notes that in enthusiasm hes way ahead of biden. perhaps someo 

ne should tell him that enthusiasm doesnt count in winning elections

the move from 3pm on Wed to 10 pm . Just 7 hours was 3% down.Perhaps a buying oopportunity as bilious billonaires , trump hateres a ll rest on their laurel and hoopefor a repeat of last Thur 175 pt sp and 2000 ptss dow fall, fall, fall

a topsy turvy world with the Prez's own man sinking the market byy 2500 dow points in just 3 prepared http://phrases.as the cattle trader's chances rise to the level of TRumpps for Prez, the hatred and blame of Trump can cfreate temporary ephemral squal lke today 

Aug

24

American Odds

August 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Alex Castaldo writes: 

On this web site https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures the American Odds for Biden to win are quoted as -135 and for Trump +115

For those not familiar with America Odds here is how you convert AO to a probability

if AO < 0:

   prob = |AO| / ( |AO| + 100)

else

  prob = 100 / (AO + 100)

So the probability for Biden is 135/235 = 0.574

and for Trump 100/215 = 0.465  

Richard Owen writes: 

What is the origin of the AO format? It was deemed more accessible to punters to speak in terms of $100 units? Is the negative sign subconsciously in front of the favourite to dissuade people from betting the favourite? Old school bookrunners tended to be overweight the favourite winning, but now tend to be hedged?

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

I hate to disagree with Jeff about anything regarding gambling, but he is ignoring what he knows about hedging.  The amount of money actually bet online on  American politics is - at most - a tiny fraction of what is wagered on sports.  The success of DraftKings alone confirms this.

https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/help/sports-betting/where-is-sports-betting-legal

The line on Predict-It and other politics wagering sites can be moved with a bet that will have zero effect on any of the dozen parlays that are offered for the next Liverpool match.  Since the actual wagering does not need to be balanced by the bookies, they can set whatever line will attract the most attention and give them the most publicity and general  traffic.   Political odds are used the way Sam Walton used the stacks of peanut brittle when he started with his J. C. Penney stores.  He put them on the sidewalk or just inside the entrance and the people walking/driving down Main Street have to take a look.  

Biden and his odds are the peanut brittle.  Odds favoring Trump would have the opposite emotional effect.

Aug

24

https://www.quantamagazine.org/weather-data-reveals-long-predicted-pressure-waves-20200813/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosscience&stream=science

 

Aug

24

Nock

August 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

marching thru georgia at the wigwam.  like the  hoped for decline at 33 55

Aug

24

so fr the Chairs triple eader has been good for 250 sp points against the prez. 50 yest, 20 today and 150 pts on the fomc. that 2000 dow points/

the cattle traders odds of becoming Prez willl soon surpass the current Prez

3 times the chair has sunk the pres with prepared statements of an invidious nature. once on the fomc and twice on his consecutive Humphey Hawkins testimony. Apparently Mr. Kudlow should have a stern talk with him at the woodshed lest the cattle traders odds of Prez

"without modern precedent " one that coudl permannetly damage the economy" unless ( a more compassionate person currently in his basement but leading by 12 percentage pts in the odds https://electionbettingodds.com tkaes the helm )

a fair weather friend is the worst kind to have in the swamp or chairing the Reserve

will somone telll the chair that he sent market down 5% with his seemingly innocuous remarks that the economy is still weak. or will his assistants refrain from spilling the beans that their answers to his likely questions were designed for that purpose

Aug

24

the autonomous group?

Mr. Chairman i d like to thank you for the comprehensve view youve given us on state of the pandemic, mrkt & the economy my question is are the protest groups and occupy in seattle ( in general those not funded by Mr. Palindrome eligible whether on Main street or route 1

perhaps a bear day at lest until 2 am et

aftr listening to Jay Powells testiminy where the amrket moves 10 points on his every answer " hes infavor of loans to non-profits, mainstreet " anything good . i feel i have not hit bullseye with Mr. Cllophen. He's mabel in poor wandering one take me

mr. cellophane tryig to sink the Pres and giving a fed's consensus anti forceast

perhaps a decline from the open

youtube.com/watch?v=PEM_63_P0CY so a voice within me keeps repeating fall, fall, fall

not mentioned by the bears is that a big decline in dollar is insanely bull for sp. taking the 7 times when dollar sunk the most over last 10 years,(no overlap) i.e a decline of 10% against the Euro the sp up concurrently every time an average of 600 or 3%

like the beat beat beat of the tom tom the fellow travelers are subtly coming back to decry the economy and in the process add to biden's lead steve roach pppredicts dollar dropp of 1/3 and Leo Cooperman predicts decimation for mom and pop investors. palindrome —

nikkei up 1000 about 5% very bull for sp

the probability in favor of Biden winning election keep getting better now almost 60%. MR. Kudlow must be on guard not to let the tohershoe fall by allowing the swammp against the Pres including Mr. cellophane and the cdc to continue shooting at the Prez 

Aug

24

Jordan Neuman writes: 

Ralph referenced the liquidity situation on 10/20/87. You can research and see that the S&P Futures settled at a 10% discount to the cash on 10/19. But it was wholly untradeable.   For one thing, you couldn't get a broker to answer your call. In a real stress situation liquidity is an illusion.  That's one thing the man from Lebanon has right.

Hernan Avella writes: 

He only things these analogues of ‘87 are predictive of, is the age cohort of the person that brings them up and his/her relative underperformance to the mkt.

Ralph Vince  writes: 

Nonsense. Try to overcome your animosities towards others and me and act like a man here. 

If you weren't around over a period of a critical couple of days in October, 1987 you don't know, firsthand, what a lack of liquidity in equities and credit instruments is like. If you think that cannot happen again, that the past is not germane to the current environment, or that you are wise enough to see it when it eventually comes, good luck — God' knows you;re going to need it.

Those of us who were around and deeply involved in it back then know full-well that it not only can happen again, but that things are far more precarious now, structurally, than then, for several reasons, each of which independently conspires to make things now far more dangerous.  

Michael Cook writes:

Notwithstanding the fisticuffs here, I wasn't around in '87 but I was in the middle of 97/98 when, for instance HKMA went openly and highly aggressively bid only into its currency and equity markets. The message telegraphed was 'we will buy every damn share you sell up to the size of the entire market'. Soros and a bunch of others were having a crack at Hong Kong after doing so well with all the other Asian/paper tigers, esp Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.

That was 98, way before GFC, QE and the other myriad of dysfunctional acronyms. If we do face a melt down in the US a la '87. I just dont see why the Fed wouldnt straightforward buy the equity market directly to support it.

What would be stopping the Fed, the feeling that that would be illogical, ultra vires, anti-capitalist? Look at what they have done already?! They are already buying corporate debt (bailed GM and AIG in GFC etc etc etc), it is quite a small jump now to just directly buying Apple common stock etc if needed.

I hate it, and I think it all ends in tears, but that looks the name of the game to me until the system literally breaks and we need do a new Bretton Woods / debt jubilee whatever, where the rules are all reset

Aug

24

let us

August 24, 2020 | Leave a Comment

stop the wrangling and iportuqace position of disparate views on this list as it is demeaning and incppropriate. i dotn understand what  the fight is about except no invidiosu comparisons are appropriate. i of course i was there on oct 19, 9187  and it was an options expiations  and interest rates was at a high rather than at a low as they are now. there was considerable  buying and selling of futures on the merc but it was somewhat difficult to trade individual stocks like berkshire without a big  bid asked 

Aug

24

wsj.com/articles/the-data-are-in-its-time-for-major-reopening-11592264199?mod=hp_opin_pos_1 another constructal number at 3100 very close to being requited

the gloom is dampened. the virus marketing dept isinshambles  

with the wsj showing that social dsitancing and lockdowns are only effective in increasing biden's lead and dr. rasputin and the cellophane man on their guard against making a monkey out of themselves

he;s palying the cattle market from the short side like the girl he loves

a constrcutable number is ineluctable 

Aug

20

Guides

August 20, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al Genubi writes: 

Mountain guides are an elite group who guide people into the mountains and backcountry around the world.  They face high risk and uncertain conditions and their job is to mitigate risk while at the same time pushing the limits of their clients to reach higher heights.

A joke among the guides is that the most dangerous situation they can find themselves in is traveling in the mountains with a group of guides.  None of them want to speak up and point out the danger they are getting into for fear of stepping on the other guide's ego, or appearing foolish and other group dynamic issues.  In fact, group dynamics is one of the most dangerous elements in backcountry travel.  Such heuristic issues as who is the leader, fear of being considered scared (when in fact there is danger), fear of looking foolish, expert syndromes, group think, familiarity heuristics, get home itis, summit fever can contribute to disaster.

A lot of the new list members appear to be high level experienced market professionals from the looks of their intro cv's.  Chair is pretty laissez faire, but it's good to contribute without worry.  If you're wrong, someone will tell you how wrong you are here, or the market will, and that is good.  

Jeffrey Hirsch writes:

Eloquent summation Zubin and inspiring. I look forward to discovering and discussing my many flaws and errors

Aug

20

This mornings/last nights premarket bond run up, then closely followed by the spu opening run to  Chair's constructional round (eventually)… Similar to the big bond run, and the slightly lagged spu run up of Thursday: is it connected? regular?

Aug

20

ExecutedToday.com



2015: Khaled al-Asaad, Palmyra archaeologist

Posted: 20 Aug 2020 05:23 AM PDT

Syrian archaeologist Khaled al-Asaad was beheaded by the Islamic State on this date in 2015 for refusing them the ancient artifacts of his native Palmyra.

Eighty-three years old — Palmyra was still a French colony at the time of this birth — Al-Asaad was involved in excavations around that city throughout his adult life. He became the custodian of the archaeological site in 1963 and held the post for 40 years.

When the Salafist militant army rolled up on his oasis city that spring.* he helped to evacuate the town’s museum and Daesh put him to torture to extract the whereabouts of the priceless cultural treasures he’d concealed from them. He made himself a hero to Syria and antiquarians alike by denying his captors any satisfaction save his death — which was accomplished by a public beheading.

At least one other scholar, Qassem Abdullah Yehya, the Deputy Director of DGAM Laboratories, was also killed by ISIS/ISIL for protecting the dig site.

after Khaled al-Asaad

bonepole bonepole since you died
there’s been dying everywhere
do you see it slivered where you are
between a crown and a tongue     the question still
more god or less     I am all tangled
in the smoke you left     the swampy herbs
the paper crows     horror leans in and brings
its own light     this life so often inadequately
lit     your skin peels away     your bones soften
your rich unbecoming     a kind of apology

when you were alive your cheekbones
dropped shadows across your jaw     I saw a picture
I want to dive into that darkness     smell
the rosewater     the sand     irreplaceable
jewel how much of the map did you leave
unfinished     there were so many spiders
your mouth a moonless system
of caves filling with dust
the dust thickened to tar
your mouth opened and tar spilled out

Aug

20

about the virus spreading ( of course its increasing as they test more) stocks are in a good situation . but i'llll wait now for a more propitious time

Germany invented its pas. now the us can if only Trumpwas not a white supremacist…. this is a typical bloomberg article about how bearish and bad things are.. and it stypcal of those who believe in idea that has world. as loog as they re basing things on pseudo news

thus steering mr. cell ophane to bearish humprehyhawkins testimony. at least this ratio is more balanced than the 99% of evaulative articles about the Prez in may 2020 by the 4 major networks besides fox 90% total which were negative compared to the usual

one must assume that 95% of the fed of 2500 fed reserve enployees are supprters of the cattle trader. since the cellophane man is not an expert on eco or markets he mustrey on them for guidance in his testiminy. already the dalls fed kaplan says that the virus is all

dr rasputin says { dont plan on sumer holidays in the us he tells the b ritish( at least oneof my predicitions is validated) i said n or raputic from cdc

never before has there been an open to close down so much with close to close up .its should be a horse race on monday with the billionair bears and the fake increase in viruses ,cellophance man runing aginst the bright retail sales for Tuesday, kudlow ,the signs of recovery

may we anticipate someone from the cdc or another agency feathering its own nest to come out with a warning and a critique against the Trump rally

M. cellophane giving eocnomic update on tue ad wed to what used to be calloed humphrey hawkig https://youtube.com/watch?v=OToWh3nrWn8 as he told Ms. Pelosi "think big" but will he be friendly to the cattle traders as he has in the past 

Aug

20

In its inimical efforts to induce the public to make more of a contribution than they have any right to make to the top feeders the market is infitely creative in coming u p with novel landings. perhaspp the most unusual ever was frida. a large rise but a large fall

A large fall on the two day against as metnioneeed a alrge rise on the one day.. never before going back 20 years like this. included i in the similars is a friday march 13 2020 when the market took the largest declines ever on mon down 281 sp pts thats not a misprint

and yet.. its nto so simple. looking just at the directions over the last 10 years and not takign account of the magnitues there is buo… the decoien came becasue the fed cahir must wish to be considered a fellow traveoer fo the democrats also very salient with biden

way ahead in the beting odds.. there are so many fellow travelers out there that its like whack a mole. whenver the prez is not on guard there is a nancy or a dr rasputin from the cdc or a retired agrarian general or some other of the 3mil fed employees 95% against him to do

him in. the Chair is a fine fellow very easy to get along with that knows nothign about monetaroy policy or the economy. now the Prez has to watch out f for what was considered a safe harbor for foundering

hopefully mr. Kudlow willl have a good ta.k with the Chair and tell him that he shouldnt talk about the stock market or such things as his ignoran e could lead to another rout and the Presidents ire and publc humiliaritie of him

Aug

20

continued bullishness as the biden victory looks like a land slide. Kudlow is on guard

a pusillnimus rise today giving the destroyers and hoped for ruination of economy some hope false that it is 

Aug

20

was out today to attend Aubrey's graduation from middle schoool. illl have an analysis of how the 18 2 and 3 dyas up and the negative serial correlaltion of the fomc days ppalayed inot the hands of tthe bears.

very quiety the nikei is up 140 from the ny close 

followign big moves in tne nikkei in related makets is nto an unprofitaboe strategy yestl nikke down about 1400

you have to hand it to the tripple lay that the billion air bears maek. fisrt they pay for the fanning of revolt and destruction which z hurts theri adversaries. second it creates an unruli situation in the us that make everyone avoid buyng. third it creates empathy with

em[athy with the Serive so that their maneuvers to maintain the compounding without paying the piepr do not go awry what else? of course it helpe=s their shorts and gives them mojo with the pressies. and a visit to the Licoln bedrooom when its apposite 

Aug

20

bring in to create vbad lucl is out of the hotel today and doing his bit to destrooooooy value and trump

https://foxnews.com/us/fauci-nightmare-coronavirus-is-far-from-over the coolet who casinos bring in to create bad uck for customers is out of Hotel again and doing hsi best to destroy value and hurt Trump and economy his whereabouts before election should be monitored

the lst fomc anouncment was witness by a 73 pt rise in sp one can predict withthe coooler out of the Hotel that thisannnouncemntn willl not be greeted by a rise of anything close to that magnitude if you get the (lack of ) drift

its anyone game today with fomc which based on the serial coorr is bearish. also they owere at a good buoll in the last h our. putting it allll together its anyones game. perhaps the anti billnare and social media bils hve day

they caught me and myr prediction at close today. never before like this 

Aug

19

you cant have breakfast alll day https://youtube.com/watch?v=BMTKH-Fwuac nor is it the plight of a sinnner when breakfast is taken away to turn his attention to dinner

nor is he a glutton when tired of beef to turn his attention to mutton at 900

billionaires having a field day myfriendc ontributes 33 mill to black lives matter. and the billlion market data firm proving that the unempoyment rate is really 40% rather than 13%

Aug

19

as the market goes up, bidens lead in the betting odds goes up .this is very bull for sp as the prez team dare not say anything noot in accord with the Idea… but after 18 two and 3 day up, I still favor the short side. they owe the shorts a good day on Tues

Aug

19

after 17 2 and 3 days up i ll be taking the plunge sometime on the short side shortly

anotherpredicitionicecreamstoresandbaseballlandapplepiecontestswillbeinalockdownuntlcattletraderandminionscometopower

lets play the round number game for a while until it cracks 

Aug

19

3350

August 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al Genubi writes: 

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/research_papers/9631.pdf

They say there is a correlation between yield curve term structure and volatility. 

Larry writes: 

Curve is still up and positive

Aug

19

Zomby

August 19, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Zubin Al Genubi writes: 

According to Chair's twitter theory the market should crash just before the election  to screw the incumbent. all the shorts (except Ralph) have gone bust. Ralph will hold and make another 400% on the break.

Covid should be bad and things will be shutting down again like Hawaii where government wants more control to convert business and get rid of excess foreign population. School kids will help the spread.

Localism and xenophobia trends should be strong and the China  cold war will depress business. Who will make our stuff? Not Detroit.

The 2-3 month away yield curve inflection reflects something about investors outlook in a negative vein short term. The inflections are new. The bull flattener scenario is in play and the long  yield continues to drop and the short end cannot.

This should give time meanwhile for  all time highs as the army of new daytraders and short covers buy at 9:45 everyday after the Euros sell US overnight. The 25 points swings are good  for daytraders.

Kevin Kirkpatrick writes: 

Regarding the supply chain in China, it is not just either China or the US. I don't have the latest update but perhaps the following article will provide some insight.

https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2020-06-24-gartner-survey-reveals-33-percent-of-supply-chain-leaders-moved-business-out-of-china-or-plan-to-by-2023

Cold war with China?!! It has moved beyond the stage of cold war. Trump administration has escalated its hostile actions against CCP but little has been reported by mainstream media and as a result most Americans have very little knowledge about what is going on around the world. I don't mean no disrespect but I tell it like it is. Trump administration finally realizes that talking to or so called negotiating with CCP will end up with nothing beneficial to the US. The most recent arresting of those CCP spies who have ties with People Liberation Army (PLA) is just the tip of the iceberg. I bet more arrests will happen. I can even say that most of the Chinese researchers coming from China in the major US research institutions have ties with the PLA and make them spies by definition. Will the escalation culminate in military conflict in South China Sea? The Jury is still out. I don't want war like many others. But sometimes it is a necessary thing to do to eradicate an enemy who is even much worse than Nazi Germany on many levels.

Aug

19

stocks up more than 50% higher than ever before after an unemplooyment annnoucnement

nobody aske me but/ the dept of labor must have some new bosses that dont believe in camp Kicaid. 2. there are a group of pooliticians who are unhapppy with any good eocnomic news. why is this besides their fear that good economic news will help trum. 3. the stock markets 

stocks response to the employment analysis was twice as god as ever beforfe in its ihistory. 4. bond moved up a pt in last hour of trading Friday and this shows that the stock market rise is now over as does the weak close on Friday.5. as the populace became less indiviidualist

secretary of Labor e. scalia has 7 children and i predict that none of them will go to camp kincaid where they sing the Russian anthem mornings . he worked for A.G> barr and presumably would not have tweaked the numbers down like his preds. if only we have new appntees at cdc

ths should be stock market rise not over as it would have been if bonds adn stocks cratered at close

what kind of sense of life do people like bide and schuemr gravitate into where they deplore any good news

ttle trader and her minions like pelosi, schumre,b iden who deplore any economic and stock market gains.tat is ony hope for Pres whostill lags in bettingn odds by a few percentage poimts

nobody 5. if the cattle trader had been in office the marketing dept of the virus would be decimated

stock market rise not over=originally misprinted now over 

Aug

19

the wsj market watch is as replete with bear and w oke as bloom. today theyhghighted a story about climate change having a bigger bear impact than the virus.. moves of stocks u p are attrib to buyers ignorance and indifference to bad news when a mrk goes up it flirts

with mr biden;s lead in the betting odds coninung to soar, now 7 percentage pts… alllthe pre eeds to thoroughly sink is chances is a contination of the bear market. prsmbly he a nd mr kudlow know this. that must be vry bull for the sp

the one fly in the ointment is that bodnsa re finally actingrationally and going down on the crony intervention

https://wsj.com/articles/why-mr-market-ignores-a-world-in-turmoil-11591272919?mod=hp_lead_pos10 market is partying while the world crumbllllles

Aug

19

nikkei threatening to go into berish territoryfor sp

a series of 3 y ellows . shown on daily http://speculations.com

finaly bonds showing revulsion of all spending to bail out cronies at 1month low

market looks like it willl break mr. round and then go down at opening.

two images https://abcnews.go.com/Health/video/police-arrest-father-park-alleged-coronavirus-social-distancing-70037185 one of father being handcuffed for playingb aseballl with daughter,. the other the start of little league in Iowa. apparently the market evaluates both and thes acles tip bull

uncle. it seems equally likely to go above the round as to crater. i learned lesson 

Aug

19

the other shoe dropped.. jOE biden leads Trump in the Betting odds with 45 million bet in the Lott Stossel pool.amazingly this is hapening while the stock markets all over sett new highs and the Greenies are having a field day. why?

extremely narrow day with 10 pt range on al halfhours. the bigs dont like this as they grid=nd out a rofit not sufficient to cover their amssive fixed. costs. xpect some amsive volatilith tne nex few days. i willll provid e an answer to the pressies hostage as impct 

it had to happen . afater alll these 20 day highs i couldnt resist trying a little shortf rom 3087 one is ashamed to be shor t going agianst drift….. but the violence and surge by biden o hate trump tips the wscalels for me

Aug

19

apparently crowds in schools and churches are forbidden but crowds destroying businesses are okay if for a good cause

caa i i get you a drink? how soros?  believe i saw him at the airport. but th egame's not over yet lets play

after a series of 20 day highs bears finally got a break today with a down day, down 0.25, giving them a chance to cover  

shorts after down day what;s going to happen one guess is that any falls willbe great buying opport following methods of Sam Eisenstadt modified by vic 

Aug

18

Recessions

August 18, 2020 | Leave a Comment

 Ralph Vince writes: 

I went to look at past recessions beginning with the one that officially started in Aug '1929. I looked that the number of months, the recession officially lasted for what the highest teh unemployment rate got up to was, what the lowest GDP dropped during  it, and the drop in the DJIA. there were 14 official recessions in this period (Iam not counting the current recession we are in).Interestingly, the correlation between the depth of the unemployment  rate and the number of months the recessions lasted for was .8438. I  other words, the deeper the unemployment rate, the longer the recession lasted for to a very high correlation.

The depth ofGDP drop too was highly correlated to the months the recessoin lasted to a correlation of .75.Every recession saw  market drop-off of varrying degrees with the least being -5.727% from fb to october 1945, the worst -89.19% from  Aug 1929–Mar 1933 Of the 14 recessions, 10 saw market drops >20%, and 4 of those saw drops >45 %.

So I would expect this recession to last a long tim based on unemployment and GDP so-far. However, even though all recessions saw a market drop, th severity of the market drop and the length of months the recession lasted was only +.03. The other factors that correlated to market drop during recessions was depth of unemployment rate correlating positively by .12 to depth of market  correction, and depth of GDP drop correlating positively to market drop by .35. 

Peter Ringel writes: 

Damn Ralph!  Incredible call today.

Ralph Vince  writes: 

No but I thought it would be on much havier volume., 111/2 tims what we saw today.

Hernan Avella writes: 

maybe with more volume we get to 2150 by labor day, as you vehemently forecasted

Aug

18

Michael Brush writes: 

So the market got wind of this early and sold off near the close ahead of the announcement?

Futures down post announcement. 

Adam Friedman writes: 

Futures are actually up a little— I think market was nervous it was going to be Susan Rice.Kamala has friends on wall st

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

The reason I don't trade is that I never, ever understand how "Wall Street" thinks when it comes to political events.  How could the choice of Ms. Harris be anything but a disaster for the Biden campaign?  Trump now has no worries about producing videos that criticize Joe Biden; his campaign can just run the clips from the campaign of Harris accusing Biden of being a racist, sexist…Then they can pull the videos of her being "touch on crime" in California with punitive sentencing for black people.  She comes from a state that the Democrats cannot possibly lose; at least Kaine won Virginia for Clinton.  In the polls that his campaign took before the primary contest with Mrs. Clinton,  Barack formerly known as Barry discovered that one of his serious weaknesses was among African-Americans, many of whom questioned whether or not he was truly "black".  What the campaign discovered was that those questions all went away as soon as voters were presented with images of his wife and children.  Someone who was considered a possible liability for the campaign became the essential partner; that is part of the explanation for how Michelle Obama became "the most admired woman in the world''.   Kamala Harris may be thought of as a "black" candidate by white people; there is going to be considerable doubt about whether black people will apply that label to a woman who is the child of a "mixed" marriage and is married to a "white" man who has adult white children from a previous marriage. 

Let's have a vote from the trading floor; who takes the over on Michelle Obama's being willing to risk her untouchable popularity by publicly embracing Kamala Harris and doing campaign commercials?

Michael Brush writes: 

If anything about the current political environment makes sense, you probably have mental issues

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

So, MB, is that a vote for the over?

Aug

18

JEFFREY WATSON writes: 

Do you own a significant amount of acreage?

Say goodbye to the Fourth Amendment because it only applies to your

residence per SCOTUS.

Trail cams can be installed on your property by State or federal

officials without a warrant. Who ever knew??

https://www.agweb.com/article/government-cameras-hidden-private-property-welcome-open-fields

Ralph Vince writes: 

hmmm, is it that much of a stretch from a silent drone over your

property by the government or private party camming the goings on? (not

that I think that is ok either, I do not. I recommend a good co2 bb gun

for such incursions

Peter Saint-Andre writes: 

This very issue came up recently in my neighborhood (semi-rural area

outside Denver).

The answer, according to the local sheriff's office, was:

Drones are classified by the NTSB as aircraft (same as a Cesna 172 or

other small plane) which makes shooting one down a federal crime and can

lead to federal charges/fines/jail time. DON'T TAKE MATTERS INTO YOUR

OWN HANDS.

What if a drone appears to be recording me in my own backyard? While you

do own your property, you do not own the airspace above it.  The

airspace above your home is considered a "public thoroughfare" which

classifies it the same as a public roadway.  The courts have determined

that a there is no reasonable expectation of privacy in your open

backyard like you have inside your home, so there is nothing that can be

enforced if they are recording you on your property when it is from a

public space.

Ralph Vince writes: 

Their argument is pure intimidatory nonsense.  Pure Jesuit MO.

The reductio ad absurdum….an unknown aircraft approaches me, in my backyard, at eye level….there is clearly no federal protection, to the contrary, I have a natural right to protect myself. Similarly, a drone, several hundred feet above me, is a physical threat to me. like every other creature on earth, I assume something silently stalking me has nefarious intent.This law was no doubt paid for by Amazon with the help of deep state law enforcement another commercial interests. Flying gizmos like that should be identifiable from the ground, something with a genuine commercial purpose should have no problem being identifiable as such. Anything without you can assume has nefarious intent.I'm not comfortable with something on Mart silently hovering outside somebody's daughters window

Aug

18

hold alll tickets ordianrily the reguoarities would be bearish but thsis first day of moh=nth. yet the times has a feature article in magazine saying that the stock marekt is crazy for going up and has lost it s value inallowing the public to participate

times says that the stock marke t no loonger gives the public the chance fo participate in the enterprise sysytem and reap the returns that corp make o their capital investments l thus, the drift is gone? as long as there is ignorance of the magic that is the enterprice 

the magoc os decroe dby tjhose who believe in idea that has world in its grip and causes the decimation of economic activity from the marketing department of the virus

the return oninvested capital of the fang stocks is order of 40% and their cost of cpital with interest rates at zero is much lower. the market looks to long term roc l not next year and average of next ten years. this has nothng to do with virus today

the greenies were in total control on friday the last day of month of 30 times the greenies wore big hats sinc e 2019 it wasd nothing special

but even though eveything is donw, sp has never been down this much as of 1 am so one does not refrain from going against times

we note that the cattle trader is active in commenting about market. and this emphasized to me that if female cattle trader has been in the presidency we would never have heard about corona. and her biggest supporter at the cdc would be calling for more basketballl

the marketing dept of the virus does not like thihttps://www.wsj.com/articles/is-it-safe-to-reopen-schools-these-countries-say-yes-11590928949?mod=hp_lead_pos.. nor do those who hope to destroy hapiness and normal life before nov

Aug

18

from Mr. Diranyi on spec list comes an opportune and timeless post R Dirani Fri, May 29, 11:44 PM (9 hours (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8ogu

the odds on the presidentail election keep narrowing to pcik em with 3% pts only 48 to 45 seperating the two likely candidates. this

must be very bullish for sotck arket as no matter whant the pres does or what hapens the media willl hold i against him the only arrow in 

only arrow in prez quiver is the stock market. he must keep it high and not do anything to drop it down as he didnt do on friday with presumably wise man's kudlows advice to maintain the revent 40% rise bak to year end levels.

Aug

18

they owe us a break thru constructal number hopefully we wont have to wait until close

locusts in afria eu headed for worst case slump, honk kong losing its independence nasdaq crates on idiotic pres threats typicao headlines form billlionaire site today

perhas give the bears a little something today to prepare them for the deluge subsequently

Aug

18

naure works to reduce the abundance of rabbits in the seasons that willl have scarcity of resouces. https://wsj.com/articles/the-blue-state-lockdown-blues-11590446582?mod=hp_opin_pos_3 nature also works too reduce abundance of those not prepared for life( the displaced in the idea that has wrold in grip

as alll constr'uctal numbers have been reached ther are no predictions for todya..its anyones game

the grass is green the lilacs are fragrant, and the spouses loook like marilyn monroa and frank sinatra

guaranted to happen. dems stilll hope for destruction and devestation and bust in economy. what kind of sense of life is this. " what can i take from you? whatcna yougive me? the clarion call of an agrarian

nobody asked me but do certain reporters for a major news and data center get paid a bounty for finding negative articles abot the stock market or economy so as to hurt trumps chances. today at 340 was a nice case in pt deserving a good bonus

welll a certain billionaire's market data firm was able to temporarily knock the market down 20 points at 340 pmet on tues but the costructal number refuses to be hoodwinked by yet another anti trump story from the agrarian firm. if one ever sees an optimistic economy

if an optimistic story on economy or stock market ever appears on that agrarian pressie then please alert me and i[ll eat crow raw ,squawking and fully feathered 

Aug

18

all stock markets within a gnats eyelasth , and heading for constructal numbers 3000 in sp. 21000 in nikkei,1,, 11500 in dax. .

there is unequivocal evidence that the prevalence of sickness in school age children is incrediblly low. see phil Karpen on this for voerwelming wihtin and between country data on this. But what was it guarajteed to happen that schools woud be locked down

the reason is that education is very beneficial for school age children. people that believe in idea that has world in its grip are led by an invisible evil hand to decrease the abundandance and survivability of their children versus others 

a good summary article on what Phil Kerpen and all thespec listers have been enumerating for the past month https://aier.org/article/focus-on-the-covid-19-death-rate/ and the reason that stock markets are about to blast thru constructal numbers

victro hugo's novel the manwho laughs concerns a disfigured man , a monster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Laughs who is 16h century examplar of the collectivists who closed schools in those days ( i have to think this thru better)

tow interesting posts from the wsj leettters. 1. Deaths don't consider the factors of co-morbidities. A (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8j83

first shoe drops on constructals with nikkei 21043

one of the pillars os destroying self interest ( the idea grip etc) is to keep kids away from schools these is ample evidence that chiiodren's death rates a re much lesw than the flu. but the other side of cooin is can theytransmit it to party officials and teachers

there is much mumbo jumbo about this with all sorts of armchair speculations that it is possible for a aprty official or congressman or teacher or cdc worker to cathch it. but the empiricla evidence is

no case reported . this info must be suppressed so that shchools remain closed and kids wth parents that beleive in idea hthat has world in its grip willl nnot be educated and willl be at a great disadvantege in life

seond partiial sock fallls dax up form 111000 at close fridayto 11413 now. perhaps 115000 is seocn dshe worthy

mark cuban believes in idea but is often sensible to live with risk. The NBA is looking to restart in late (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8jcm

mark cuban believes in idea but is often sensible to live with risk. The NBA is looking to restart in late (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8jco

Mr. mandel at phil terpen poitns out that themainstrea media is beginning to cover the excess deaths not realted to covid caused by the lockdowns. he suggests that one cause of excess deaths wiooo be the numerous peoople with cancer that had tow ait 4 or 5months to be treat

but here i dsiagree with him. most chmothrapies only add 1 or two months to life expectancy at the cost of totaldsiruption to life and happpiness. teh dellays will not increase thenumber of cancer deaths imho

Aug

17

At the risk of being lambasted again, one of the things Keynes was first to
understand was the difference between economic theories versus how the world
actually works. He was a behavioral economist before there was such a word.
For example, Inflation or Deflation should be equally tolerable by the
rational economic man.  But in practice it is not so.  No one likes a pay-cut
even if the hard currency is theoretically more valuable.  Deflation
eventually leads to lost confidence, unemployment, economic stagnation,
strikes and rioting. ( see the 1930's UK) It just does not fit human nature to
feel better off with less cash.

But inflation works just fine in both theory and practice. (not hyper
inflation though).  And that is what every developed country has practiced
since the 1970's.  Wages generally go up to appease us worker-bees.
Governments can spend and borrow like there is no tomorrow and then inflate
the debt away.  No one really calculates the implicit tax in a decreasing
currency valuation. The rich never hold cash anyway.  The working man doesn't
save enough for it to matter.  Assets priced in dollars go up.  In effect all
government policy is Keynesian now.  It is written into the Fed charter to
target inflation. The Treasury has not balanced an annual budget in 20 years.
Believe me I prefer the elegant work of Hayek, Hazlitt, Uncle Milty and most
of all Thomas Sowell, but this is not our present world.   

It would be an interesting thought experiment to imagine a world of balanced
budgets, decreasing credit and a strong dollar policy.  I posit is would be
quite bad for stocks.  The last time the US balanced the budget was during the
Clinton years 1998 to 2001. They actually suspended Treasury bond auctions for
a period.  Shortly after we entered a 3-year bear market. We are nowhere near
such a world now.  All of this is a long-winded way of saying if the choice is
between having the best model and making money, I will go with the later.

Aug

17

nobody aske me but 1. the sp would have set new highs on Friday except for thecHINESE ANNOUNCEMENT ON GNP. 2. aS IT IS THE MARKET HASNT SET NE X DAY HIGHS SINCE Wed may 24 when it closed at 2069 just 13 pts away from Friday's close.3 its only a matter of a gnat

before sp exceeds the high 8 days ago and then barrels to the constructal number of 3000. 4. talking about the wrorld gone mad. Gov. Cuomo has been roundly criticizd foro the incredible nummber of nursing home deaths in Ny. His defense is its the Prezz's fault since

https://foxnews.com/politics/cuomo-blames-trump-nursing-home-debacle-new-york-coronavirus the cdc and cma recommended that nursiing home sshould take those with virus. since when does the Prez control the agencies whose actual political contirubtion are 95% not

contributions too cattle traders. 3. Elmer Keltonoo has wisomd about futurues trading that is resonant to alll who have fee t on ground. Hee's talking to a wool buyer " hows wool charlie asked knowing he had never met a wool buyer who didnt say the market was on verge 

the mills havent made a dime this year{ the buyer said. The futures market slipped 3 points yest . grease (cont) http://tl.gd/n_1sr8h45

Aug

17

This is, in so many ways, an extraordinary Presidential race.  I have gone through every past election and tried to find an analog, and I cannot.  The 1832, 1864, 1972 races were all re-election campaigns by incumbents who were broadly hated, but none had the opponent's primary attraction in August being that he was not the President.  1864 comes closest with people wondering what McClellan had to offer besides not being Lincoln.  

Aug

17

Laurel Kenner  writes: 

Gentlemen, your assistance is requested. As my son enters high school, I am earnestly seeding guidance on how to be a good mother during these next four crucial years. As I understand it, he needs validation and a clean house in all senses of the phrase, and not too much direct advice. I don't want him to become an adult with mommy problems, and I don't want him to go so wild that he spoils his later life. Specs, please share your thoughts. What are your most vivid memories of your mother during these years? How did she help or hurt? What makes a mother of a teenage son good or bad? 

kurtsskurtss writes: 

Avoid all lecturing/preaching/cajoling.  Instead, ask questions and try to act like a friend or confidante, way more than a parent.  If he trusts that you will not be judgmental, but instead will be a good listener and help him to recognize potential outcomes for various actions, he will be willing to share more of his life with you.  

Zubin Al Genubi writes: 

Give him well defined specific tasks he must do to get his allowance or a specified reward of his own choice. He can choose the tasks. Could be wash dishes twice a week or clean his room one a week. Could be all A's. Control behavior using incentives. Use of authority is useless as is an appeal to reason. Kids don't think. 

Write down the tasks on a calendar and check off performance as an agreed contract. Put in writing for bigger or long term rewards such as a car for no smoking or drugs till 16.  

Big AI writes: 

One thing i'll offer is this: once the average boy crosses the puberty

threshold, it's like somebody poured gas on him and lit him on fire.

most of his mental bandwidth becomes focused on girls and negotiating

all of that, especially in school where there are all these girls who

have crossed the threshold too.  and at the same time, this new

dynamic that is dominating his life is something he doesn't want to

talk to his mother about.

Paolo pezzutti writes: 

We are parents.  Not friends nor advisors nor confidants…..

Not even task organizers.  Our role in my view is to transmit values. Just that. Transmit values which are the main tools to live their life. They will then choose their objectives. Establish their priorities and tasks. Live their sex life. Values are the core issue.  

larry writes: 

Teach him to cook, wash clothes and iron.  It will make him self sufficient

Jonathan Bower writes:

I'll second this. Additionally, in Scouting many ideals are worthy of pursuit to round out a person's character and skills.

Aug

17

The adage  " he's    simple  person playing checkers while  ths sophisticated   person is playing chess".  Nothing could be further from thetruth.   Modern life is  replete with electronics.  , transistors, and computers. they work  on  states of  on and off-  high voltage or low voltage, true or false. Theyese components form the basis for computers.  They  dont use a  decimal system but sometimes they are groupe dont  8  bits of on or off.   THey   binary system  can come up with very complaice=ated and sophisticated devices    .    Checkers is  lie a binary game. you can  move forward only one apace diagonally  and   if there is another checker in your way you skip over it adn take it. it leads to cery coplex situations.   The  good checker  player  mus be able to make  80 exact moves  to win may standard games.   he must meomorize  as many games as chess   and be able to visualize the board.   mot good checker plaerys can  paly 6 or 10  games blidolded.    The level of expertise in checkes is such that  it took  8 computers   mny years of tryijg all permutations on  many powerful computers to come up with a solution. a good playercan  playeven wtih  these computers  ………. the best checker player  of all time Marion Tinseley  constantly invented news ways of winning and preventing losses.   The fact that checkers is a binary game  and by extension a hexa decimal tame by strinigin 3 moves together the way they do in   most tournaments  makes checkers  a nxcellent game for  logical thinking    sues in all electronic circuits and   arithmetic compuations.  chess on theother hadn has so many moves that is is an appropriate game that simulates  ancient warfare rather than modern electronics.  ( tobe continue and refined

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