Dec

27

 Has anyone analyzed these two moves:

Swiss Franc - 1/15/15 (Abrupt stance on decoupling from Euro) Pound - 10/6/16 (sterling flash crash)

I don't trade Swiss Franc Futures, but I do trade Pound Futures at times. (CME FX futures products, front month)

My question that I'm trying to get answered is what would a 50 or 100 lot Stop Loss look like as far as fill? Would it have even been filled? I'm typically using about 50 tick stop losses on those products, so if I placed the stop would I have been filled at a decent price.

Any insight would be appreciated.

Thank you

Jeff Watson writes: 

It would look like a very nice morsel to those hunter gatherers who trade the Swissie. 

John Netto replies: 

Call the Globex control center. What you're asking actually pertains to a banding issue and is something that can be a real factor in a fast market.

Jonathan Bower writes: 

I used to trade most CBOT/CME/ICE products using stops for entries and exits for a decent sized fund. Typically I would stagger the order with slightly different entry points with varying limits, typically a 5 to 10 tick backruns. But when we knew energy reports or economic releases were coming out those back runs would be extended and we'd drop a few of the limits on some portion of the order to guarantee to get some chunk executed.

All that to say is there were times in pretty much all markets, but especially energies, where it could move 100-200 ticks in a blink of an eye and I'd have partial and no fills on lots of orders. So very big slippage events. We found that most of the time that was actually preferable because the market would typically come back to original levels.

However, sometimes you would just know that you should puke and do so quickly…

When I filled orders on the CBOT floor we always told our customers to expect to get filled at the high or low tick… It was probably 50/50 to be the case in the pits. I'd say it's 80/20 now if you use a stop market.

anonymous writes:

There are horror stories about Swiss Franc stops, hundreds, hundreds of ticks away getting filled. I think any speculation about how you will get filled on your stops is just banter. Lets say the next 'black-swan' event is a malicious program inside the CME data center placed by CN hackers. You could have a situation 50x swiss franc debacle. You cant beat nanosecond market making with stops so the only solution is to broaden your risk and time horizon or accept the risks associated with leverage and short-termism. 

Dec

27

Looking at six different factors, Quarterly Changes (rolling) in

  1.  inflation (TIP vs IEF)
  2. risk (SPY)
  3. stimulus (IEF)
  4. leverage (HYG)
  5.  dollar (UUP)
  6. Oil (USO)
Our current market condition is:
 
Negative Inflation, Negative Risk, Positive Stimulus, Negative Leverage, Negative Oil
Notably, this happened in the financial crisis, but also happened in other periods: These are the number of market days in each year where we saw an environment like this one
2007-12-31      0.0
2008-12-31    103.0
2009-12-31      2.0
2010-12-31     28.0
2011-12-31     69.0
2012-12-31     19.0
2013-12-31      0.0
2014-12-31     16.0
2015-12-31     60.0
2016-12-31     39.0
2017-12-31      0.0
2018-12-31     15.0
Expectancy for major assets in this environment since 2007:
  • S&P (SPY):               .02 Sharpe, +1%
  • Utilities (XLU):          .66 Sharpe, +31%
  • EM Equities (EEM):    .42 Sharpe, +36%
  • China (FXI):              .4 Sharpe, +35%
  • Volatility (VXX):         .22 Sharpe, +19% 
  • 7-10 Treasuries (IEF): 1.29 sharpe, +16%
  • 2 Y Treasuries (SHY): 1.69 sharpe
  • Euro (FXE):               -.27 sharpe, -5%
  • Sterling (FXB):           -1.1 sharpe, -21%
  • Yen (FXY):                  1.24 sharpe, +23%
  • Gold (GLD):                  .89 sharpe,+35%
  • Gold Miners (GDX):      1.2 Sharpe, +117%
  • Oil (USO):                   -.87 sharpe, -64%
  • Natural Gas (UNG):      -1.92 sharpe. -124% 
I personally like the long yen and gold positions versus sterling currently as the most sensible given global politics.

Dec

27

The alarm goes off and I am in automatic.

Bathroom 
Drink of water
Put on 3 layers of clothing 
     with a ski mask and knit gloves
Head out the door.
It’s then, it hits me,
Time to run 
To beat the cold 
To chase the wind 
Breathe in, Breathe out 
Smell the clearness of the frozen air
Crunch through the grass
The sight of the gray trail stretches on 
As far as the cloudy darkness allows
But the path is worn 
Its depth goes beyond my hour allows
There’s pain, There’s strife 
No ones to save me, I am alone 
Stillness surrounds me
Yet I am never more alive 
There is balance in my full clip 
My heart goes to its top without tipping 
The cold air brings power to my legs 
The myriad of pains can be overcome by tapping fingers together to feel the soft knits web between them
Many lonelier pioneer than me risked all to laid down this path for me.
Today’s my day to keep my path from the wild.
The miles are all mine.
The cold, the wind, the darkness with the endless vast expanses 
There are always possibilities 
To go on.
When the long night is over and the sun is back
I’ll give it back to you.
When the flowers are in bloom 
The path will be shared by many others 
While most wait for dawn, it was all mine
To test me, to keep me going on this longest night.
Merry Christmas to all the lonely traders on this long night,
Russ

Dec

27

It's definitional that you only know the "low" in hindsight. I can't remember ever seeing a "one day bounce" after a puke of this sort–rather, the first green close produces additional up moves — since there are a ton of people waiting for the first green close to pile on (or cover shorts). All of this is short term stuff–but it will very likely result in a 4 to 8 percent rally off the low. Then you'll hear all of the pundits talking about the "retest". Blah blah blah.

I never own enough when it's going up. And I always own too much when it's going down. But I have my discipline and I stick to it. Kind of like always picking Choice B on a multiple choice exam. Always better to be consistent than to be smart. And it's only lunch time–so today's green could easily still fizzle.

Dec

26

Here’s a holiday gift, an hour-plus presentation from Carnegie Mellon on Libratus:

Superhuman AI for heads-up no-limit poker: Libratus beats top professionals

Wiki on Libratus

One interesting thing that is clear from human vs computer poker is that a key advantage the computer has is lack of emotional response to risk, i.e., the computer never goes on tilt.

Dec

25

 If there were ever a contrarian indicator of a down market in 2019, this may be it. The number of analysts predicting a down market in 2019: zero. (From Twitter)

Ralph Vince writes: 

My numbers call for at LEAST a 40% move from here (closer to 50% really, but even that sounds crazy to me), and no prospect of a recession until at least 2021 more likely at least 2022 at this point.

David Lillienfeld writes: 

With a tightening Fed (not the discount rate, the inventory)?

Stefan Jovanovich writes: 

Yes.

Sentiment, by any measure I keep, is as bad if not more so than it was in 08 — but the backdrop, not just in the credit markets but in terms of energy, corporate profits, etc., profoundly different than 08, and the drop is minor by comparison. Further, unlike '08, earnings continue to grow, even over this past week.

Capital must find a home, must seek a return. Cash is a temporary placeholder, cover for the rainstorm, and for liability-driven fiduciaries, a very temporary one when you have >4% annual liabilities. How would you manage a pension in Germany or Japan? The US capital markets, with our rich return on treasuries across the maturity spectrum and equities markets that have increasing earnings are the most viable place on the planet.

And all this has come about as QE has ended, ZIRP has snuck out of it's hole to viable, st rates, and a divided congress, who needs to spend and screech like a middle-aged woman who is about to cough up her gizzard, will only find common ground on a pending transportation bill (think QE4), so "yes," to your question.

Dec

21

 Last nail in the coffin kind of thing last month in California, with everything going full-on socialist. OK I get it: drive all the small businesses out, and all that's left is google, fakebook, apple, and other bigist lefties fulfilling their virtue-signalling duties while filling the state with illicit Mexicans who pull their levers.

As one small businessman it was sad until realizing they now own it. Every bit of the upcoming economic sh*tstorm debacle THEY OWN. Even Moonbeam knows it.

The land of fruits and nuts. Coming to your town soon.

Dec

21

  I hope everyone is alright in this another of this year's crashes and cane events. I want to send a thanks to R. Vince and his work on risk management, which is the most important part of trading and for his comments on the subject here on Dailyspec. While one always likes to buy near the bottom, it is too easy to get over leveraged, especially in these multiple sigma events, and get hurt before the inevitable bounce comes.

Jim Sogi writes: 

But you must, MUST be loading up here. You have to.

New highs will come and be well-exceeded, and likely in 2019. Every major market crack has been exceeded. This is pure emotion, Mr. Market making hay out of the imminent impeachment 6 months away.

This is not a game of brains but of patience and nerve. I hate it. I would have been happier as a bad priest.

Dec

19

I Suspect, from anonymous

December 19, 2018 | 1 Comment

 I suspect that a hard Brexit is likely for two reasons:

1. May's inability to get anyone completely on the same page as her;

2. German stubbornness. Brussels has become like Washington, where to paraphrase Kennedy "the efficiency of the French combines with the diplomatic skills and courtesy of the Germans." (For the record, my background is German)

It is not in Trumps best interest to have London fall out of bed from financial stress during this window of at least six months. Therefore, I expect serious back channel conversations between his team and the Fed to take the pressure off. That means focus on the front end curves for both countries.

If the Fed becomes tone deaf, look for back channels with the big banks and the ABA.

It's getting more pressing to do more than pause. It also gives May ammo to clean out MI5/MI6 of deadwood and clowns.

The U.K. needs to remember their place in the scheme of things.

anonymous writes: 

I subscribe to the following thought: There will be a trade deal–the mutual trade volumes are simply too big. A hard Brexit (an exit of the UK from the EU without a trade deal) will cause bilateral trade agreements, later. This would severely weaken the EU as a institution. This places UK in the stronger negotiation position today. The EU negotiates for its existence–the UK "only" negotiates for trade.

The British domestic debate dominates the news–because they have free exchange of thoughts. The media on the continent is brought into line–there is no Brexit debate. (How can a topic be so controversial within UK–and on other side of the channel–all are of the same opinion?)

For Germany the EU is very important–again this places the UK in the stronger position. As usual in Europe–the timing is the big question mark–most likely drawn out. It would be not unusual to first have a hard Brexit and later a UK-EU trade deal (again with the same power distribution) There is already an US-UK trade deal in the pipeline.

Dec

19

I've never seen so many under 100 bucks.

Dec

18

 One part of the Civil War that escapes almost all notice is how the United States paid for a war with a debt explosion that dwarfs everything done since 1940 - Congress and Roosevelt's first war budget. The current crisis is trivial by comparison. By 1861 year-end the Treasury was spending in a day what it had spent in two weeks the year before. But where did the money come from? Murray Rothbard and many other believers in whole number banking say Greenbacks and Jay Cooke. Er, not quite. The total issuance of Greenbacks was 8% of the total war cists, and Jay Cooke was the underwriter, not the final purchaser. The surprising answer is the people of the U.S. The public bought the bonds.

My wacky thesis is that we are seeing the beginnings of a similar event: U.S. savers will fund the Treasury's borrowings. They may, as Mr. Gundlach predicts, demand 6%; that was the peak rate for the 10/20s that Cooke sold. But, the demand will be there from domestic holders of dollars.

"Who Exactly Mopped up $1.33 Trillion of New Us Government Debt Over the Past 12 Months?"

Dec

18

With regard to fundamental (macroeconomic data), none suggest recession.  If there is any suggestion, it would be for a market correction.  That specific data (a longer-term view of Treasury tax revenues) is complicated because there are only four historical examples, not enough for reliability.  However even that data seems to have run its course, as a short-term view of Treasury payroll tax receipts has turned up, meaning that the December Jobs Report will be more positive than expected.  You might wonder how we know that when we are only halfway through December, but in reality the end date for that data collection is last Friday (the 14th), which is already available.  So, expect some bullish data.

A quasi-fundamental piece of data we examine is the relationship between debt and equity.  Specifically, we monitor the moving correlation of stocks with bonds.  We view this as a fundamental item rather than a technical one, although it originates within the markets.  The most bullish scenario is when both stocks and bonds are moving higher, which is not currently happening.  But it is not convincingly so; it could reverse in a heartbeat.

Our technical picture is weighted more on the bullish side.  Of particular interest is the calm being exhibited by the volume in options, both that of individual equities and indices, the latter being particularly used to hedge bets.  In short, there is no panic there.  So the players there are either foolishly complacent or simply not worried.  We also monitor the sentiment difference between professionals and amateurs.  It is quite clear that the amateurs are those who are in panic mode.  

If we were to go further and examine breadth, specifically the advance-decline series of both issues and volume, that data has turned upward.  

Our long-term experience is that whenever there is a disagreement between fundamental and technical factors, go with the technical.  The technical items measure decisions having been made by real players, which does not always describe the fundamental items.

The real problem is political.  We have a much different journalistic environment that we have ever experienced.  Not only does the press hope to bury the President, but also the economy.  Hence the rise of Socialist “stars”.  We do not know how to deal with that, other than it is wishful thinking on the part of the Fourth Estate, a group that historically never invests.  We would expect such wishful thinking to go unrewarded.  

My apologies for the lack of charts proving my points, but there is just too much data to represent.

Dec

18

"Investors Have Nowhere to Hide as Stocks, Bonds and Commodities All Tumble"

Certainly not our Mr Brush…bonds, grains and meats have rallied.

Ralph Vince writes: 

Several months ago, the major news organizations, in a fit of grotesque hubris, announced their joint commitment to intensifying their efforts to malign the current administration.

We have watched this play out in the realm of financial news as well (which has been further diminished in recent years by the loss of some greats, e.g. Abelson, etc., to be replaced with vaccuous amateurs). Specifically, the notion of "The longest expansion in US history," (the definition of which has never been provided despite my prodding, directly and personally and off-the-record), the recent yield curve "inversion" fallacy, etc.

Has anyone seen a comparative study of the years 1929-1940 and 2005-2016?

This makes it all-the-more imperative now to do one's own homework, maintain one's own statistics, disregard the shrill sirens and observe, distinguish and conclude.

anonymous writes: 

It's been slight loss of wealth YTD across all assets with real estate markets softening up. It's been an up market for 9 years straight and that failed inverse head and voodoo failure in the SPX after China gap fade in a time where most asset managers are down only fueled the frustration aggression theory which I think makes this year end tough but ultimately will manifest into a great opportunity. My two cents with no quantification.

Dec

18

India, Australia, Canada, Italy and France (and their banks) are coming off their rails:

"Australian House Prices Fall Most Since Global Financial Crisis"

Sydney's property downturn accelerated in November, propelling nationwide house prices to the biggest monthly drop since the global financial crisis, as credit curbs and buyer nerves continue to bite.

Nationwide home values fell 0.7 percent last month, led by a 1.4 percent drop in Sydney and 1 percent in Melbourne, according to CoreLogic Inc. data released Monday.

The drop takes the total decline in Sydney since the July 2017 peak to
9.5 percent, on the cusp of overtaking the 9.6 percent top-to-bottom decline recorded during the last recession 27 years ago. This decline is even steeper than the 1989-91 fall, showing how quickly sentiment has flipped.

Stefan Jovanovich comments:

The declines in the gold currency prices of wheat, coal, rail and water-born freight and lumber that were the "deflation" of the growth explosion of the 19th century came to be seen as "normal". They became so obviously the way things are that rising prices seemed not only the exception but also the product of conspiracy. How can urban land prices keep increasing–despite their recurring temporary panics–if it is not some kind of manipulation, asked Henry George. Even the prices of luxuries like diamonds (thank you, Mr. Rhodes) keep falling.

We are in an age in which credit has seen the same explosion of volumes that the steel industry saw with Carnegie and Krupp. The presumption has been that these loans were prudent for the same reason expansions in industrial capacity were willingly financed at fixed rates for as much as half a century. What called those industrial loans into question was the collapse in foreign exchange that was the financial carnage of WW 1. My presumption is that this crisis is not about the collapse in FX; Germans and Chinese will be able to pay for imports in 2019 in a way neither was able to do in 1919. But, what will collapse are the expected incomes of the civil service and other government pensioners (other than Social Security recipients) and their ability to borrow against their houses. It will be like the farming crisis of the industrial age–a devastation to the small holders that was unable to be softened because the political majorities would not pay for the bailout.

Dec

16

December 2018

Dear son:

At twelve years old you are on the verge of adulthood with many years of a productive life ahead of you. You are a good boy now and I want you to become a good man. I love you very much and are very proud of your many accomplishments and interests and wanted from my 75 years vantage point for you to have a permanent reminder from me as to guide lines as to how to make your life good for the future. While you may not find many of these points of immediate value, I hope you will go back to them from time to time and find them of value.

Perhaps most important is to realize that conditions are always changing. To be successful, you have to be ready to adjust your activities to take account of the changes that have occurred and  that will come in the future. In business, that means don't go with the same trades as the past. That means be ready to quit while you're far ahead. And never make the same trades two days in a row.

Books going back to Greek and Roman times and from around the world will show you that people have always had the same problems and opportunities as in the present.  The books will make you fly to different places and time thereby expanding your horizons You can and should learn from them by reading widely and often. There has always been a big library in the Niederhoffer families and I hope you will continue the tradition by reading, widely and often. You should maintain a big library of your own.

There are also certain books that you should read as a foundation and beacon that will be resonant throughout your life. You were named after a hero of Patrick O’Brian who was modeled after Nelson and Darwin. He is said to be the best historical novelist of all times and you have a complete set of his books and it is a good place to start. Atlas Shrugged is a good book to give you a grasp of what the world is like.

Any list of the 100 greatest books is good. Here are some of my additions that I have found useful and resonant Memories of My Life by Galton, The Good Old Boys by Elmore Kelton, Atlas Shrugged, The Selfish Gene by Dawkins, The Far Side of the World by Patrick O’Brien, Count of Monte Cristo, The Eye of the Needle, Gone with the Wind, Tom Sawyer and Huckleberry Finn, Monte Walsh by Jack Schaefer, Triumph of  the Optimists, Don Quixote, I, Claudius, Les Miserables, stories by Chekhov, Moby Dick, Candide, Call of the Wild, Hamlet, The Great Gatsby, Gulliver’s Travels, The Aeneid, How to Win Friends and Influence People by Carnegie, The Power Elite by Mills, The Structure of Scientific Revolution by Kuhn, Tale of Two Cities. To learn about Asia read Wild Swans and Shogun.

I would recommend biographies of successful people as an inspiration and a model. Biographies of the following greats are a good place to start. Beethoven, Caesar, Carnegie, Churchill, Darwin, da Vinci, Edison, Einstein, Feynman, Franklin, Galton, Jefferson, De Kruif (Microbe Hunters), Madame Curie, Pasteur, Shoenberg (Life of the Musicians), Steinbeck, Twain, Vasari (Lives of the Artists), and Washington are all inspiring and educational.  You can always profit and be inspired by reading them again.

All areas are connected and in order to be a complete and competent person you should have a knowledge of and study textbooks in accounting, astronomy, biology, chemistry, geology, geography, investments, law, mathematics, music, physics, spatial relations, and statistics.

Try to learn as much as you can. You never know when you’ll be able to use a subject that you could have learned when you were young. You never can tell when a subject that you have learned will enable you to be productive and gain insights. Events tend to repeat and the same goals and problems arise whether in ancient or modern times so it’s good to know history. Historical novels are a good way to get a foundation.

Many of the things below are based on good and bad things that have happened in my life or those of my friends. I hope you will profit by avoiding the bad and emphasizing the good.

A good life should encompass a love of children, women, nature, books, music, sports, and art. To have a good life you should combine many areas of interest. Study computers and all of their aspects.

Don’t give up on things that you’re not expert on. Try to find a good mentor.

Listen and learn should be one of your guiding principles. Don’t argue about politics or religion.

Put in that extra effort when you’re good at something and emphasize it.

Take lessons from experts whenever you can. Research online to find out expert advice in fields you’re interested in.

It’s nice to have hobbies: checkers, chess, food, music, shells, a sport like squash or tennis, trees, mechanical things are good ones.

Read. Read a lot. Lots of topics, fiction as well as non-fiction. When in doubt, read.

At a fairly young age read L'Amour’s Education of a Wandering Man, Churchill (My Early Life) and Richard Feynman’s What Do you Care What Other People Think?

HEALTH:

Exercise every day. Keep your blood pressure down with a systolic below 110. Get a CEA test at 40 years old. Brush your teeth and waterpik twice a day. Don’t eat smoked food. Eat four times as much fish as meat. Get out in the sun at least 30 minutes a day. Get to sleep before 12 midnight. Don’t eat food after 9 pm. Try to get up with the sun when possible. Don’t be tempted to smoke or do drugs. A little exercise in the morning to start your day will make you more productive and healthier. Keep your weight down to under 3.4 pounds per. Cut down on eating red meat. A mile a day of exercise every day should be your goal. When traveling jog in a park or in the hotel exercise room.

Find a good doctor and treat him/her very well so that you receive special attention and advice.

Learn to breathe and run properly, especially on the balls of your feet.

PERSONAL:

Be good to Susan and your mother, be guided by Roy, and try to be friendly and appreciative with all your sisters.

Never count on friends when you are in a crisis.

Stay away from hoodoos.

Romance Advice:

Marry a woman who you like in everyday things. Be solicitous to your romantic partners. Always let your partner have a climax first. Never force your partner to do something she doesn’t want to do. All romance should be at least 10 minutes. When the brain in your penis and your head differ, go with your head. Always give your girlfriend more than she gives you. A good test of a girlfriend is to think about how you think she’ll behave in adversity. Never say anything bad about a friend’s girlfriend.

Look at your girlfriend’s mother before marrying her to see what her character and looks are when she’s 50 or 60.

Don’t spend more than an hour a day on computer games.

The best friends you’ll have are your relatives. They are the only ones you can count on.

Try to stay close in business and personal life with people who good things happen to.

You are not what you eat, or what you drive or where you live. You are you. And if that is not working out for you, changing your diet or car or home will not fix the problem.

Video games may not make you violent, but they certainly do not make you a better son, student or friend. Play them sparingly.

You only get out of something what you put into it, so are you spending time now on something that will give you back what you want?

Sleep will not solve all of your problems, but not sleeping will create new ones.

Never let your sisters down, they are irreplaceable and will be your longest friendship in life and, one day, will be the only people who remember your childhood.

Be the kind of boss, teacher, father, and friend that you had, or wish you had.

Choose your friends wisely. If they are jerks, you will not be far behind.

Try to spend your time with friends that you admire                                                                                                         
Calling your parents for no special reason is always a good idea.

Never assume anything about another person’s wealth, health or happiness.  All too often one is mistaken.

Remember that other people are the same as you. They have the same feelings and the same thoughts.

There are bad people. Avoid them. Don't let them engage you. Walk away.

It’s not enough to be smart. Work harder than the next guy, practice more, try harder.  When you’re young and smart everything seems easy and it can breed complacency.

Clean up your own house before you start criticizing anyone else or the world.

Remember not everyone thinks the same way you do: This isn't about opinions. It's about the ability to process information, debate, discuss. It's important to remember your mind may work differently than everyone else’s.

Life is 10% what happens to you, and 90% in how you react. Be agile, open, and willing to understand that things don't end up how you might plan.

Don’t care what other people think. Live based on your value system and beliefs and ignore what other people think.

Pick a baseball team. Stay a fan through good, bad and ugly. Learn to love the game as it has much to teach you if your listen.

Be good. That’s what my father wrote to me on my 13th birthday. The Boy Scout creed, is a good place to start. Be trustworthy, loyal, helpful, friendly, courteous, cheerful, thrift, brave and clean. If you follow these guidelines along with the advice in this letter you will grow up to be a productive, healthy, and successful man.

FINANCE:

Never get in over your head. Never sell short. Buy and hold is the best strategy. Stocks have gone up 50,000 fold in the last 110 years so it’s a good place to put any savings. Get up early in the morning. Don’t do anything illegal. You’ll never be able to get restitution if you do. Always keep something in reserve. Beware of down Fridays. Count whenever you can. Be mindful of stopping when you have a good gain rather than what most people do in stopping at a big loss. Remember that you have to get out of an investment as well as getting in. That means that you have to take account of the liquidity of your position. When there is little liquidity the other side will often form pools and cliques against you. Take account of the vig or rake on all investments. That’s a constant. And you can’t overcome a big rake or vig of say more than 1/30 the of your expected gain or loss. Be mindful of ever-changing cycles. Read Bacon (Secrets of Professional Turf Betting). Remember deception is everywhere. Things are seldom what they seem. The spider and plants have a million ways of hiding the true or emphasizing the false. Human have all these deceptions plus what they have learned from nature, war, and politics.

Remember to put all deals in writing. Take account of the potential worst case scenarios and put what you’ll do (for example a buyout agreement) in writing.

Negotiate everything.

Don’t be concerned about the dollar or the clock but think for the long term.

When you lend money to a friend, don’t expect to get it back.

Don’t settle your disputes with litigation or lawyers as the bills will be greater than any expectation of recovery.

A good accountant is very helpful and knowledge of accounting is very useful.

When you buy collectibles as investments, always buy the best. Usually it pays to buy the more expensive items rather than the cheapest.

When you are way up, have a point where you would liquidate after you’ve lost a certain amount.

Make sure you value your time when taking into account the cost of any activity.

Learn about real estate as well as stocks.

Be generous and fair. Never cheat.

If a man can beat you, walk him, i.e. don’t play poker with a man named Doc.

Covering your tracks reveals a faulty character. Real men own up to their mistakes, apologize and try to put things right.

Boldness always trumps brilliance. Just make sure you can back it up – at least most of it.

It's okay to fail. Take lessons away from every failure and use it in future endeavors. All the best athletes have learned more from their defeats than their victories. See edspec on Lacoste for this.

Avoid local bias - remember that if two or three people tell you something, doesn't make it so.

Travel is good. It widens your perspective and give you new ideas. Leave the United States for at least a week every two years.

If you don't like your job, quit. Quit the moment you feel like you're only doing it for money. Don't waste your time and life (especially youth) on things that do not interest you. You'll find money elsewhere.

GET EVERYTHING IN WRITING. Don't start any job without a contract with terms in place. If someone owes you a debt, get a promissory note. Hard lesson to learn because you'll probably get hit once or twice before you learn this one, as I did.

Always ask “What’s in it for me?” Saying NO leaves you more power than YES as you can change a no to a yes much easier.

It's okay to fail. Take lessons away from every failure and use it in future endeavors.

The one thing that is constant is change. Be ready to adjust.

Remember, even though it sometimes I expect too much of you, I am proud of you and I love you very much.

Dec

16

"Insiders Are Buying Heavily as the Crowd Continues Selling"

Steve Ellison writes: 

Attached is a graph of the Vickers insider ratio. They consider any insider sell:buy ratio under 2:1 to be bullish. The current 8-week average ratio is 1.46:1. Given that an 8-week average is mathematically equal to a centered moving average 3.5 weeks ago, this suggests insiders have been buying since last month.

Leandro Toriano writes: 

This has been a tough year, much tougher than the mere declines in the broad markets would indicate. Yet, throughout this year, every metric I keep has remained positive. Each week, I watch the EPS on the S&P 500 tick upwards (something that was not occurring from 2014Q4 through 2016Q1).

It's a correction in a bull market, of the 1984 or 1994-type (and, politially, more like the latter).

In the past few weeks however, the major sentiment gauges - the contango structure of Vix futures and the AAII sentiment data have reached levels rarely seen, and when they have been to these levels, protracted market run-ups lasting of at least a year ot two have followed. I think recession is entirely off the table in 2019, perhaps even 2020, and fits more in the 2021 camp (which is about the earliest we can see it manifest given the 7-year liquidity cycle).

You're not going to time this perfectly. It's a great era to be a buyer of stocks here, despite what might transpire tonight and tomorrow.

Dec

14

I received a correspondence from a friend entitled "is this useless shit index signaling S&P declines?"

It prompted me to try to count something I had been wondering about:

US Median gross rent

1940: $284

2000: $602

Annualized rate of inc: 1.26%

2000: $602

2017: $982

Annualized rate of inc: 2.93%

(Data
sources)

Dec

9

1. While the returns are not statistically significant during the periods of death cross since 1970, it could have avoided all but one bear markets (except 1987, when death cross came after everything is over). Bear markets references can be found here.

Here are death and golden crosses since 1970:

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Dec

9

 I recommend the Pbs documentary The Ghost Army

War, deception, art and glory come together in the documentary film "The Ghost Army," the astonishing true story of American G.I.s — many of whom would later have illustrious careers in art, design and fashion — who tricked the enemy with rubber tanks, sound effects and carefully crafted illusions during WWII. Filmmaker Rick Beyer tells a remarkable story of a top-secret mission that was at once absurd, deadly and amazingly effective.

I'm particularly fascinated by the game of traffic analysis.

NSA article on traffic analysis in WW1.

Dec

9

From a NYT article:

In the past 60 years, every recession has been preceded by an inverted yield curve, according to research from the San Francisco Fed. Curve inversions have "correctly signaled all nine recessions since 1955 and had only one false positive, in the mid-1960s, when an inversion was followed by an economic slowdown but not an official recession," the bank's researchers wrote in March.

anonymous writes: 

Cleveland Fed has a dedicated website on the YC. Lately the probability of recession in the next year has increased to 20%+ some good literature on the subject by the NY Fed.

While historically it has been a solid predictor, the timing is tricky and not stable (can you afford to be short the market at least a year before a recession) and its predictive power has decreased over the years. The evidence in foreign markets is also mixed (look at the UK in 2000s where a decent portion of the time the YC was flat/inverted). It is what someone will call a weak predictor. One would think that you might find a better forecast in specific industries/sectors (eg financials) than the market as a whole.

It's worth mentioning that inverted yield curves were the norm before 1900. Most academics attribute that to wars; if a country survived in the short-term (wars), it had less risk over the long term. Similar to the VIX term structure during sell-offs. 

Peter Ringel writes: 

We had so many bogymen on the news-wire today.
Everyone is free to choose the fear he or she desires:
- yield curve 
- Russia military aggression (old news- but displayed as new)
- Italy risk (old news)
- Brexit fail
- Trump-China back paddling ("China is puzzled" <- this one is real IMO )
- FED talk
- IRAN war (old news)

Probably all a campaign.

Ralph Vince writes: 

Alright, since the media is yield curve obsessed, I'm copying what I posted to another list, expletives deleted.

This talk of an inverted curve by taking segments out is the most ignorant discussion in the media on the topic i have ever seen. When there are inflection points in the curve, which are COMMON, historically, there are portions of inversion, of course.Throughout the late 90s, when the 20 was above the 30 year, was anyone calling it an INVERTED YEILD CURVE!!!!! (and screaming about it, as they do now?)

In late 1998, there were at least FIVE inflection points using the main maturities on the constant curve, and three segments that were inverted. Things were pretty strong in the economy until hints of slowness in 2001Q2.

This is more bull***it financial writing, along the lines of "longest expansion in history," etc.

Who knows, maybe a slowdown is upon us (not evident in any numbers I keep - yet) but the yield curve is NOT inverted.

Russ Sears writes: 

Perhaps they have learned after Trump's election that making the first move instills confidence in the dip buyers Trump optimism. But selling after a big up Trump day the opposite.

anonymous writes:

It would seem that those that believe Trump knows what he is doing now move regularly before those who doubt him.  

Kora Reddy writes: 

1. When T10Y2Y goes below zero for the first time in 250 days (one year) and forward $SPX index returns:

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2. When t10y3m goes below zero for the first in a yr:

  

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3. When T10YFF goes below zero for the first time in a year:

  

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Dec

7

 The Hawaii surf report this morning was for 15-20 foot waves and the conditions were good. I got some big ones, but it was a tricky take off. Some really big ones were coming through, so it did not work sitting waiting for the smaller 15 footers because if you sat inside, the big ones would wash you all the way to the inside for a four or five wave thrashing. The best bet was to have a big wave board like my 9 foot Barry Kanaiaupuni big wave gun and drop into the bombers. I had almost a perfect day by catching some big ones on the outside that came right to me where I was sitting and I dropped in and rode all the way on the big wall to the inside. Quite the thrill. The pack on the inside was getting hammered by the big set and got washed in and took a thrashing. I've surfing there for 40 years and know the spot well.

The market report, though not advertised was similar to the day before with 100 point waves. A volatility cluster, or a big wave swell. Before the big waves started, the lack of vol made trading almost a waste of time, and actually especially dangerous. With the narrow range, one tends to pile on the leverage to get some returns, but after months of 7 point ranges, with each passing day of low vol, the survival stats tell you that your time is running out and a big blow out is on the horizon. The other thing is when the big waves come, got to be ready to charge, as well as being prepared for a thrashing.

Dec

6

I recommend to the group the TV show on Netflix Turn: Washington's Spies. It's based on the book Washington's Spies: the Story of America's First Spy Ring I believe. I enjoyed the series very much!

Ralph Vince writes: 

Turn is excellent. I second Scott's motion.

Dec

6

A good disguise book:

The Master of Disguise: My Secret Life in the CIA

Dec

6

A friend said to me: "I was in Chicago for a quant conference (with Bitcoin PhD's, unbelievable. for $3000/head.) and saw large numbers of desperate urban homeless. In one case a young man was bypassed by people in expensive clothing on their way to expensive drinks, who then looked at their phones while he was staggering, helpless. (I think the drinks signs were like $30/drink.) That kind of stuff is more pervasive than I remember in the US."

No one is claiming this ubiquitous phenomenon is not tragic. The argument is about who, if anyone, should pay. Let's say you are 5 stdev smarter than him, and perhaps we agree you should pay for him. I am not so smart, but my simple father taught me to fight. If you want me to pay we will fight over it.

That is the argument. Against nature.

anonymous replies:

I would disagree with the question "who should pay". It's not a lack of people paying or amount paid. Lack of money is not causing these problems to grow. It is where the money is going before it gets to those needing a hand. The government has ever incentive to keep those receiving money dependent on them and without any tough love for those that refuse to meet them the best they are capable of to receive aid.

We are so afraid of someone falling in the cracks that we make it ok to make terrible choices without any real consequences for so long until many are hopeless. We have made the cracks huge by building these costly safety nets on the edges.

The last mile problem of charity can only be solved by those nearest the situation not those pandering to voters. 

Dec

6

 We are now 2 decades into the electronic world that does not require people to be at keyboards or to speak and listen to others. Even those of us who never trade now understand that "the bond market" for U.S. Treasuries is not an organized exchange but an over-the-counter market in which all interdealer trades are handled through interdealer brokers (IDBs).

As the post on Liberty Street Economics reminds us, "(u)ntil 1999, nearly all IDB trading occurred through voice-assisted brokers, in which dealers executed trades via phone. In 1999, the eSpeed electronic trading platform was launched, and in 2000, BrokerTec, a rival electronic platform, began operations. These fully electronic platforms paved the way for high-frequency trading, in which traders rely on speed to identify and act upon trading opportunities. The platforms soon accounted for nearly all interdealer trading of the on-the-run notes and bond(s), the most recently issued notes and bond(s) of a given maturity.."

"(I)nformation in high‑frequency markets no longer pertains to only the active side of a trade. Algorithms and dynamic trading strategies enable traders to chop a large order into smaller ones and hide them in the limit order book at various layers. They subsequently show up on the passive side in resultant executions. Thus, estimates of price discovery based on solely trade data are likely to be unreliable."

The Subject Line is a quotation from Numbers 23:23. It was the first message ever sent and received by Samuel Morse's telegraph. (May 24, 1844). Without that invention there would never have been an American Civil War because "the news" of state secessions and Fort Sumter would not have been what "social media" claims to be now: instant and universal.

It seems to me that the paradox of the present situation is that even the loudest news items are now squeaks in the Shannon transmissions of information. "The public" and its money is no longer captured by any single headline.

Dec

5

 This is very nicely done and I wish it were even longer, like a Ken-Burns-style series:

The Circus

This four-hour mini-series tells the story of one of the most popular and influential forms of entertainment in American history. Through the intertwined stories of several of the most innovative and influential impresarios of the late nineteenth century, this series reveals the circus was a uniquely American entertainment created by a rapidly expanding and industrializing nation; that it embraced and was made possible by Western imperialism; that its history was shaped by a tension between its unconventional entertainments and prevailing standards of respectability; and that its promise for ordinary people was the possibility for personal reinvention. For many Americans, the circus embodied the improbable and the impossible, the exotic and the spectacular. Drawing upon a vast and richly visual archive and featuring a host of performers, historians and aficionados, The Circus follows the rise and fall of the gigantic, traveling tented railroad circus and brings to life an era when Circus Day would shut down a town and its stars were among the most famous people in the country.

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