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<channel>
	<title>Daily Speculations</title>
	<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress</link>
	<description>THE WEB SITE OF VICTOR NIEDERHOFFER: DEDICATED TO VALUE CREATION, BALLYHOO DEFLATION AND APPLYING THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD IN FINANCE</description>
	<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 23:34:51 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Opinion - After the Crude Premium: Pricing the Product Shock, from Humbert Z.</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14703</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14703#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2026 11:16:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14703</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The market spent three months pricing the barrel. The next 90 to 180 days will be decided by the products refined from it.
Crude shock is now understood; product shock is not. Since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attention has shifted to crude oil. Brent peaked at roughly $138 in early April and [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14703</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>Cy Young&#8217;s Rules, from Stefan Jovanovich</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14701</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14701#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 05:26:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Stefan Jovanovich</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14701</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Cy Young&#39;s Rules For Pitching Success
1. Pitchers, like poets, are born, not made.
2. Cultivate good habits: Let liquor severely alone, fight shy of cigarettes and be moderate in indulgence of tobacco, coffee and tea. A player should try to get along without any stimulants at all. Water, pure cool water is good enough for any [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14701</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>Food prices in UK (or Europe), from Nils Poertner</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14700</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14700#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2026 05:37:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14700</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Looking at longer dated charts (eg. Wheat, Oil etc&#8230;) and knowing how easily every new government in the UK will yield to public moods makes me think. (There were calls by politicians to cap food prices.) Maybe not immediately relevant, but perhaps later this year or next.
Call for food price caps &#8216;completely preposterous&#8217;, says M&#38;S [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14700</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Book reccy, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14699</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14699#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 05:11:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Big Al</category>
	<category>Zubin Al Genubi</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14699</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Who We Are and How We Got Here: Ancient DNA and the New Science of the Human Past, by David Reich 
Highly recommended. Turns ancient history on its head. Absolutely fascinating.

Big Al adds:
He does an interesting quick summary of current paleogenetics:
Your ancestors aren&#39;t who you think they are &#124; David Reich
Over the last 15 years, [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14699</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Opinion: Global LNG After Ras Laffan, from Humbert X.</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14698</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14698#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 May 2026 19:41:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14698</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ras Laffan repriced LNG&#8217;s geopolitical risk premium, and the market structure that existed through 2025 can no longer be assumed.
On March 18 and 19, 2026, Iranian missile and drone strikes on QatarEnergy&#8217;s Ras Laffan Industrial City damaged two of fourteen LNG trains and one of two gas-to-liquids facilities. The result is the largest single supply [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14698</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>List member Duncan Coker&#8217;s music</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14697</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14697#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2026 16:45:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Duncan Coker</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14697</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Late bloomer: Boulder singer-songwriter Duncan Coker drops long-awaited debut
Longtime Boulder singer-songwriter Duncan Coker has been honing his craft ever since he picked up his first guitar as a New Jersey teenager four decades ago. It was a Fender Squier, and it opened the door to a love for performing that&#8217;s going strong to this day.
After [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14697</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A deck of cards, from Jeff Watson</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14696</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14696#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 17:50:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Jeff Watson</category>
	<category>Big Al</category>
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14696</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
A standard deck of cards contains 52! combinations after riffle shuffling at least 7 times to ensure randomness. Expressed as a number, there are 8.06&#215;10^67 total combinations. To put this in perspective, there are  4.37&#215;10^17 seconds since the big bang. It is estimated there are 5&#215;10^18 grains of sand and 10^50 atoms on earth. [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14696</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Sentiment, from Steve Ellison</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14695</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14695#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2026 15:21:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Steve Ellison</category>
	<category>Jeffrey Hirsch</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14695</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here is my three-year graph of AAII&#39;s sentiment survey. I ignore the neutral voters and calculate the bullish percentage as = Bullish / (Bullish + Bearish).

Sentiment as measured by this survey is middle-of-the-road, and has not had any extreme readings since the tariff tantrum in April 2025. The recent high was 63.7% on January 14, [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14695</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Dr. Pete Earle provides an Austrian view of the AI buildout</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14694</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14694#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2026 23:56:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Peter Earle</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14694</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Artificial Intelligence, Real Misallocation
Artificial intelligence may well be the most important technological development of the coming decade-and that is exactly why the current capital surge around it warrants skepticism. History is littered with transformative innovations that were nonetheless disastrously overbuilt and mispriced in their early phases. Austrian Business Cycle Theory was never a children&#8217;s story [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14694</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A dream group</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14693</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14693#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 May 2026 19:55:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Victor Niederhoffer</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14693</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[i   dreamed   that   galton,   sherlock   holmes,  and  gilbert  and  sullivan   attend   a    performance    of   mikado  together.
The Mikado 1966, D&#39;Oyly Carte Opera Company, Gilbert &#38; Sullivan
Vic&#39;s X/twitter feed
]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14693</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Study of Deception, from Sushil Kedia</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14692</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14692#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 May 2026 21:12:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Sushil Kedia</category>
	<category>Rich Bubb</category>
	<category>Big Al</category>
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
	<category>William Huggins</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
	<category>Oliver Joseph</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14692</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
The Chair has emphasized the value of studying and understanding deception endlessly, I believe. 
Now, if I wish to focus and devote my energies to be thoroughly studious about it, I urge my requests below are not misunderstood as a lazy desire, but an earnest and keen wish to be methodical about it.
What would the [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14692</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>ChatGPT moment for robotics?, from Humbert Q.</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14691</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14691#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2026 22:25:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
	<category>Big Al</category>
	<category>Dendi Suhubdy</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14691</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#39;ve Covered Robots for Years. This One Is Different
From sorting chicken nuggets to screwing in lightbulbs, Eka&#8217;s robotic claw feels like we&#39;re approaching a ChatGPT moment for the physical world.
Dendi Suhubdy offers deep analysis:
I have put some thought into that:
The Perception&#8211;Planning Gap: What&#39;s Actually Hard About Visual AI in 2026
The thesis I want to defend [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14691</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A tug-of-war within America’s deregulated power markets, from Humbert X.</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14690</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14690#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2026 16:51:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
	<category>Bud Conrad</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14690</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today, we are witnessing a tug-of-war within America&#8217;s deregulated power markets. It&#39;s between those advocating for free-market operations and state policymakers intervening in those markets. In the process, consumers of all kinds are paying unnecessarily high prices. Let me explain:
In deregulated power markets, energy producers are theoretically dispatched in economic order based on their production [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14690</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Consumer sentiment, from Steve Ellison</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14689</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14689#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2026 05:16:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>Steve Ellison</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14689</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The US consumer sentiment surveys have become completely politicized and useless for economic analysis. When Biden was president, respondents who preferred the Republicans said they felt very bad about the economy. After Trump was elected, they felt very optimistic. Respondents who preferred the Democrats did the opposite. And yet bad consumer sentiment as expressed in [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14689</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Strategy of Conflict, from Nils Poertner</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14688</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14688#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2026 19:10:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14688</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Strategy of Conflict (pdf), by Thomas C. Schelling
At the beginning of the book he says that some ppl just thrive on conflicts  - the more the better basically. That is true within corporations as well, everywhere we can see it on world stage.
&#8211; THE RETARDED SCIENCE OF INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY
Among diverse theories of conflict&#8212;corresponding [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14688</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>Longtime List member Will Weaver on edges, from Steve Ellison</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14687</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14687#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 19:21:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>Steve Ellison</category>
	<category>Zubin Al Genubi</category>
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14687</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What Makes a Trading Strategy Work?
In quant trading finding an alpha is not enough.
What is the edge you have that others do not?
A backtest is not the hard part.
The hard part is explaining why the opportunity exists, why others have not competed it away, and why it should continue to exist in the future.
In practice, [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14687</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How to account on the principle of ever changing cycles?, from Asindu Drileba</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14686</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14686#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2026 18:58:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>Steve Ellison</category>
	<category>Jeffrey Hirsch</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14686</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This principle outlines the idea that markets change their behaviour. For example:
- the 13th business day of the month made money for 5 years ( lost for some days in the year, but overall ended the year profitable)
then the market changes and
- the same 13th business day of the month loses money for 5 years [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14686</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>More on Sun Tzu, from Stefan Jovanovich</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14685</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14685#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 2026 22:09:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Stefan Jovanovich</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14685</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since Americans have been messing with the rest of the world ever since 1775 (our first act of rebellion was to invade Quebec), could we begin looking for historical parallels from our own history before we get to the Turning Points view?  The first reference to The Art of War in U.S. military literature [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14685</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Art of War by Sun Tzu, from Q. Humbert (Updated)</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14682</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14682#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2026 05:16:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
	<category>Steve Ellison</category>
	<category>Jeffrey Hirsch</category>
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
	<category>Kiran Kaur</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14682</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Good book to re-read. Are all those crisis meetings are just choreography?  In order to &#34;sell&#34; something unpopular (a war) to the managed masses in the West (or whatever system there is in Iran respectively). Humanitarian aid talks often precede wars as well.
Jeffrey Hirsch offers:
Art of the Deal. Seasonality edition
Nils Poertner responds:
Top notch analysis! [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14682</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ellen Langer experiment, from Q. Humbert</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14684</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14684#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Apr 2026 05:04:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14684</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2014 NYT reports about the Professor Ellen Langer experiment on how the mindset affects aging (or can reverse it).
Back in the 1980s, Senior citizens (some of them on crutches) were invited into a hotel with furniture /music reminding them at the time they were young - and they weren&#39;t allowed to speak about illnesses or [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14684</wfw:commentRSS>
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