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<channel>
	<title>Daily Speculations</title>
	<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress</link>
	<description>THE WEB SITE OF VICTOR NIEDERHOFFER: DEDICATED TO VALUE CREATION, BALLYHOO DEFLATION AND APPLYING THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD IN FINANCE</description>
	<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2026 15:47:18 +0000</pubDate>
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			<item>
		<title>Video by the Senator: &#8220;Is a Year-End Stock Market Rally Coming?&#8221;, from Steve Ellison</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14758</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14758#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2026 15:47:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>Steve Ellison</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14758</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Is a Year-End Stock Market Rally Coming?
]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14758</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Corporations and Interest, from David Lilienfeld</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14757</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14757#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2026 22:02:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Stefan Jovanovich</category>
	<category>Steve Ellison</category>
	<category>David Lilienfeld</category>
	<category>Peter Penha</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14757</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In reading about the relationship between England and the Netherlands in the development of joint stock companies, as Russell Shorto describes in Amsterdam and also in The Island at the Center of the World, not unlike the relationship between Rome and Greece, respectively, I have to wonder if the idea of the modern corporation developed [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14757</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>Causation is not correlation, from Larry Williams</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14756</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14756#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:16:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
	<category>Stefan Jovanovich</category>
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
	<category>Adam Grimes</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14756</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Of course, we always say correlation is not causation, but it goes the other way around as well. Let me explain. Years ago, when I lived in Monterey and Carmel, California, a friend of mine sold radio advertising for a country-western station. Monterey and Carmel, even back then, were upscale areas. My friend had a [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14756</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A Statistic the Chair Would Have Counted, from Stefan Jovanovich</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14755</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14755#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Oct 2026 05:10:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Stefan Jovanovich</category>
	<category>James Goldcamp</category>
	<category>Big Al</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14755</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From Buster Posey&#39;s year-end discussion of pitching:
In 2008 there were ~100 pitches thrown over 98 MPH. This year that number was ~11,500.
James Goldcamp writes:
Last spring my son&#39;s high school baseball team  had 4 pitchers that hit 91 or higher in game and one threw 97 and another 95. (this is not theoretical they have [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14755</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>ATHs, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14754</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14754#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2026 13:20:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Alex Castaldo</category>
	<category>Zubin Al Genubi</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14754</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Many all-time highs back to back, lots with only a .5% drop. Since 2010. I&#39;m
sure longer history will change distribution.

Alex Castaldo writes:
Most longer series are a combination of Cowles and S&#38;P 500 indexes. These indexes are available separately on FRED:
Cowles Index (1871 to 1956)
S&#38;P 500 (1957 to present)
Often these 2 indexes are spliced together to [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14754</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>When the Planners Fail, We Must Be Ready, by Peter C. Earle</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14753</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14753#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Oct 2026 19:54:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Peter Earle</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14753</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the Planners Fail, We Must Be Ready
The political left and right disagree about who should benefit from government action and which industries or cultural aims must be prioritized. But they share a deeper, darker premise: that the resources of a nation should be directed toward goals chosen by political leaders. In both camps, individual [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14753</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Dalio, from Nils Poertner</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14752</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14752#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2026 23:24:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
	<category>William Huggins</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
	<category>Ed Kozun</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14752</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Are Dalio&#39;s books worth to read? Am too much of a s/t trader myself, but I have a hunch one wants to brush up on his ideas of deflation /cycles. ECB, BOE might be cutting before FED as well (so it may seem very strange from a pure US perspective alone to think deflation is [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14752</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Writing it down, from Nils Poertner</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14751</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14751#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 20:21:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Nils Poertner</category>
	<category>William Huggins</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Young, more inexperienced specs would benefit from writing down all the observations, patterns, even subjective things they picked up and compare in the future (1wk, 1mo, etc), not just today but in particular this month. Instead of reading research paper no 3241.
William Huggins writes:
i recall a quarter century ago doc Steenbarger had done some private [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14751</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Walmart automation status, from Pamela Van Giessen</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14750</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14750#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 21:49:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Pam Van Giessen</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14750</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For those who don&#8217;t read the WSJ, this article about Walmart&#8217;s automation status is interesting in terms of how long it takes to automate and the savings trade offs (bigger energy bills vs labor costs which may not be reduced though productivity may increase).
For Walmart, Replacing Humans With Robots Is a Multibillion-Dollar Struggle
]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14750</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>Days of the week 2026, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14749</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14749#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 16:30:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>Jeffrey Hirsch</category>
	<category>Zubin Al Genubi</category>
	<category>Peter Ringel</category>
	<category>Adam Grimes</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14749</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Consistent with randomness.
Adam Grimes writes:
I agree that it looks consistent with sampling error. Did you run a permutation test? Would prefer that to assumptions of distributions.
&#34;Hey Claude, I would like to write a Python program to take a time series of daily net changes to the S&#38;P 500 and run a simulation in which the [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14749</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Victor Niederhoffer – The Market Speculator</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14748</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14748#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2026 20:16:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14748</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Speaking to Legends: #9 Victor Niederhoffer &#8211; The Market Speculator
July 01, 2020
Victor Niederhoffer is one of the most famous investors and a true pioneer. After rubbing shoulders with a few of the future Nobel Laureates at the University of Chicago, he started a trading firm and made $20 million from the starting capital of $50k [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14748</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Markets as buffers, Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14747</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14747#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Oct 2026 21:38:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>Jeff Watson</category>
	<category>Carder Dimitroff</category>
	<category>Zubin Al Genubi</category>
	<category>William Huggins</category>
	<category>James Gavrity</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14747</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A quote from myself from the 2007 Spec Party on Vic&#39;s Central Park Rose  Garden talk which I remember vividly. &#34;Chairman espoused his theory of the markets as the mechanism that mediates between government and the the populace&#8230;that causes not only the obvious capital allocation but buffers the power of government to protect the [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14747</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Trend days, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14746</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14746#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Oct 2026 05:29:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Ralph Vince</category>
	<category>Zubin Al Genubi</category>
	<category>Adam Grimes</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14746</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Remember trend days? Recently trade has been, I wouldn&#39;t say  choppy, but with a lot of reversals. The legs are better than trend days in the past, point wise at least. Which led me to study trend days over the years. See how they cluster, and there have been none this year, at least [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14746</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Peter C. Earle on AI regulation</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14745</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14745#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2026 14:09:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Peter Earle</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14745</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[AI Discovers DC
There is something strikingly familiar about the sudden enthusiasm of leading artificial intelligence companies for government oversight. The technology may be revolutionary, but the political economy surrounding it is not.
For more than a century, a pattern has recurred: an industry emerges with vigorous competition and rapid innovation. Successful firms establish advantages in capital, [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14745</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<title>End-of-quarter analysis, from Kora Reddy</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14744</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14744#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Sep 2026 05:50:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Kora Reddy</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14744</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Entry @ the last trading session of Q3 and liquidate before the New Year&#39;s Eve (HNYE), backtest study covers SPX from 1958 onward and excludes dividends.
Click to view detailed results.
]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14744</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>Spec Party memories from August 14, 2007, from Jim Sogi</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14741</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14741#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Sep 2026 05:56:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Jim Sogi</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14741</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This year&#39;s spec party had a different feel than other years, a more mature,  more focused, a more comfortable, intimate feel.  We had spec&#39;s from all around the world, India, Ireland, Scandinavia, Zurich, France, Italy,  London, Hawaii, California, Nevada, Tennessee, Georgia, Delaware making it a truly remarkable international diverse experience.  The [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14741</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>1873, from David Lilienfeld</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14743</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14743#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Sep 2026 16:52:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>David Lilienfeld</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14743</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
There are four major depressions in the history of the United States, identified for our purposes by the years in which they started: 1837, 1873, 1930, and 2007. Each in sequence has been deemed &#34;The Great Depression.&#34; Then another one hits and the Great Depression doesn&#39;t seem so great anymore by comparison and the new [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14743</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Night returns, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14742</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14742#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 19:28:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Other Contributors</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14742</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Disappearing Overnight Drift, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Liberty Street Economics, July 1, 2026
Overnight returns used to be quite regular the last 10 years but the edge has faded. Used to be .02% mean, but this year .003%. More changing cycles.
In a 2021 Liberty Street Economics post, we documented the &#8220;overnight drift&#8221;&#8212;a large, [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14742</wfw:commentRSS>
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		<item>
		<title>Motto to trade by, from Zubin Al Genubi</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14740</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14740#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2026 17:47:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Larry Williams</category>
	<category>Zubin Al Genubi</category>
	<category>Asindu Drileba</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14740</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Limit your losses, and gains and growth will take care of itself.
Asindu Drileba wonders:
Strategies for limiting losses?
1. Position sizing
2. OTM options
3. A friend of mine holds long VIX positions
Questions?
- What other strategies exist?
- What is best? 1, 2 or 3?
Zubin Al Genubi responds:
Those are all good strategies. Another way is to lower your expectation return [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14740</wfw:commentRSS>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Jobs analysis, from Bill Rafter</title>
		<link>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14739</link>
		<comments>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14739#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Sep 2026 20:06:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>armidal7</dc:creator>
		
	<category>Bill Rafter</category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=14739</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Full-time employment has begun growing faster than part-time employment, reversing the multi-year pattern where part-time roles were rising faster. This shift is meaningful because:
&#8226; Full-time workers represent long-term payroll commitments (benefits, fixed hours, training).
&#8226; Part-time workers represent flexibility &#8212; employers rely on them when uncertain.
The long-term historical pattern is well documented:
&#8226; During recessions (early 1990s, [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRSS>https://dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2&amp;p=14739</wfw:commentRSS>
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