Oct

17

 The hardest part is resting on your oars, but 58pts is a good time to ease off leverage. I think Ralph is right and there is more to go. Unlike RG I can't wait to learn patience.

Peter Pinkhasov writes:

Most of the close to close stats I'm seeing for such a decline are coming with the narrative that "but it has a potential to go lower" which I think takes away from being data and analytically driven to make decisions. I think with the large move in short term rates, it's better to use that as an independent variable for forecasting future returns given we have seen a new interplay in the last two weeks between stocks and bonds. 

Ralph Vince writes:

The upmove in st rates is and has been exceedingly bullish here.

Jun

5

On employment day:

up at 820, up 820 to close: 17

up at 820, down 820 to close: 16

down at 820, up 820 to close: 30

down at 820, down 820 to close: 24

(Note: the announcement occurs at 830)

Peter Pinkhasov writes:

With the following, I am very much at risk of misunderstanding the Chair or to expose my ignorance. Yet I think Vic's numbers and my brief research suggest no leakage.

- The pre-release movements do not seem to anticipate the quality of the NFP headline number.

- A case for leaks can be made, if the quality of the NFP headline number is ignored, but then what was leaked? -> The Bond momentum starts during the globex session

- Maybe the leaker uses a sub-component of the report ?

- Potentially no NFP-day drift in equities similar to Fed-days

- (But: N is small)

- (But: I took the numbers by hand - potentially with some errors).

My table:

Victor Niederhoffer explains: 

My numbers suggest that there are leaks but that those who aren't privy to the leaks can't profit from them. The real problem is that so many people get the numbers in advance and that this creates a movement in the correct direction. This is an endemic and terrible problem.

Feb

6

 A 20 year old chess associate of mine has asked me about a possible career in markets. He's International Master strength at chess (close to getting the title), a second year maths undergraduate, has an interest in poker and was in the Bolton Wanderers soccer academy until he was 16.

I've suggested he reads up on the field and sent him links to the Daily Speculations book list. What other steps should he take?

Peter Pinkhasov writes: 

Not that I know anything, but I lost my roll a few times with all the money I've saved up from folding towels at the jewish community center from grade 7 trying to lever it up my last year in college. I think $ is a product of work for which discovering that one doesn't have the emotional capacity to do could be costly in terms of time value. I wasn't blessed with having a mentor when I started but it would have saved me a lot of time and efforts if I had read Education of a Speculator many years earlier. I think trying it yourself with self capital is good start.

anonymous writes: 

Take up some sports. It teaches you how to lose regularly and hopefully with grace and dignity. I suppose chess does that, but the physicality of sports, and trading, makes it helpful.

Sep

25

 I was watching a formula one race the other evening and it reminded me of the racing line. The racing line is the direction, speed and angle in which a driver goes through a corner. Come in too far from the inside, your exit will be poor. Too far out, someone can pass you. Come out of the corner perfectly but be in the wrong gear, you're toast.

I was thinking how many times traders hit a trade entry well but don't have the right leverage (wrong gear). Or come in too far from the inside and spin out before they complete the corner (capitulate with too much leverage).

Aug

29

I am sitting at the Philadelphia Union vs Kansas City game to find out that the park was renamed this year to Talen Energy Stadium. Ticker: TLN.

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