Oct

24

ShuiNice time to read The Education of a Speculator.

The Yen is making an explosive move against both the Dollar and the Euro, not because the Japanese economy is doing comparatively better than US nor EU, but it is useful to make money. After all, all of the currency traders and investors want profits in their own currency, i. e Americans eventually want US$, Europeans want Euro and Japanese want yen. Soon as the game is over, the Yen will lose its popularity. There is no reason for Yen to be this popular for so long. My special best wishes to Victor and Laurel for good Yen trading. It is almost time for me to buy US$ and sell my Yen.

Aug

11

J SogiThe use of fixed mechanical resting stops seems to be an admission of inability to trade your way out of a paper bag. It is also an admission you are undercapitalized. It is one thing to realize you were wrong. It is another thing to give up on the bottom tick.

Isn't it better to trade your way out of a bad situation rather than give more of your money to the opposition in defeat? It is a harmful mechanical crutch. It is better to watch for a better opportunity to exit with some grace. It is better to know the market, and know yourself.

Larry Williams objects:

What if you cannot exit with grace — market goes limit down 10 days? No way to trade your way out of that…

Stops prevent failures and allow one to regulate the size of the loss.

I'm talking trading here; not investing… value investors buy and hold until value changes or overall market gives a sell, that seems to be best strategy.

Shui Kage adds:

The old Japanese market proverb: "Mikiri senryō".

"To ditch a small loss is worth a thousand ryō" (In today's language: is worth one million dollars).

Most amateurs are unable to take losses at small size and most amateurs are not very good traders.

Phil McDonnell dissents:

PhilIf the market goes limit down (or up) against you then stops will not help either. The stops will not be executed. In that case only proper position sizing in the beginning or an option hedge will protect your position. There is no guarantee a stop will be executed at your price or anywhere near your price in the event of a gap open.

There is no theoretical basis that stops should work either. I have written about this here on numerous occasions. Thus the best advice is to back test, taking stops into account explicitly. When testing stops one should use great care to increae the assumptions regarding slippage. Invariably stops will be hit during fast markets when slippage is the greatest. Compare that to a back test without the stops. If the test using stops gives a superior overall risk reward profile then it is reasonable to use stops. One should never think of stops as the sole money management technique because of the slippage and gap issues discussed above. Rather stops are more of a trading tool to reshape your risk reward profile.

There is another reason to consider stops and that is psychological. Many of us are simply unable to pull the trigger when we get into a losing situation. Suppose you had a trading model that predicted that tomorrow would be up by the close. The obvious way to trade that would be to get in and get out by the close tomorrow. But if your system was wrong (and they all are sometimes) then you may find yourself holding the position simply unable to admit the loss and freezing on the trigger. It is easy to come up with all sorts of rationalizations for this behavior. "The drift will bail me out" might be one. Suddenly your plan has changed from a one day trade to hold it for ten years until the long term drift bails me out. So if you find yourself doing this too often then having a preset stop may be the psychological crutch you need to be successful. Better than that, of course, might be to simply write your plan down and execute it as planned.

Dr. McDonnell is the author of Optimal Portfolio Modeling, Wiley, 2008

Janice Dorn adds:

J DornI would add to this that placement of stops is both art and science. It is among the most difficult concepts for a trader to grasp, and there is more confusion surrounding stops than almost any other aspect of trading. How often do we hear: “They see my stops” or “There is clear stop-running going on” or something similar re: stops. That is why when I trade ( not invest), I use multiple contracts, keep taking profits and trailing stops ( on a good trade) and get out as quickly as possible when the trade is not going right for me. Also, I am prepared to lose on a certain percentage of all trades per my trading plan. I used to hate and could not accept getting “stopped out” but now accept it as part of the cost of doing business.

Also, it is very challenging for most traders to “stop out” and then get back in again. Part of the reason for this is inexperience, and the other part is the way that losses are seen by the brain. Losses are weighed about 2.5 times as heavily as gains. This means that if you are down 10% on one position and up 10% on another position, you are break even on paper, but are down 25% in your brain. There is a complex process that goes on inside the brain of the trader that is looking at losses. But that is another topic and I have already digressed from the “stops” thread.

Dr. Dorn is the author of Personal Responsibility: The Power of You, Gorman, 2008

Jeremy Smith tries for the final word:

Everyone uses stops.

Some put them in immediately.

Some keep them stored in gray matter for later deployment.

Some wait for the margin call.

Kim Zussman exclaims:

Kim Z"Say uncle!"

If you trade less than 100% of your investable capital, that is a stop.

If you trade predominantly the capital of others, that is a stop.

If you let the account blow up without borrowing against your home or retirement accounts, or hitting up   friends/family, that is a stop.

If you decide to trade small enough to preserve your marriage, sanity, or life, that is a stop.

Even the Kamikaze had stops.

Nigel Davies suggests extending the discussion:

What about broadening this discussion still further to include the 'reverse-stop', ie a profit target? I don't see much difference between the two from a conceptual point of view, the issue here being psychological (one represents a loss, the other a win).

Can one be ideologically opposed to stops without also being unable to take a profit? I don't see how we can discuss one without the other and they all come under the category of 'planned exits'.

Sep

7

There are many types of intelligence. A short list would start with academic, creative, and practical intelligence. Academic intelligence is the easiest to measure and hence is over-emphasized. Similarly, the readily available American football statistics of yards gained and touchdowns scored provide no way to evaluate the linemen who never carry the ball, but are critical to team performance. My observation is that practical intelligence is a larger determinant of success than academic intelligence.

Larry Williams remarks:

I failed lots of classes — I was a goof-off and did not care one twit about most classes. I snuck into college on a football scholarship. Never had any idea I'd end up as a trader — I was an art student. Then I found my great intellectual love, and my life changed. But at 13, 15 18, 20 I was a was a wandering generality — just like most kids.

Shui Kage adds:

My first attempt at a British A level:

Maths... Grade F (fail)
Chemistry... Grade F (fail)
Physics... Grade U (unclassified)
Biology... Grade U (unclassified)

On my second attempt I managed to enter the University, with honours in Chemistry as a bonus. I know I am not intelligent, I just worked hard. Kids should never be deprived by a one-time exam result alone. In fact, besides academic exams there are more important traits kids must learn at schools: common sense, manners, honesty, integrity, social skills. Jeff Skilling was a Harvard grad. He might be intelligent but totally lacks integrity.

I did not learn as much at University as when I was at a poor local state school where I saw the reflection of society: single parents, the physically disabled, the talented, the poor, the affluent, gangs, the terminally ill. I learned how to respect others and get along with all.

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