Jun

14

I had an enlightening chat with the CEO of a listed real estate company today about their growing opportunities. They target shopping malls owned by non real estate professionals, typically, developers whose core skill is getting the permits and building, but then can't run the mall with maximum efficiency.

So, part of his job is going to these guys, who might own one or two malls, and start whispering all sorts of doom predictions and forecasts, which are all more believable because he's the main guy in the sector. Finally, he says, "It's time to sell and take profits." Guess what? He then proceeds to buy from them, increase cap rates and make a nice buck.

Mmm…I think I know somebody who does the same thing. Coincidence? Oh, and his stock? He's buying, thank you. 

May

30

It is notable that today the largest equity index decliner is not China but Peru, which at the moment is down 9.44%. The index is weighted heavily toward commodity shares, particularly industrial commodities.

A large part of today's move is generated by one particular stock, SMCV PE. Nonetheless, I think these sorts of developments should be watched as having potential implications for other similar and correlated markets. Specifically, does this say anything about what has been a seemingly endless demand for commodity-related assets, stocks, currencies, physicals, etc.? What implications might this have for particular countries, both pro and con, that both export and import these products, such as Australia, Chile, and South Africa, etc?

From Luca Coloso:

The Peruvian index has done +168% last year and today's fall included +41%. This is catching the attention of the locals who are speculating mindlessly. My wife is Peruvian and was telling me that one of her aunts, who has never invested in the stock market before, just last week was recommending strongly to her daughter to get a loan from the bank and invest in the market.

I don't think this needs further comment apart from the public's need to lose more than necessary, the system's upkeep, and the perils of a heavily "commoditized" market. 

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