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Victor Niederhoffer

 

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Writings

11/16/2006 Some Predictions
11/15/2006 Health and Sickness
11/14/2006 A Book Recommendation from a Wise Speculator
11/14/2006 Operant Conditioning
11/09/2006 Delays
11/07/2006 Some Numerical Queries
11/07/2006 A Primer on Correlation and Regression
11/06/2006 From the Jaws of Victory
11/03/2006 Deep in the Heart of Texas
11/02/2006 The Joke Revisited
10/31/2006 Humor of the Markets
10/30/2006 A Bintel Brief
10/27/2006 Some Variations on Happening Again
10/27/2006 One of the Greatest Men & More on the Fantasticks...
10/24/2006 Book Review: The Zurich Axioms
10/23/2006 Some Null Hypotheses
10/20/2006 Drift and the Long Bond
10/19/2006 A Comedy of Errors
10/19/2006 The Drift
10/18/2006 Mojave Crossing
10/17/2006 Rational Exuberance
10/17/2006 The Four Stages of Denial
10/17/2006 Quote of the Day
10/12/2006 The Average in Humans and Stocks
10/11/2006 Very Good in One Role and Very Bad in Another
10/09/2006 Briefly Speaking
10/08/2006 Extreme Values
10/06/2006 How to Act Smart in Front of Your Friends (With Russell Sears)
10/02/2006 Book Review: An Illustrated Guide to Theoretical Ecology
10/02/2006 Guaranteed to Happen
09/28/2006 Buoyancy and the Markets
09/25/2006 Following The News
09/25/2006 Book Review: The Math Behind the Music
09/25/2006 Asian Bears
09/25/2006 Negativity and the Markets
09/20/2006 Nobody Asked Me, But ...
09/19/2006 Universal Principles
09/18/2006 Comparators and the Markets
09/13/2006 A Number of Friends
09/11/2006 Specialization and the Division of Labor
09/09/2006 Beneficent Circles
09/05/2006 A New Statistical Framework for the Markets
09/01/2006 It is Pleasing to Me
08/30/2006 On the Markets Last Week
08/28/2006 An Introduction to Bayesian Economics
08/27/2006 The Beauty of Competition
08/25/2006 Patrick O'Brian's Navy
08/22/2006 Trees: Their Natural History
08/15/2006 An Excellent Way of Gaining a Rudder
08/15/2006 A Topsy Turvy Market
08/08/2006 Degrees of Competitiveness
08/02/2006 Extinction
07/27/2006 On Earnings Reports
07/24/2006 Mother Goose
07/20/2006 A True Harbinger
07/19/2006 Counting Questions
07/12/2006 Preliminary Thoughts on Evolution and Sex
07/09/2006 Retrospective Numbers
07/07/2006 A Highly Recommended Book on Finance
07/06/2006 Torture in the Markets
07/03/2006 The Customs of an Operation Steeped in Peril
07/01/2006 Lessons from the Market Moves of May and June
06/30/2006 Briefly Speaking
06/27/2006 Market Imperfections
06/25/2006 Cyclicality, Students, Seasonality
06/24/2006 Briefly Speaking: On Declines
06/22/2006 Hysteresis
06/22/2006 Compression and Expansion
06/22/2006 The Influence of Anecdotes on Markets
06/11/2006 Cause and Correlation in Biology, A Review
06/04/2006 Leverage
05/31/2006 Betting on Myself: Adventures of a Horseplayer and Publisher, A Review
05/30/2006 Letter to a Newborn Son, Part IV
05/28/2006 Letter to Barron's Columnist Michael Santoli
05/21/2006 Ecology and Markets
05/20/2006 My Favorite Business Story
05/16/2006 Recursive Functions
05/13/2006 Letter to a Newborn Son, Part II
05/13/2006 Letter to a Newborn Son, Part III
05/05/2006 Letter to a Newborn Son, Part I
05/02/2006 Romance, Bernanke and Discrete Mathematics
05/01/2006 Some Lessons from a Harness Outing
04/29/2006 Thoughts on Restructuring and Meetings
04/27/2006 "Make It An Old-Fashioned, Please"
04/27/2006 A Good Market
04/24/2006 The Fallacy of Perfect Knowledge
04/24/2006 Earnings: A Penny Here, A Penny There
04/20/2006 Briefly Speaking: A Little Humbleness is Good for Investors
04/19/2006 Cycles
04/18/2006 Ambushes and Signals
03/29/2006 How To Raise a Spec Investor (Part II)
03/28/2006 How To Raise a Spec Investor (Part I)
03/26/2006 Does First Quarter Predict the Rest of the Year?
03/24/2006 The Importance of Little Things
03/23/2006 Forward and Back
03/21/2006 Quality versus Growth
03/20/2006 Socks, Stocks and Bundles of Trouble
03/19/2006 How to be Rich in Business, Markets and Life
03/16/2006 Applications for Series Parallel Circuits for Increasing Reliability in Markets and Machines
03/14/2006 Probability, Markets and Decision Making
03/12/2006 Book Review: Winning Ugly by Brad Gilbert
02/28/2006 Stocks Near the Round of 1300; Anatevka
02/27/2006 The Smell of Health: The Dog as Diagnostician
02/26/2006 Abelson a No-Show, but Bears Still Rule at Barron's
02/15/2006 The Origin of Species: A Daily Spec Foru
02/12/2006 7 Common Roads to Stock Market Disaster
02/10/2006 Conversion on the Road to Mountain View: Rethinking Google
02/08/2006 A Healthy Day
02/06/2006 A Hagiography
02/03/2006 Some Thoughts on Roulette Screens
02/03/2006 Briefly Speaking
02/03/2006 January Barometers, Super Bowls and Part-Whole Fallacies, by Dr. Victor Niederhoffer and Dr. Alex Castaldo
02/02/2006 Some Thoughts on Selling
01/29/2006 Market Lessons from Verdi's Rigoletto
01/27/2006 Briefly Speaking: Runs, Davos et al.
01/27/2006 Could ROE Provide for A Meal for a Lifetime?
01/26/2006 Ask the Chair: The Inner Game of Tennis
01/25/2006 Baroque Music and the Markets
01/24/2006 Asking the Right Questions
01/21/2006 A Note on Friday's Decline
01/20/2006 Briefly Speaking: The 2006 Jump Ball Bet; Binion's Luck; Linnaeus
01/19/2006 The Sage, What a Card!
01/19/2006 Shakeout
01/18/2006 Thoughts on Markets Inspired by "On the Origin of Species"
01/17/2006 High and Low
01/14/2006 Patterns of Life and Markets
01/11/2006 Lessons and Stories from a NY City Policeman
01/10/2006 Rational Herds
01/09/2006 A Year End Review
01/09/2006 Spec Library Purchases
01/06/2006 Repetition and the Crocodile
01/05/2006 Let's Vary Piracy with a Little Burglary
01/03/2006 Piracy
01/02/2006 'Hold the Bubbly'
12/31/2005 Herdlike Behavior in the Chicago Pit
12/29/2005 War and Peace
12/27/2005 The Duration and Prevalence of Recessions
12/24/2005 Variations on 'A Christmas Carol'
12/23/2005 Dividend Increases'
12/22/2005 Trade Deficits, Market Crashes and Rumors
12/21/2005 Briefly Speaking: Managed Futures, Dividends, Cascade Effects
12/20/2005 The Judas Goat and the Markets
12/19/2005 Book Review: Timing the Market: How to Profit in the Stock Market by Deborah Weir
12/16/2005 A Christmas Present: A Little Light on the P/E vs. Returns Speculations
12/15/2005 Briefly Speaking: Round Numbers at Year-End; Balmy Decembers; the Chairman Objects to Multiple Comps from the Firm's Stock Picker, and the Strong Letter That Ensued; A Conversation in the Woods
12/14/2005 P/Es and Returns
12/13/2005 Bear Corner: The Latest from the Weekly Financial Columnist
12/13/2005 Ephemera
12/10/2005 Are Annual Reports Predictive? Vic Looks at an Attempt to Systematize Analysis
12/09/2005 Goetzmann's History
12/08/2005 A Trading Story
12/07/2005 They Held Tightly to the Things They Knew Best
12/06/2005 Diffusion of Innovations
12/05/2005 Five Variations on the Economics of Location
12/01/2005 Frustration-Aggression Theory (by V. Niederhoffer and A. Castaldo, with responses)
11/29/2005 An Essential Book
11/28/2005 Two Conceptions of Communications
11/25/2005 Vic reviews 'Does trend following work on stocks?'
11/24/2005 Give Thanks for Pilgrims (and McDonald's)
11/23/2005 Large Caps
11/22/2005 End of Year Momentum
11/21/2005 Briefly Speaking: On Dr Fama
11/21/2005 Victor Niederhoffer reviews Fewer
11/15/2005 A Random Bearish Column Generator
11/14/2005 Predicting the Dow
11/11/2005 Antipredator Behaviour
11/10/2005 Briefly Speaking: Stasis; Demography; Proposal for Market Health Tests; Sayonara to a Bearish Scenario
11/10/2005 Quiddities
11/09/2005 Cisco Earnings
11/08/2005 Demographics and the Stock Market
11/06/2005 Leaf Shapes, Retail Success
11/06/2005 Retail Magic
11/05/2005 An Irony
11/04/2005 A Strange and Sensitive Situation
11/02/2005 Natural Humility
11/01/2005 The All-Seeing Eye
10/30/2005 Friday Rallies
10/29/2005 Sports Betting
10/28/2005 An Earnings Analysis
10/25/2005 On Round Numbers
10/24/2005 Dow Moves
10/22/2005 Startling Behavior
10/20/2005 A fitting tribute
10/18/2005 Momentum Vs Randomness
10/18/2005 Average Absolute Deviation
10/17/2005 Leaks and Announcement Effects
10/15/2005 Detritivores and Other Destroyers
10/13/2005 Market Moves
10/13/2005 A Note on Refco
10/10/2005 Don't Fear, the Numbers are Clear
10/08/2005 Opening Moves
10/07/2005 Fishing for a Bottom
10/06/2005 An Epic Day in the Market
10/05/2005 Broken Trends
10/02/2005 The Economic and Investment Implications of Delay
09/29/2005 Briefly Speaking
09/27/2005 Greenspan and the Real Estate Speculators
09/25/2005 Polar Coordinates
09/24/2005 I've got a little list
09/23/2005 Market tales of Summer
09/20/2005 Five Variations on Creative Destruction
09/19/2005 The Shape of Prices
09/17/2005 Music, Physics, Stocks & Buffett
09/16/2005 The Cruelty of the Market Mistress
09/15/2005 An Exchange of Letters Regarding a Doomsday Analysis of Dividend Yields
09/13/2005 Briefly Speaking
09/09/2005 Cane Investing
09/08/2005 The Four States of Matter
09/07/2005 The Wisdom of Crowds
09/07/2005 Recent S&P Ranges
09/05/2005 Evaporation and Markets
09/04/2005 Velocities and Distance
09/02/2005 To Rule the Waves
08/30/2005 Converting Rotary Motion
08/22/2005 Three Variations on Duplicity
08/22/2005 Like an old friend
08/16/2005 An Obituary for Jim Lorie
08/16/2005 Stocks as Mosaics
08/15/2005 Competition
08/15/2005 The Incidence of Epidemics
08/15/2005 Brokerage Stocks and the Market
08/10/2005 Briefly Speaking
08/09/2005 Random thoughts on the Market
08/08/2005 Briefly Speaking
08/08/2005 A Strange Incongruence
08/04/2005 Briefly Speaking
08/03/2005 On the Euro
08/01/2005 An Open Letter to Doomsdayists
07/30/2005 Dept of Hubris
07/29/2005 The Memoir
07/27/2005 What we can learn from Shells
07/26/2005 Horror Movies and the Abelbufflecketts
07/23/2005 Tension and Release
07/22/2005 Briefly Speaking
07/20/2005 The Laws of Actions and Reactions
07/18/2005 The Summer and Jim Lorie
07/15/2005 News Flash: Optimistic Headlines Rampant on Bloomberg!
07/14/2005 Travel through Books
07/14/2005 Tennis and the Markets
07/11/2005 Four Variations on Rates of Return in Commodity-Type Businesses
07/11/2005 An Interesting Discussion of Plant Problems
07/09/2005 Update: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
07/08/2005 Final Consonance
07/08/2005 A review of 'Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well' by Lars Forsberg and Eric Ghysels
07/08/2005 Important Alert
07/06/2005 Models of the Stars
07/05/2005 Briefly Speaking
06/21/2005 Book Review: Data Driven Investing
06/21/2005 Ten Variations On The Theory of Least Effort
06/18/2005 A Review of the Hidden Language of Baseball
06/16/2005 Pocket Rockets
06/12/2005 Inspirations for Counting
06/12/2005 Broadway Review: Glengarry Glen Ross
06/12/2005 Strikeout
06/12/2005 Briefly Speaking
06/09/2005 A Review of 'Forecasting with Dynamic Regression'
06/08/2005 Hot Stories
06/07/2005 Practical microeconomics
06/02/2005 Variations of Tree Form
05/31/2005 The Iceman
05/27/2005 Summer Reading
05/27/2005 Alacritous Buying
05/27/2005 Tech Stock Valuation
05/25/2005 Understanding Dow Moves (with Chris Hammond and Charles Pennington)
05/25/2005 Ranges by Week
05/23/2005 Waiting in a Tree
05/23/2005 A Rare Event: S&P at 6-Year Low
05/21/2005 Review: Glengarry Glen Ross
05/21/2005 Waiting in a Tree: A Lobagola in Crude
05/20/2005 Orchestration
05/20/2005 Freakonomics, Bagels, Holidays
05/17/2005 Leads, Lags in Industry Groups
05/16/2005 Business Cycles
05/16/2005 A Good Research Project
05/13/2005 Bull & Bear Moves
05/12/2005 I Tip My Hat to the Mistress
05/07/2005 Cumulative Sum Control Charts
05/04/2005 Crude Reversal
05/03/2005 Two-Month Declines
04/29/2005 What the Commodities Markets Are Saying to the Fed
04/26/2005 Track and Floor
04/26/2005 Working Hypotheses
04/26/2005 Dividend Studies
04/22/2005 Needles in Haystacks
04/21/2005 Earnings: So Far, Very Good
04/20/2005 Nebraska Chronicles: The Sage's Best Ideas
04/19/2005 Beware the Slow Descent (IBM)
04/18/2005 Briefly Speaking
04/17/2005 Inflows, Outflows & Tax Day
04/12/2005 Behind the Form
04/11/2005 Racing and Markets: A forum started by Victor Niederhoffer
04/09/2005 Briefly Speaking
04/08/2005 The Pfizer Plagues
04/06/2005 Department of Misconceptions
04/06/2005 Misadventures in Stock Picking
04/04/2005 Pitching the Pinch
04/03/2005 The Elusive Altruism
04/01/2005 Monster Oil
03/28/2005 Optimal Foraging Theory
03/27/2005 Hand Study: Window Dressing
03/25/2005 Book Review: How to Become a Professional Con Artist
03/25/2005 Book Review: Creating Modern Capitalism
03/23/2005 Tail Wind Change in Commodities, with Postscript: The Silver Fox
03/23/2005 Analyzing Board Meetings
03/22/2005 Father/Fed Approval
03/21/2005 A Variable to Consider: Distance From 20-Day High/Low
03/21/2005 When Will Disillusionment With Buffett Set In?
03/20/2005 Book Recommendations
03/18/2005 World Markets
03/17/2005 A Visit to the UPenn Bookstore
03/16/2005 A Review of The Big Con by David Maurer
03/16/2005 Don't Get Conned by the Most Admired Companies
03/15/2005 Why I Don't Believe in Trends
03/13/2005 CEO Resignations
03/13/2005 After the 20-Point Decline, What Then?
03/13/2005 Theater Review: "Dirty Rotten Scoundrels"
03/08/2005 S&P Dot Plot
03/07/2005 Corporate Corruption
03/03/2005 P/E Perspective
03/02/2005 Intraday Moves
03/01/2005 Power Laws
03/01/2005 Commodities: 1% a Year for Two Centuries
02/28/2005 Variations on the Big Con
02/25/2005 Statistical Musicology
02/18/2005 FDA Hearings Showed Rise
02/18/2005 Economics of Volatility
02/16/2005 Reflections - FDA
02/15/2005 Spin-Offs
02/11/2005 All Gamblers Die Broke
02/10/2005 The Big Con
02/07/2005 Nobody Asked Me - Feb.
02/06/2005 Competitive Strategy
02/02/2005 External Controls and Incentives
02/01/2005 January Effect
02/01/2005 Strategy by Liddell Hart
01/29/2005 Wedges and Markets
01/27/2005 Dulcinea
01/23/2005 Review of Academic Work on Evolution of Industries
01/21/2005 The Sage Bloviates on the Dollar, Trade Deficit
01/20/2005 Virtues of Being Certain vs. Taking Risk
01/20/2005 Bellwethers
01/19/2005 Pfizer's 103-Page Interim Report
01/18/2005 Resigned
01/14/2005 Guaranteed Losers
01/13/2005 Father Random, Part II
01/12/2005 The Current Account Deficit: Nobody Asked Me, But...
01/12/2005 Unobtrusive Measures: The Story of Joe McNay and the Yale Endowment
01/09/2005 Gloom, Doom and Record Books
01/01/2005 Film Review: The Aviator
12/26/2004 Nobody Asked Me, But...
12/26/2004 Writings of Marty Whitman, Value Investor
12/24/2004 Reduced Capital
12/23/2004 Higledy Pigledy
12/23/2004 Sometimes a Word is Very Important
12/21/2004 It is rare ...
12/19/2004 Relative health in Asia and the US
12/17/2004 Thoughts inspired by the Wisdom kids
12/14/2004 The Election Effect
12/14/2004 Socialist Weekly Tosses Capitalist Coin, Finds Workers Lose Heads or Tails
12/12/2004 Bear Watch
12/09/2004 Contagion and Crude Contagion
12/07/2004 Reflections on Jefferson
12/06/2004 10 Variations on themes of Fibonacci and Markets
12/04/2004 Making a Living
12/02/2004 Nothing Humdrum About Numbers
11/01/2004 November Diary: Idiot Savant vs. Bessel; Juggling Math; A Strong Beginning; Body Snatchers; Bee in the Bonnet
11/22/2004 Anatomy of an Old Time; Intel's ;Bad News; Shakeout
11/18/2004 Vestiges of Jesse Livermore
11/15/2004 Patting Yourself on the Back
11/08/2004 Father Random
11/03/2004 Revulsion
11/03/2004 Election Day Study (with Duncan Coker)
11/02/2004 Frequency of First Digits
11/01/2004 Dolphin Diner
10/28/2004 Nelson Strategy
10/28/2004 Market to Rossini: You Can Get Up Now
10/28/2004 A New Idee
10/27/2004 The Soros Compound
10/26/2004 The Hippocratic Oath
10/26/2004 Blue Market: ""I Expect the Market Will be Way above 1100 by Christmas"
10/22/2004 Casanova
10/20/2004 The Physics of the Inclined Plane
10/20/2004 3Q Earnings: Perception and Propaganda
10/20/2004 Take Out the Canes
10/17/2004 Trading Lessons From L'Amour's Hondo
10/13/2004 Metals Meltdown
10/13/2004 Lobagola Redux
10/12/2004 "This Isn't Squash"
10/09/2004 Magic Squares
10/06/2004 Update on the Fed Model
09/24/2004 Signal, Shoulder, Mirror
09/24/2004 Trees and The Axiom of Uniform Stress
09/22/2004 Corn: A Dangerous Commodity to Nibble On
09/22/2004: Thoughts on Buy and Hold
09/19/2004: The Oldest Profession
09/16/2004: A Conversation With a Great Man
09/15/2004: The Joys of Trend Following
08/21/2004: The Normal Variation
08/10/2004: Quote of the Day Supply and demand vs. oil prices
08/07/2004: Flagition and Friday
08/05/2004: One Notes... Interesting examples of convergence.
08/03/2004: No one asked me but... Victor answers 12 questions that nobody asked.
08/02/2004: The Creative Power of Enterprise An uplifting exercise.
08/02/2004: Trendists versus Reversalists Who is really making the money and why.
07/30/2004: The Rain in Siberia... ...falls mainly after the crop has been harvested.
07/29/2004: The Myth Thread The Power of Myth
07/28/2004: 12 Thoughts Sparked by the Euro near 1.20.
07/28/2004: Review of Delovely.
07/20/2004: A Contest of Extremes. Contest with a $500 reward.
07/20/2004: The Rhythms of the News. Musings on those with fixed beliefs.
07/20/2004: An Interesting Dance. Moby Dick and the Markets
07/16/2004: A Happy Thought. "everythinggggs uppa xcept my widdlaaar"
06/29/2004: Deception in Retail Comps. Tips from a master of the retail trade over lunch at the Century Club.
06/28/2004: The Tower of Hanoi. Difference equations.
06/23/2004: The Darwinian Speculator: A collection of comments from the Chairman and other Specs.
06/22/2004: Summertime in the Market. Changes in the market ecology relating to the public's contributions to the infrastructure.
06/22/2004: Shorting Berkshire
06/15/2004: Film Review: "Broadway: The Golden Age"
06/15/2004: Herd Behavior in the S&Ps.
06/11/2004: A Word on Jobs. With comment by Donald Boudreaux, George Mason University.
06/09/2004: Racquet Sports and the Market
06/09/2004: Market Sins
06/09/2004: Movements and Comovements
06/08/2004: Academic Arbitrageurs
06/04/2004 The Cobweb Theorem. A True Application and Precursor of "Reflexivity"
06/04/2004 Lessons in Bargaining. Stalking horses, substitution, bright colors, simplicity.
05/31/2004: The Specs in Vegas. Deception, roulette.
05/31/2004: Price as Rationer. Economic principles.
04/26/2004: Variability. The central concept in statistics, with comment by Steve Stigler.
04/26/2004: Seasonality Redux. Changing cycles and day-of-week anomalies, with comment by Philip J. McDonnell
04/23/2004: Stock Tradin'. A typical day in the market seen in the light of Ben Green's Horse Tradin', a book we cannot recommend enough to Speculators in any market. With Laurel Kenner
04/13/2004: Never Lose on Two Different Sides in One Day. Strategy.
04/13/2004: Promotions. Pretenders.
04/06/2004: Resilience. A letter from an EdSpec reader inspires an exchange on losses.
01/05/2004: Economics of Location. Vic explores the subject quantitatively after a trip to Istanbul.


Ask the Chair

Briefly Speaking

Read Vic's spring 2004 posts

Read Vic's past "Daily Spec" observations on the racing maxims of Pittsburgh Phil, academic studies of investor sentiment, a Sorosian view of "in perpetuity," railroadization and the economics of location, the inevitable demise of the long-short funds, the amazing persistence of untested shibboleths about seasonality and the importance of volume, the danger of going bearish just because sentiment indicators are 70% bullish, smiles in stocks and beans...and much more.

2005

Palais Coburg, Vienna, Nov. 18, 2005