Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.

 

Home

Write to us at: (address is not clickable)

James Sogi

10/28/04
James Sogi: Shifting Gears

A few years back I had a sports car with a five speed and some horsepower. Going down a curvy hill I could downshift and accelerate out of the curves in a low gear range. As I pulled out onto the highway, I could step on the gas and powershift and make some revs in high gear. Different driving tactics for different road conditions. Before August 23 during the down wave, it took some pretty nimble low gear maneuvering to navigate the curvy market. All of a sudden on August 25th, the market really took off and required some power shifting. A speculator really had to shift from a curvy down hill road to the superhighway and hit the gas and let it open up. The speculator had to keep his eyes open for the signs that said, $60 per hour ahead after driving along at $15-30 per hour for weeks. Once on the highway, there were few on ramps, so it was good to be gassed up and ready to hit it. As the hill got steeper and steeper, its probably is a good idea to downshift and see what is over the top of the next hill. You can see from the numbers below how during the last two run ups starting 10/25 and 9/28 (oddly at full moon), the speed limit rapidly went up to over $100 per hour. Good time to get it in gear. Need to mentally shift gears from down chop to up trend. It takes some experience. I call this new indicator the Sogi $/hr hour indicator.

 

James Sogi is a philosopher, Juris Doctor, surfer, trader, investor, musician, black belt, sailor, semi-centenarian. He lives on the mountain in Kona, Hawaii, with his family