Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.



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James Sogi

Regime Change on the Vernal Equinox

Spring has sprung, the grass is gris.
I wonder where the birdies is?

On March 20, 2005, at precisely 7:34 a.m. EST (12:34 Universal Time), the Sun crossed directly over the Earth's equator, marking the vernal equinox.  In Hawaii the coffee blossoms all came out last weekend and it looks like snow covering the trees. Big-wave season comes to an end, and wind, ocean and weather patterns change as the earth turns a corner in its orbit. Hawaiian surf reporter emeritus Pat Caldwell says, "The northern hemisphere is expected to see a regime change, as the pattern of lighter winds and high, remote-source swell gives way to stronger trades, higher windswell, and mostly small remote-source swell." 

The change of season has a large impact on our world. There are pockets of predictivity for seasonal and weather effects in markets, but they change with the wind in changing cycles. Change is in the wind, whether we can predict it or not. Dr. Niederhoffer noted "Some Serious Tail Changes" yesterday in Daily Speculations. Mr. March Market is going out like a lion as spring arrives. "Very blusterous day!" as Winnie the Pooh would say. Dr. Niederhoffer wrote in Education of a Speculator: "The wind is the Speculator's friend. Along with ocean currents, the other key part of the Earth's circulatory system, the wind links us all together." (p. 100) Get in tune!

It's always good to look out the window and see what the weather looks like and to be in touch with nature before venturing out in to the markets


James Sogi is a philosopher, Juris Doctor, surfer, trader, investor, musician, black belt, sailor, semi-centenarian. He lives on the mountain in Kona, Hawaii, with his family