Daily Speculations

The Web Site of Victor Niederhoffer & Laurel Kenner

Dedicated to the scientific method, free markets, deflating ballyhoo, creating value, and laughter;  a forum for us to use our meager abilities to make the world of specinvestments a better place.



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Pilot Fish

Mauna Loa has had swarms of earthquakes and erupts usually every 25 years. It has been 30 years since the last one. Last time the lava flow stopped just 2 miles short of running over Hilo. Bill Gates just bought a big piece of land here near a failed development deal. Paul Allen owns in downtown Kailua.  Charles Schwab and Mike Dell have BIG places here as does the Medtronic guy, Dr. Bocken, Lorretta Lynn, Neil Young, Jesse Colin Young, Roberts of KKR group.  The real estate market has peaked here. Last few years have been all buys, new deals, new construction.  Now just starting to see  escrow failures, and contractor failure as the boom peaks. Later in the bust cycle come the  foreclosures, construction disputes. This cycle was 13 years around. We usually lag the mainland, but seem connected closer now.